# document

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"Suitability to international support: Some measures are more or less suited to existing and emerging forms of support and climate finance, for example in terms of projects types. The subsequent classification of the mitigation measures according to unconditional and conditional measures is shown in the NDC Implementation Plan presented further below. 5.3.4 Mitigation contribution Figure 5.5 illustrates the emission projections for the BAU baseline, and Rwanda\u2019s mitigation contribution for domestic unconditional projects and for all projects (unconditional and conditional)."


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"Supporting information on the mitigation and adaptation components are provided further below.\fUPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Table 7.1 Institutional arrangements for Rwanda\u2019s NDC MRV management Overview of Institutional Arrangements Policy and strategic decision levels/ Line Ministry Roles and Responsibilities Permanent Secretaries (PS) Forum Monitors the implementation of NST1 and proposes measures to fast track its implementation."


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"TOTAL Mitigation measures Hydropower Capacity (MW) Off-grid electrification # Tier 1 households # Tier 2 households Solar minigrids (MWp) Solar street lighting # Solar LED streetlights # Solar traffic lights International finance and support International contribution to finance mitigation measures (indicate activities and amounts) Technology transfer and capacity building activities (indicate activities) Other factors Development and strengthening of grid infrastructure, including grid losses (indicate key developments) Lake Kivu methane gas utilisation and emissions monitoring programme (indicate key developments) Rural Energy Strategy development (progress towards goals and milestones achieved) UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION NDC progress indicators: Energy (other) Headline indicators BAU GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Current GHG emissions (MtCO2e) BAU fossil fuel use (% of total energy use) Current fossil fuel use (% of total energy use) BAU renewable energy use (% of total energy use) Current renewable energy use (% of total energy use) Supporting indicators Transport Average fuel economy for newly registered vehicles (litres per 100 km) Buses LDVs HDVs Electric vehicles (EV) # EV motorcycles # EV buses # EV LDVs Other activities Buildings and household energy use Rooftop solar (MWp) # CFL replacements Efficient stoves (# HH) # SWH installations Manufacturing industry and agriculture # Efficient brick kilns"


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"Table 7.2 MRV systems needed to track NDC implementation MRV system Key implementation aspects GHG emissions and reductions \u2022 Assess current GHG emissions for all Intergovermental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reporting sectors and sub-sectors; \u2022 Assess Busines-as Usual (BAU) GHGs, where dynamic baselines are considered for NDC modeling; \u2022 Assess current progress in reducing GHG emissions towards the overall target (by reviewing the greenhouse gas inventory), and expected future emissions (by reviewing greenhouse gas projections), at national and sectoral levels, to understand the aggregate impact of mitigation actions now and in the future."


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"Table 8.1 Estimated mitigation and adaptation funding needs USD million Unconditional Conditional Grand Total Mitigation measures Mitigation Total Adaptation measures Adaptation Total Combined Total\fGREEN RWANDA Rwanda\u2019s Third National Communication to the UNFCCC highlighted three main challenges in climate finance in Rwanda as: (i) insufficient funds, (ii) limited budget for the implementation of climate action, and (iii) limited involvement of private sector investment in environment and climate change activities. Furthermore, the TNC indicated a need for more bilateral and multilateral financial support (GoR, 2018a)."


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"Table A.1 High level indicators, data sources (metadata) for the proposed reporting\f\fREPUBLIC OF RWANDA"


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"Table ES-1 NDC selected adaptation interventions by sector Water A national water security through water conservation practices, wetlands restoration, water storage and efficient water use Water resource models, water quality testing and hydro-related information Develop and implement a management plan for all level 1 catchment Agriculture Develop climate resilient crops and promote climate resilient livestock Develop climate resilient post harvest and value addition facilities and technologies Strengthen crop management practices Develop sustainable land use management practices Expand irrigation and improve water management Expand crop and livestock insurance Land and Forestry Development of Agroforestry and sustainable agriculture Promote afforestation / reforestation of designated areas Improve forest management for degraded forest resources Integrated approach to planning and monitoring for sustainable land use management Harmonized and integrated spacial data management system for sustainable land use Inclusive land administration that regulate and provide guidance for land tenure security UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION The NDC adaptation indicators will be embedded in the Environment and Natural Resources Management Results Based Monitoring and Evaluation framework (RBME) used to track and inform progress on NDC implementation towards the"


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"Table ES-2:   Estimated mitigation and adaptation funding needs USD million Unconditional Conditional Grand Total Mitigation measures Mitigation Total Adaptation measures Adaptation Total Combined Total\fUPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION The Government of Rwanda will continue to commit significant resources to climate change relevant strategies. Rwandan communities, private sector and NGOs can also contribute significantly to these climate change-related activities through public-private partnerships. The Rwanda Green Fund, FONERWA, will continue to play a vital role in financing low carbon projects and programmes and leveraging investment."


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"The EICV5 provides detailed projections of population according to low, medium and high scenarios. The medium population scenario has been used as the base assumption in BAU emissions6. An aggregated economy-wide forecast of BAU emissions through 2030 in shown below in Figure 5.3. This represents the BAU baseline projection, consistent with the Vision 2050 outlook, against which Rwanda\u2019s mitigation contribution has been quantified."


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"The Environment and Climate Change Thematic Working Group (E&CC TWG) will therefore serve as a forum for hosting the technical working committee for Rwanda\u2019s NDC, and REMA as the Chair of the E&CC TWG will appoint a core team to the technical working committee that endorses the national NDC MRV."


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"The MRV system also captures non-GHG impacts on environmental, social and economic impacts of the NDC actions that would lead to transformational change towards achieving national sustainable development goals. In the case of Rwanda, this must take into account gender mainstreaming that is central to Rwanda\u2019s sustainable development process. These national and international requirements for the three MRV dimensions overlap and there is value in demonstrating their linkages within the MRV system."


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"The NDC will be implemented across Ministries in charge of core NDC actions with the coordination oversight of MoE facilitated by resources mobilization overseen by MINECOFIN and the Rwanda Green Fund (FONERWA). The overriding national implementation arrangement will guide the integration of NDC priority interventions in the broad sectoral planning and implementation framework as outlined below. The oversight function for implementing NST1 lies with the Parliament and Cabinet. Cabinet will also provide policy guidance and strategic orientation."


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"The NST is a high-level\fUPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION planning policy that frames the country\u2019s subsequent local government and sector plans and includes specific projects or actions surrounding three pillars for economic, social and governance transformation. Within the Economic Transformation pillar, there is direct alignment with Priority 7, the management of environment and natural resources which will lead to the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals and the NDC, as well as Rwanda\u2019s Vision 2050 objectives."


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"The NST is a high-level planning policy that frames the country\u2019s subsequent local government and sector plans and includes specific projects or actions along three pillars for economic, social and governance transformation. The GGCRS provides a vision for how Rwanda can tackle climate change through become a climate resilient and low carbon economy, and projects actions to be undertaken to inform Rwanda\u2019s strategy for economic development, Vision 2050."


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"The National Electrification Plan: Report on definition of technologies (On-grid and off-grid) at village level. Rwanda Environment Management Authority (REMA), 2009. Rwanda: State of Environment and Outlook Report 2009. Kigali: Rwanda Environment Management Authority-Republic of Rwanda. REMA, 2015. Baseline Climate Change Vulnerability Index for Rwanda. Kigali: REMA. RNRA, 2015. National Water Resources Master Plan, Kigali, Rwanda. SEI, 2009. Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning (LEAP). Community for Energy, Environment and Development, Stockholm Environment Institute, 25th April 2009. See:   Sirven, P., Gotanegre, J.F. et Prioul, C., 1974."


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"The Nile basin drains around 67% of the national territory, with 90% of country\u2019s water (Sirven et al, 1974). Rwanda\u2019s territory is covered with diverse ecosystems which include natural ecosystems (mountain rainforests, gallery forests, savannah woodland, wetlands and aquatic forests), forested area and agro\u2010 ecosystems."


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"The Office of the Prime Minister coordinates all government programmes of NST1 with technical coordination undertaken by the Permanent Secretary\u2019s Forum and supported by the Development Partners Coordination Group (DPCG). Sector Working groups (which bring together Government, Development partners, Private sector and civil society) follow up implementation of sectoral plans and investments through Joint Sector Reviews. At the district level, the Joint Actions Development Forum brings together all stakeholders contributing to the delivery of the NST1 implemented through District Development Strategies."


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"The RBME at MoE is the nodal point for uptake and processing of NDC MRV related data and MoE/REMA will facilitate E&CC TWG\fGREEN RWANDA access to data on the RBME system for input and analysis. The National Institute of Statistics Rwanda (NISR) is central to national data processes and has the ultimate role of validating national statistics through data and information authentication and therefore approval for national statistics shared externally."


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"The SWGs hold semi-annual meetings and workshops for progress reporting through Joint Sector Review consultative sessions. The Ministry of Environment (MoE) chairs the Environment and Natural Resources SWG that has the responsibility to monitor and evaluate the implementation of the NDCs through regular stakeholder consultative engagement. Under the MoE are agencies that regularly organize Thematic Working Group (TWG) sessions in the context of the national planning process that supports implementation including monitoring, evaluation and progress reporting on sub-sector priorities."


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"The actions set out in the GGCRS provide the basis for the development of the NDC, as well as other key national guiding documents informing the country\u2019s low carbon development, culminating most recently in the National Environment and Climate Change Policy enacted in 2019 with the goal of achieving a climate resilient nation with a clean and heathy environment. Mitigation contribution Rwanda\u2019s mitigation contribution takes the form of a reduction in GHG emissions relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) emissions baseline over the period 2015-2030."


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"The adaptation component in Rwanda\u2019s updated NDC involves quantified targets for adaptation and resilience, criteria-based evaluation of priority interventions, and development of a monitoring and evaluation framework for adaptation actions to strengthen national capacity for resource mobilization that will be instrumental to supporting climate action phased over 2025 and 2030 time horizons. Rwanda\u2019s impacts and vulnerability to climate change Rwanda\u2019s economy depends primarily on agriculture, which is predominantly rain fed. This makes the country highly vulnerable to climate change."


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"The altitude varies between 900 m and 4,507 m from east to west where eastern plains lay between 1,000 m to 1,500 m and the central plateau region between 1,500 m and 2,000 m. The Congo-Nile Ridge and volcanic chains of Birunga have altitudes between 1,800 m and 4,507 m (the country\u2019s highest point, on the top of the Kalisimbi volcano) while the regions around Kivu Lake and Bugarama plains are located at altitudes of between 900 m and 1800 m (Sirven et al, 1974; MINIRENA, 2010)."


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"The amendment is the single most impactful step the world has taken to limit the growth of greenhouse gases and we are proud this decision was taken in Rwanda. Rwanda\u2019s firm commitment to climate action can be seen in this revised NDC, which increases ambition in all components. It is particularly focused on transparency, clarity and the monitoring of the goals we have set for ourselves. As a party to the Paris Agreement, Rwanda is committed to setting ambitious targets needed to enact change."


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"The analytical framework takes into account the need and therefore formats for clustering national and global reporting obligations. A framework of high level indicators, along with relevant data sources is presented in the Annex to this document. In combination with Table 7.1 above, these outline the high-level indicators for the proposed reporting arrangements highlighting the source documents (References) that provide information on metadata for the selected indicators."


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"The associated values are shown in the table below. The graph shows emissions more than doubling under the BAU projection from 5.3 MtCO2e in the base year to around 12.1 MtCO2e in 2030. With the domestically supported unconditional mitigation measures, 2030 emissions are forecast to instead rise to around 10.2 MtCO2e, representing a reduction against BAU of around 16%."


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"The average household uses around 1.8 tons of firewood each year to meet its cooking needs with a traditional stove (GoR, 2018a). Reliance on traditional energy represents a major challenge, and increasing the use of sustainable biomass and charcoal is a key priority for Rwanda\u2019s energy policy. Rwanda has one of the lowest electricity consumptions per capita in the region, and generation capacity is low."


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"The bulk of the remaining mitigation potential includes measures to reduce enteric fermentation emissions from livestock, including the introduction of new species to replace local herds and improved husbandry, and the use of windrow composting. Within energy use, increased use of renewables to meet increasing energy demand dominates the mitigation potential. Significant emissions reduction potential exists across each of the main sub-sectors."


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"The committee will ensure that Rwanda\u2019s NDC MRV system links mitigation, adaptation and finance as well as support for capacity building and technology transfer as critical aspects of NDC implementation. Primary data is generally collected at the local level and sectors/institutions have direct linkages with local levels (Districts) in sourcing relevant sector/priority action specific data and information including NDC MRV."


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"The consideration was also based on the focus of the World Bank support in the context of the NDC Partnership Plan endorsed by the GoR in November 2018. \u2022 The selection of adaptation interventions, the metrics including indicators, baselines, milestones and targets were conducted through workshops which were followed by extensive consultations with sector expert teams through various iterative discussions within sectors. In addition, a multi-criteria analysis methodology was used for prioritization of adaptation interventions."


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"The contribution comprises of two components: \u2022 Unconditional contribution: A reduction of 16 per cent relative to BAU in the year 2030; equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of 1.9 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (tCO2e) in that year. This is an unconditional target, based on domestically supported and implemented mitigation measures and policies. \u2022 Conditional contribution: An additional reduction of 22 per cent relative to BAU in the year 2030; equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of 2.7 million tCO2e in that year."


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"The contributions described in this submission build upon Rwanda\u2019s existing NDC, new policies and national plans, and reflect subsequent work in developing quantifiable mitigation and adaptation targets, and the prioritization of interventions to support these two areas. The updated NDC represents a more detailed and robust assessment of mitigation and adaptation measures in Rwanda informed by in-depth analysis, improved information and data, increased ambition, and an extensive stakeholder-driven consultation process."


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"The contributions described in this submission build upon Rwanda\u2019s existing first NDC, new policies and national plans, and reflect subsequent work supported by the World Bank NDC Support Facility in developing quantifiable mitigation and adaptation targets, and the prioritization of interventions to support these two areas. The updated NDC represents a more detailed and robust assessment of mitigation and adaptation measures in Rwanda informed by in-depth analysis, improved information and data, and an extensive stakeholder-driven consultation process."


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"The country has seen significant economic development in recent years, with GDP growing at an average of over 8% annually over the last decade and targeted to reach 11.5 % under the medium term development implementation framework EDPRS II2. It has a population of 10,515,973 people3 which is growing at 2.8% per year."


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"The country is still facing social and economic challenges addressed in the Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy (2013 - 2018).  Adaptation is the first priority of the country due to high vulnerability of key economic activities such as agriculture, energy and forestry. In addition, Rwanda has one of the lowest GHG emissions per capita in the world estimated at 0.99\f23 of 24  tCO2eq/person (2013)15."


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"The country is still water scarce with 670 m\u00b3 of water per capita per year and 25% of the population are still unable to access safe drinking water (MoE, 2017).\fGREEN RWANDA Land is also vulnerable to heavy rainfall associated with soil erosion and landslides resulting in the loss of fertility in North, Western, and Southern province, while Eastern Province is often vulnerable to drought (GoR, 2015a)."


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"The country submitted its Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC in 2005, National Adaptation Programmes of Action (NAPA) in 2006, and the Second National Communication in 2012. The Third National Communication is under preparation.  Rwanda s INDC is built upon its National Strategy for Climate Change and Low Carbon Development Strategy. The full implementation of this strategy rests upon five enabling pillars: Institutional Arrangements; Finance; Capacity Building and Knowledge Management; Technology, Innovation and Infrastructure; and Integrated Planning and Data Management."


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"The country\u2019s hydrologic network covers 8% of the national territory, equivalent to about 2,143 km2, on which 101 lakes cover around 1300 km2 (RNRA, 2015), 861 rivers occupy about 72.6 km2 while the water of 860 wetlands and valleys covers 770 km2 (Sirven et al, 1974; REMA, 2009; MINIRENA, 2012). The Congo basin drains around 33% of the national territory with around 10% of the country\u2019s water."


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"The country\u2019s ongoing economic growth is therefore highly threatened by climate change. Rwanda is highly vulnerable to climate change. The National Risk Atlas of Rwanda highlights that the country is highly prone to droughts, floods, landslides and windstorms (MIDIMAR, 2015). Other factors influencing the country\u2019s climate change vulnerability include socio- economic drivers such as building in flood prone areas, high population density in prone areas, increased value of assets in flood-prone areas, and poor management of soil erosion."


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"The country\u2019s ongoing economic growth is therefore highly threatened by climate change. The Government of Rwanda is committed to taking urgent action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. As a Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the country seeks to contribute to the ambitious goal of limiting temperature rise to 2oC with efforts to reach 1.5oC agreed under the Paris Agreement."


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"The current updated NDC seeks to accelerate Rwanda\u2019s socio-economic growth by holistically addressing sector specific vulnerabilities and unlocking and directing domestic and external investments to adaptation for effective climate action.\fUPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Priorities for adaptation and resilience Rwanda\u2019s adaptation and resilience priorities draw upon the Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy adopted in 2011 with a time horizon of 2050."


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"The dedicated unit will also be in charge of planning and implementing measures aiming Demand side management and energy efficiency initiatives would increase opportunities of more off farm jobs.\f16 of 24  at reducing grid losses. These are expected to drop from 23% c to unit will also investigate expanding and managing bulk procurement and distribution of for residential customers (based on current consumption and end-user affordability) with targeted subsidies for retrofits."


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"The focus in this process was: \u2022 To develop stakeholder consensus on priority interventions, baselines and targets on adaptation; \u2022 To develop the indicators of prioritised adaptation interventions; \u2022 To develop the Monitoring and Evaluation Framework for adaptation actions partly drawing from and strengthening the Environment and Natural Resources Results Based Monitoring and Evaluation (ENR RBME)."


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"The following are key areas that form part of the mandate of the Committee: \u2022 Review and establish objectives for the committee(s),Terms of Reference, membership and overall working modalities of the committee, principal of which is the endorsement and subsequent reporting of the NDC MRV at both national and global levels; \u2022 Provide advice and feedback on scope, schedule, cost and quality concerns, or guidance on program priorities, that arise during the planning, design and implementation of the projects related to NDCs; \u2022 Facilitate access to resources necessary to review and report on NDC MRV and approve projects at key milestones; \u2022 Review and examine studies, research activities in line with NDCs to facilitate quality assurance and alignment with strategic priorities \u2022 Develop and operationalize an effective NDC MRV communications plan. 7.1.2 NDC MRV data and information management The Results Based Monitoring and Evaluation (RBME) system is the principal repository and therefore appropriate platform for information and data monitoring and management for Environment and Natural Resources sector chaired by MoE."


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"The following points outline the key steps that were followed in this revision process for identifying and assessing adaptation measures: \u2022 The process involved an extensive review of relevant documents on climate adaptation that have developed over time starting with the Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy (2011) and the associated sector working papers."


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"The forecast indicates the growing contribution from fossil fuels to national emissions, arising from increasing demand for power generation, road transport and other modern energy uses. At the same time, despite potential for increased productivity, agricultural output is expected to be limited due to land availability, thereby limiting emissions growth from this sector."


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"The health sector use of drone technology for data collection and sue of smart phones to mine and process health statistics are key pointers on how domestication of capacities and technology transfer can fast-track development of reliable data management systems on\fGREEN RWANDA climate adaptation. For this to be useful, a number of deliberate capacity building initiatives will be undertaken at various levels."


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"The high population density (415 inhabitants per square kilometre in 2012), puts pressure on natural resources (land for housing, agriculture, wood for domestic use in construction, cooking, infrastructure, etc.). Without proper land use planning and implementation, and with a growing population, these pressures are likely to increase. In 2016, it was reported that 62.60% of the urban population live in informal settlements, while less than 20% of the urban population live in areas covered by master plans had storm water considerations in 2016 (MININFRA, 2017)."


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"The highlands, including the Congo-Nile Ridge and volcanic chains of Birunga, benefit from an annual rainfall of between 1,300 mm and 1,600 mm, with annual mean temperature ranging between 10\u00b0C and 18\u00b0C. Regions around Lake Kivu and Bugarama plains have an annual rainfall of between 1,200 mm and 1,500 mm, with an annual mean temperature between 18\u00b0C and 22\u00b0C (Ilunga et al., 2004; MINIRENA, 2010; Muhire and Ahmed, 2015; 2016)."


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"The important national water datasets will be identified to enable monitoring of the water balance, model abstraction and future demand. Furthermore, assessments will be undertaken of water resources under a range of climate change scenarios. In this regard, \f10 of 24  surface water quality monitoring will be carried out on selected sites of main rivers."


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"The initial costing of implementing the green growth and climate resilience strategy indicated that Rwanda will need 24.15 Billion USD in the sector of Water resource management, Agriculture and Energy up to 203016. Costing of the remaining sectors will give the clear indication of financial needs.  Rwanda successfully completed its Technology Needs Assessment (TNA). Elements of Rwanda s TNA process included institutional arrangements for TNA, extensive stakeholders  involvement and consultations, prioritization of sectors, barrier/market analysis and Technology Action Plans (TAP)."


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"The main adaptation benefits of the push-pull system are the increase of yields, soil fertility improvement through nitrogen fixation   and provision of a continuous supply of fodder to cattle from the harvest of Napier grass and desmodium. Thisimproves milk yields of cattle while reducing methane emissions as a result of improved fodder regimes."


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"The majority of solid waste collected in urban areas is centrally With respect to the urban waste management By 2030, Rwanda is committed to achieve the following : Development and implementation of landfill regulations in all urban areas , Extraction and Creation of off farm jobs during the implementatio n and operation phases thus enhancing climate resilience capacity of local\f22 of 24  deposited. With this continued trend the expected baseline scenario of annual GHG emissions from landfills will be high."


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"The mechanisms can be used to support coordinated implementation, monitoring and reporting, which can reduce transaction costs and overlapping work, and promote cross-sectoral synergies. \u2022 Consider data availability to measure the impact (to know that change has happened). Rwanda is increasingly making the case for global efforts to support effective climate action through the climate vulnerable countries forum. The stronger case will require continuous improvement of climate analytics that inform national and global reporting for adaptation in particular where harmonized reporting is insufficient."


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"The medium population growth case for national population growth has been used from the Fifth Integrated Household Living Survey (EICV5) (GoR, 2018b).\fUPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION \u2022 Use of regression analysis. Extensive use of regression analysis has been undertaken based on latest available data to better understand and inform relationships between certain forecast model parameters (e.g. analysis of vehicle growth by type/class according to GDP and population changes, from historic data)."


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"The methodology was based on an extensive review of relevant documents on climate adaptation that have developed over time starting with the Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy and the associated sector working papers. It is important to note that this strategy was the basis of the INDC and consequently the first NDC."


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"The mitigation contributions are summarised in the figure below against the BAU baseline for the target year 2030 (Figure ES-1). The sectoral scope of the contribution covers all emissions sources described in the IPCC 2006 Reporting Guidelines (IPCC, 2006), including emissions from the categories of energy; industrial processes and product use (IPPU); waste; and agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) but excluding sources from forestry and other land use."


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"The most rapid growth is forecast within industrial processes and energy use: the former expands its share of total emissions from 2% to around 4%, and the latter from 31% to 40% by 2030. The share of emissions from waste generation remains at around 12-13%, whilst agricultural sources decline from 55% to 43%."


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"The national level reporting will respond to data and information demands at strategic levels, sector strategic plans that inform joint sector reviews and other reporting requirements at the Prime Minister and Ministry of Finance and Economic planning (MINECOFIN) levels. Means of Implementation In order to fully implement the mitigation and adaptation measures contained in this NDC, Rwanda will require finance, capacity building and technology transfer."


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"The pie charts indicate the relative contribution made from projects within the key sectors of energy (covering energy use in electricity generation, industry, transport, commercial and residential, and agriculture), waste, IPPU and agriculture against the BAU baseline described above. The total mitigation potential is estimated at around 4.6 million tCO2e in 2030 compared to BAU emissions in the same year of 12.1 million tCO2e."


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"The policy\u2019s objectives include (MoE, 2019): \u2022 Greening economic transformation (resource efficiency, low carbon, climate resiliency, circular economy, green technology and procurement, green urbanization and settlements, and green mobility); \u2022 Strengthening meteorological and early warning services (climate and weather services production and mainstreaming into all sectors of Rwanda\u2019s socio-economic development, production and access of meteorological, climate and weather services for better planning in all sectors of economy; \u2022 Promoting climate change adaptation, mitigation and response (strengthen mitigation and adaptation in both planning and implementation); \u2022 Strengthening environment and climate change governance (mainstreaming of environment and climate change into all sector policies, national coordination for the management of critical ecosystems, inclusive decision-making and interventions for environment and climate change management, education & awareness of Rwandan society on environment, weather and climate change, and strengthen the institutional framework and coordination mechanisms); and \u2022 Promoting green foreign and domestic direct investment and other capital inflows (strengthening environment & climate financial mechanisms for more efficiency, effectiveness and impact and strengthening climate proofing capital inflow in national economic planning)."


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"The quantitative analysis undertaken in Step 2 was complimented by a broader, multi criteria-based, assessment in order to identify those options considered most suitable or feasible to be implemented under the NDC and to determine which can be implemented through domestic efforts (unconditional measures) and those requiring international support and finance (conditional measures). Assessing the potential Figure 5.4 summarises the estimated emissions reduction potential in 2030 for all mitigation measures assessed from the \u2018long list\u2019 of all mitigation measures."


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"The results of the EICV5 survey show that 38.2% of the population was poor in 2016/17, as compared to 39.1% in 2013/14 and 44.9% in 2010/11. Since 2010/11, extreme poverty fell from 24.1% to 16.0%. There are substantial geographical differences in the poverty rates, with lower rates in urban areas than elsewhere (GoR, 2018b)."


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"The same improvement is also being seen in other urban areas. Generation of electric power from landfill gas (LFG) collection at landfill site presents an opportunity to utilise waste methane and help meet growing energy demand. The main wastewater treatment and disposal systems in Kigali and secondary cities are dominated by septic tanks, soakaways and direct discharge in natural wetlands."


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"The sectoral scope of the contribution covers all emissions sources described in the IPCC 2006 Reporting Guidelines, including emissions from the categories of energy; industrial processes and product use (IPPU); waste; and agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) but excluding sources from forestry and other land use. These sources may be included within future contributions, subject to improved data availability and ongoing development in the accuracy of their quantification within the national GHG inventory."


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"The specific objectives for the consultation were: 1. To check if the information included in the adaptation analytical framework is relevant to the sector; 2. Share other internal reports that can be useful for the measurement, reporting and verification (MRV) for sector guidance and validation; 3. Advise on the projected 2025 and 2030 sectoral targets, since the existing ones are primarily drawn from NST1 that has projections up to 2024 only; 4."


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"The strategy contains 14 Programmes of Action (PoA), as summarised in Table 3.1 below. The actions set out in the GGCRS provide the basis for the development of the NDC and the country\u2019s commitment towards the implementation of the Paris agreement with mitigation and adaptations actions, as well as other key national guiding documents including Vision 2050, the National Strategy for Transformation (NST1), sectoral policies, Sector Strategic Plans, the Strategic Programme for Climate Resilience (SPCR), and Sustainable Energy for All (2015-2030)."


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"The strategy has 14 Programmes of Action (PoA) of which the following programmes that include adaptation to climate change in the following programmes: \u2022 PoA 1: Sustainable intensification of agriculture \u2022 PoA 2: Agriculture diversity in local and export markets \u2022 PoA 3:Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) and planning \u2022 PoA 4: Integrated Land Use and Management \u2022 PoA 9: Efficient resilient transport systems \u2022 PoA 11: Ecotourism, Conservation and Payment of Ecosystem Services \u2022 PoA 12: Sustainable Forest and Agroforestry \u2022 PoA 13: Disaster and Diseases prevention \u2022 PoA 14: Climate data and projections A recent review of the strategy indicated that it is still valid and relevant to Rwanda\u2019s Vision 2050 as well as strategic plans - such as the National Strategy for Transformation (NST) for the period between 2018 and 2024 (MoE, 2018)."


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"The technical working committee chaired by REMA will build on the past experiences to effectively coordinate national agencies responsible for data generation and management of NDC MRV reporting to UNFCCC. The table below summarises Rwanda\u2019s framework for tracking and reporting on progress of implementing the mitigation and adaptation goals outlined in this NDC. It summarises the institutions, fora, roles and responsibilities proposed to guide and support implementation of NDC MRV at the national level including policy and strategic decision levels."


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"The total estimated cost for Rwanda\u2019s identified NDC mitigation measures through 2030 is estimated at around 5.7 billion USD, and over 5.3 billion USD for adaptation priorities, representing a combined funding requirement of around 11 billion USD (Table ES-2). For both mitigation and adaptation combined, unconditional measures account for around 40% of the total estimated funding requirements, and conditional measures around 60%."


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"The total estimated cost for Rwanda\u2019s identified NDC mitigation measures through 2030 is estimated at around 5.7 billion USD, and over 5.3 billion USD for adaptation priorities, representing a combined funding requirement of around 11 billion USD. The table below summarises the estimated funding needs over the two periods. For both mitigation and adaptation combined, it can be seen that unconditional measures account for around 40% of the total estimated funding requirements, and conditional measures around 60%."


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"The total labour force participation rate was 87.4% and was lower in urban areas (79%) compared to rural areas (89%). This employment rate represents 85% of the working age population. The majority of Rwandan households are reliant on agriculture for food and income. The agricultural sector employs over 70% of the working population and is characterized by low productivity and low economic value (NISR, 2014)."


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"The travel sector (including tourism) has steadily increased its share of total services exports in recent years. In 2014, 76% of services receipts were generated in the travel and tourism sector, contributing USD 303 million in export revenue, up from USD 174 million in 2009 (GoR, 2018a). Freight and other transportation services are also important contributors. The number of visitors to Rwanda has increased over recent years, driven largely by tourist visits to the country\u2019s national parks."


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"The two most important drivers in the specific context of Rwanda\u2019s NDC sectors are considered to be: \u2022 Economic growth: Economic growth within key sectors will drive demand for energy, industrial output and services such as road transport and housing. Lower rates of GDP growth over the coming years will therefore tend to restrain demand and output, and GHG emissions levels."


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"The use of chemical fertilizers has increased from 29% to 37% between 2010/11 and 2013/14 and remains higher than expenditure on organic fertilizers. The country has committed to reducing the population working in the agriculture sector by increasing productivity per hectare and promoting the recycling of organic waste and use of manure to improve soil fertility. The largest livestock population is concentrated in the eastern and southern parts of the country with goats, cattle and chickens being the most commonly owned types (GoR, 2018a)."


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"The \u2018long list\u2019 of options identified thereby reflects a set of real projects and programmes under consideration, or having been studied, from within government departments and agencies4. The identified measures provided the basis for the GHG emissions modelling described in the following section."


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"There is significant scope to build capacity in cross sector M&E systems including upstream work that is vital to setting up functional M&E systems and frameworks. Investing in M&E systems is crucial to manage progress in implementing climate adaptation. M&E and lesson learning are critical to effective and efficient delivery of project results and sustainable impacts to secure investor confidence that is essential to meet resources mobilization ambitions and consequently the national goal of a climate resilient economy by 2050. Identifying capacity building (incl."


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"Therefore, the E&CC TWG forum through the technical working committee will serve as the national coordinator for all national institutions that implement sector specific mitigation, adaptation, finance as well as capacity building and technology transfer and support to operationalize the NDC MRV at the national level.\fGREEN RWANDA Figure 7.1 below summarises these institutional arrangements for tracking of NDC implementation including the national NDC MRV process."


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"These build upon the GGCRS and associated sector working papers, climate change vulnerability assessments reports, as well as the Strategic Programs for Climate Resilience (SPCRs). In total, 24 adaptation interventions are proposed, classified according to 8 key sectors (Figure ES-1). A total of 38 adaptation indicators have been developed to be aligned with baselines and adaptation targets."


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"These efforts will result in increased bed occupancy at available hotels and lodges within Kigali, and subsequent visitation to its surroundings including Volcanoes National Park (VNP), Nyungwe forest and Akagera National Park \f9 of 24  throughout the year Through this strategic action, Rwanda expects business and leisure tourists to increase from 545,000 people in 2012 to 1,262,000 people in 2030."


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"These include the potential involvement in international cooperative approaches under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. The consultations undertaken through the NDC revision process have created momentum for strengthening planning, implementation and monitoring and accountability frameworks. Thus, the updated NDC will continually guide successful mainstreaming of climate change into sector priorities building on existing country driven policy mechanisms and institutional arrangements, Technology transfer and capacity building, areas that are considered critical to fully implement Rwanda\u2019s mitigation and adaptation contributions, as outlined further in this submission."


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"These key strategies have demonstrated lack of climate adaptation data despite the impacts of climate change such as floods on infrastructure and soil erosion on agricultural productivity. Thus, implementation success will depend on efforts to avail data and information that facilitates results based tracking of climate change impacts to Rwanda\u2019s economy. Finance needed to support implementation will in significantly depend on climate change projects that draw from global financing and this also requires quality data to unequivocally rationalize project based climate impacts and benefits."


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"These provide long-term emissions projections for Rwanda through 2050 using the Long-range Energy Alternatives Planning System (LEAP) software system developed by the Stockholm Environment Institute (SEI, 2009) and supplemented by various excel-based calculations. As described above, the BAU modelling develops and improves in the TNC projections in several ways, including through the use of more recent data and sectoral analysis. Changes in production, energy use and GHG emissions through 2030 will be driven by a number of factors."


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"These reflect a number of assumptions determining changes in inter alia energy supply and demand, sector output, technology uptake, and policy choices. In so doing, existing government projections and plans were assessed, during cross-departmental consultations between relevant ministries, agencies and organisations. Note that as work is currently ongoing to better quantify national emissions and removals from forestry, these were excluded from the analysis. The modelling draws heavily upon, and updates, the emissions projections work undertaken as part of the TNC work (GoR, 2018a)."


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"These should also include a description of steps made to implement mitigation actions in support of the UNFCCC goal, among other aspects (as required under Decision 17/ CP.8 and other decisions on implementation details); and \u2022 Biennial Update Reports (BURs) to be submitted every two years. These should include an up-dated GHG inventory report from that of the NC, a measurement of mitigation actions and their impacts, reporting on the domestic MRV system and a description of needs and international support received."


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"These sources may be included within future contributions, subject to improved data availability and ongoing development in the accuracy of their quantification within the national GHG inventory. The coverage of the contributions includes the three main greenhouse gases carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and also hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). NDC emissions reduction scenarios BAU Energy IPPU Waste Agriculture All NDC measures Domestic measures\fGREEN RWANDA Adaptation contribution Rwanda\u2019s adaptation contribution prioritises adaptation interventions, establish baselines, and develops sector-level performance indicators and targets."


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"These strategic and policy relevant areas have outlined priorities for the NDC adaptation analytical framework and will continually inform planning, resources mobilization and implementation of NDC in the medium (2025) to long term in 2030 as well as influence the achievement of climate action relevant to SDGs. 6.3.1 Methodological approach Figure 6.1 summarises the key steps for the adaptation component that were followed in the updated Rwanda\u2019s NDC."


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"They also include other high-level indicators specific to each sector relating to emissions and mitigation activity. \u2022 Supporting indicators: The headline indicators are underpinned by a set of more detailed indicators which track progress in implementing the mitigation measures required to achieve sustainable emission reductions. A series of supporting indicators help quantify the progress in implementing the specific actions within each sector. \u2022 Other factors: Various factors will act as drivers of emissions over the coming years, many of which are outside Rwanda\u2019s control."


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"Third National Communication: Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Republic of Rwanda, Kigali. GoR, 2018b. The Fifth Integrated Household Living Survey (EICV5): Main Indicators Report 2016/17. Republic of Rwanda, Kigali. GoR, 2018c. Rwanda NDC Partnership Plan. Kigali: MoE. Ilunga, L., Mbaragijimana, C. and Muhire, I., 2004. Pluviometric seasons and rainfall origin in Rwanda. Geo-Eco-Trop, 28(1-2):61-68. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 2006. 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. See:   IPCC, 2007."


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"This affirms the country s commitment to engage in the forthcoming international process of developing a climate change agreement.  1 second National Communication report 2012 2 Economic Development and Poverty Reduction Strategy II (2013-2018) 3 Fourth Population and Housing Census 2012 4 4th Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey (2013/14)\f2 of 24  Rwanda has been committed to addressing the challenge of climate change since 1998 when it ratified the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and later the Kyoto Protocol in 2003."


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"This deficit shows how the forest sector is and likely to remain under pressure.In order to deal with this main issue, Rwanda intends to improve the management of its forest resources by increasing efforts in using quality germplasm, planting Reduced GHG emissions through sequestration  12 Metric Tons\f8 of 24  trees at the right time (rain season) and improving post-planting care,."


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"This has been undertaken through a process that integrates an analysis of Rwanda\u2019s existing sectoral and climate policy framework, the generation of qualitative information through consultation with government officials, experts and stakeholders, quantitative modelling of mitigation options and scenarios, and multi-criteria assessment to prioritise measures and determine conditional and unconditional contributions. As described above, the mitigation assessment builds on the work undertaken in support of Rwanda\u2019s INDC submission in 2015 and other more recent studies including e.g."


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"This include Rwanda\u2019s NDC (GoR, 2015a); assessment of NAMAs in Rwanda (GoR, 2015b); an \u201cadjusted\u201d list of NDC options, as contained in the Rwanda NDC Implementation Plan (GoR, 2017b); and Rwanda\u2019s TNC (GoR, 2018a). \u2022 Step 2: Assessing the potential. The identified long-list of mitigation options were then assessed in terms of their mitigation potential through 2030 compared to the BAU baseline projection and their economic costs and benefits. \u2022 Step 3: Evaluating the options."


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"This information is at present compiled by Rwanda and is submitted to the UNFCCC through two channels: \u2022 National Communications (NCs) to be submitted every four years, covering measurements of GHG emissions by sources and removals by sinks compiled in accordance with IPCC reporting guidelines (i.e. a National GHG inventory)."


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"This information will be increasingly critical to guide resources mobilization that FONERWA must influence in filling finance gaps for the successful implementation of Rwanda\u2019s NDC. Gender mainstreaming is a priority at all levels of policy and implementation and the NDC MRV will ensure gender disaggregated data is captured and reported as well as engage private sector in the support for national NDC MRV processes. The NDC MRV information will be packaged using appropriate reporting protocols and formats for national level as well as international reporting."


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"This is especially the case for climate adaptation where \u201cclimate rationale\u201d in the case of GCF seriously hampers the ability to direct resources to address the impacts of climate change. It is crucial that climate financing decisions acknowledge the seamlessness of climate adaptation and development even as climate rationale is reasonably pursued in validating finance flows to address the impacts of climate change. \u2022 Local/sector context is crucial to climate vulnerability/resilience assessment."


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"This is expected to lead to increasing rainfall intensity, leading to a higher frequency of floods and storms resulting in landslides, crop losses, health risks, and damage to infrastructure, as well as an increase in temperatures resulting in proliferation of diseases, crop decline and reduced land availability that impacts on food security and export earnings."


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"This reporting framework is conducted biennially through Joint Sector Reviews (JSRs). In addition, reporting on NDC adaptation indicators will be carried out in the context of a High Level Policy Dialogue that tracks progress on the implementation of the GGCRS that circumscribes the broader context of NDC implementation."


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"This represents an additional targeted contribution, based on the provision of international support and funding. The combined unconditional and conditional contribution is therefore a 38 per cent reduction in GHG emissions compared to BAU in 2030; this is equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of up to 4.6 million tCO2e in 2030."


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"This section describes Rwanda\u2019s nationally determined contribution to mitigation. It describes the emissions sources covered by the contribution according to the latest national GHG inventory year, the development of BAU emissions projections by sector to 2030, the expected contribution from mitigation measures according to each sector, and the associated funding requirements expected for both the unconditional and conditional components."


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"This strategic action will result in better estimations of GHG emissions from land use, land use change and forestry thus improving planning and implementatio n of specific mitigation actions for the same sector. Cross cutting Programme of action Actions Description and goals/targets Mitigation benefits Management 7.1 Conduct risk assessments and vulnerability mapping Specific risk and vulnerability assessments are key for better planning and implementation of relevant adaptation actions."


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"This takes the form of a framework of indicators for each of the key emitting sectors, which can be used for international reporting as well as for domestic tracking of NDC implementation. The framework enables monitoring of the counterfactual BAU baseline emissions as well as actual emissions arising from implementation of NDC mitigation measures. It will also facilitate tracking of climate finance flows for NDC implementation and other forms of international support."


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"This technique ensures a more efficient use of inorganic fertilizers, and adds valuable organic matter to soils, which also maximizes terrestrial carbon in farm soils."


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"This updated NDC updates and strengthens the first NDC for both the mitigation and adaptation contributions, informed by improved data collection, in-depth technical analysis and extensive stakeholder engagement. In the case of mitigation, detailed sector- and project-based modelling has been undertaken to now estimate the country\u2019s mitigation potential and develop quantified conditional and unconditional contributions through 2030. This section provides a brief description of the revision process of Rwanda\u2019s nationally determined contribution for both the mitigation and adaptation components."


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"This was undertaken partly to assess the suitability of the identified measures within the NDC, and also to help inform the decision of which could be considered unconditional (domestically supported) measures, and which could be instead considered as conditional on international support. A detailed economic assessment was made for the full list of options. Although economic efficiency is a key criterion, climate policy must also respond to other key issues such as e.g."


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"This will  15 The Republic of Rwanda Statistical Yearbook 2014  16 Report on Costing of Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy\f24 of 24  ensure the effective updating and implementation of both mitigation and adaptation plans."


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"This will allow Rwanda to effectively track progress of the mitigation activities identified in this NDC consistent with UNFCCC reporting standards, and carry out ongoing evaluation of whether the country is on course to meet its targets through 2030. This takes the form of a framework of indicators for each of the key emitting sectors, which can be used for international reporting as well as for domestic tracking of NDC implementation."


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"This will be done with support of broad District based stakeholders through the Joint Action Development Forum (JADF), an opportunity for engagement of NGOs private sector and development partners to provide inputs into the NDC MRV process. MINALOC provides coordination oversight in facilitating local government data management flows to central level institutions."


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"This will increase opportunities for hydropower development thus reducing emissions from fossil fuels used for electrical power generation.  5.2 Develop water resource models, improved meteorological services, water quality testing, and improved hydro- related information management; To allow precise planning of water resources and improved allocation, Rwanda will develop water balances at district and catchment levels, supported by hydrological models, improved rainfall monitoring, and a better understanding of agro-meteorology and water quality testing."


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"Though Rwanda is among the countries with lowest emission per capita worldwide (GoR, 2011), it is highly vulnerable to climate change. Therefore, adaptation to climate change is a key concern and a priority for the country."


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"Through the PA, developed and developing countries made individual commitments to transition toward a climate-resilient and low-emissions future. Parties are required to undertake and communicate efforts to contribute to the achievement of these goals in the form of Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) communicated to the UNFCCC (Article 3). NDC\u2019s are therefore the centrepiece of the Paris Agreement agreed through an international partnership that forms the foundation for the pathway towards a low-carbon and climate resilient development."


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"Thus, all climate change relevant data including NDC MRV managed and reported by the E&CC TWG will be processed and accessed through the RBME. Assessing and defining most suitable data sources is important for any MRV system to be effective. The technical working committee for NDC MRV will play a critical role of the national level data and information generation and reporting and will be significantly involved in data gathering, transparency, and verification."


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"Thus, the JADF that involves multiple stakeholders including NGOs, the private sector and Development Partners intervening in development programs including climate change serve a critical role in: \u2022 Elaboration and implementation of imihigo (monitoring and evaluation based performance contracts) \u2022 Monitoring the implementation of NDC MRV relevant actions within District Development Strategies (DDSs) \u2022 Promoting cooperation between the public sector, private sector and civil society to deliver on NST1 (including NDC MRV) at district level GREEN RWANDA MINECOFIN In addition to the critical responsibility of reporting on finance, MINECOFIN is responsible for: \u2022 Overall coordination of M&E activities (including NDC MRV) from planning, data collection, and reporting at all levels \u2022 Preparing the NST consolidated annual report using the reports from different sectors including the ENR sector and ensure that NDC MRV is part of the annual reporting \u2022 Monitoring the macro KPIs through the Government Command Centre (GCC), the highest monitoring platform at the national level and ensure integration of Rwanda\u2019s NDC MRV MINALOC Coordinates the implementation of Districts Development Strategies (DDSs) and upstream reporting on NDC MRV performance"


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"To ensure increasing levels of ambition to combat climate change, the PA requires that, at a minimum of every five years, Parties submit revised NDCs that represent a progression beyond the Party\u2019s then current NDC (Article 4). The PA also establishes a new enhanced transparency framework (ETF) for action and support, providing the basis for Parties to monitor and report on their progress in implementing their NDCs (Article 13)."


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"To reduce atmospheric pollution levels from the transport sector, the government has also committed to reducing the number of imported used cars by increasing taxes and plans the introduction of electric vehicles from 2020 onwards as part of its \u2018e-mobility\u2019 program. Other key transport strategies include bus promotion as part of public transport development, replacement of minibuses by modern buses and the promotion of mass rapid transportation. Based on data in NISR, 2018."


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"To this end, catchments committees and water users associations (WUAs) will be established and trained at district level to cover all the 30 districts by 2030. Also, detailed catchment management plans have will be developed and implemented for all the nine identified main catchments areas by 2030. IWRM is expected to result in improved water resources in both quality and quantity."


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"Together we will build a green Rwanda and protect the planet. Dr. Jeanne d\u2019Arc Mujawamariya Minister of Environment Republic of Rwanda iii UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Acronyms and Abbreviations AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use BAU \u2018Business as usual\u2019 BUR Biennial Update Report CBA Cost-benefit analysis CCL Ciment du Rwanda (CIMERWA) Limited CFL Compact fluorescent lamp Carbon dioxide Carbon dioxide equivalent CoK City of Kigali DDS District Development Strategy DRR Disaster risk reduction EDCL Energy Development Corporation Limited Fifth Integrated Household Living Survey ESSP Energy Sector Strategic Plan EV Electric vehicle FONERWA Rwanda Green Fund GDP Gross Domestic Product GGCRS Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy GHG Greenhouse gas GWP Global warming potential HFC Hydrofluorocarbon INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPU Industrial Processes and Product Use IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management LEAP Long-Range Energy Alternative Planning LED Light emitting diode LFG Landfill gas LPG Liquefied petroleum gas iv GREEN RWANDA M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MINEMA Ministry of Emergency Management MINAGRI Ministry of Agriculture and Animal Resources MINALOC Ministry of Local Government MINECOFIN Ministry"


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"Total wetlands cover an area of 276,477 ha of which 74% is classified as conditionally exploited, 6% unconditionally exploited, and 20% fully protected. Wetlands are dominated by papyruses, especially in the Kamiranzovu, Gishoma and Rugezi marshlands and around lakes such as Muhazi, Burera and Ruhondo. Plantations forest are distributed throughout the country and dominated by exotic species such as Eucalyptus, Pinus, and Grevillea. Socio-economic characteristics Rwanda has experienced a rapid socio-economic and demographic transformation since 2000."


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"Transport Programme of action Actions Description and targets Adaptation benefits Baseline scenario Mitigation scenario  resilient transport system 4.1 Bus Promotion of public transport, improvement of transport infrastructure, setting vehicles\u2019 emission standards and regulations and integrated national transportation planning The Rwandan transport sector is experiencing  a rapid growth of vihicles population and an increase in light duty vehicles equipped with way catalytic converters."


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"UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION 41\fWaste water treatment and re-use Waste-water treatment plants (WWTP) Investment in wastewater treatment and reuse technology, reducing methane emissions from wastewater and providing a nutrient-rich digestate that can be used as a fertilizer. Reduction of CH4, and CO2 emissions. MININFRA, MINALOC (RURA, REMA, CoK, municipal and local government, WASAC) Capital costs million USD per WWTP. Annual costs est. 1.5 million USD. Reduced water contamination. Increased agriculture production and groundwater recharge. Increased food production and nutrition security."


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"UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION According to the Fifth Integrated Household Living Survey (EICV5), Rwanda\u2019s population grew from 8.13 million in 2002 to 11.23 million in 2015 (GoR, 2018b). Around 77% of the population lives in rural areas, and 23% in urban areas (of which the capital Kigali is by far the largest). The EICV5 foresees significant population growth under its central \u2018medium growth\u2019 scenario reaching 14.16 million by 2025 and 15.71 million by 2030 (Table 2.1)."


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"UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION As with many other countries, Rwanda is increasingly experiencing the impacts of climate change. Rainfall has become increasingly intense and the variability is predicted to increase by 5% to 10% (GoR, 2017b). Temperature increases have also been experienced, with records from 1971 to 2016 showing rises in mean temperature of between 1.4\u00b0C and 2. 56\u00b0C in the south-west and eastern regions of Rwanda (GoR, 2018a)."


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"UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION MININFRA, 2017. Water and Sanitation Sector Strategic Plan 2018 - 2024. Kigali: MININFRA. MoE, 2017. Strategic Plan for the Environment and Natural Resources Sector 2018 \u2013 2024, Rwanda. Kigali: MoE. MoE, 2018. Evaluation of the Green Growth and Climate Resilience Strategy (GGCRS) Implementation, Evaluation report. Kigali: MoE. MoE, 2019. National Environmental and climate change policy. Kigali: MoE. Muhire, I. and Ahmed, F., 2015. Spatio-temporal trend analysis of precipitation data over Rwanda. South African Geographical Journal, 97(1): 50-68."


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"UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Means of Implementation In order to fully implement the mitigation and adaptation measures contained in this NDC, Rwanda will require finance, capacity building, and technology transfer and country driven policy process and institutional arrangements. This section provides an overview of these means of implementation. Finance needs As part of the NDC revision process, extensive analysis and consultations with sector experts were undertaken to produce conditional and unconditional cost estimates for the mitigation and adaptation measures through 2025 and 2030."


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"UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION NDC progress indicators: Aggregated all sectors GHG emissions BAU GHG emissions Energy IPPU Agriculture Waste TOTAL Current GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Energy IPPU Agriculture Waste TOTAL Mitigation from NDC measures Unconditional Conditional TOTAL Mitigation from NDC measures (% change from BAU) Unconditional Conditional TOTAL Other GDP (million USD) Population (millions) Finance and mechanisms Domestic climate finance (million USD) Direct Indirect International climate finance (million USD) Grants Other Internationally Transferred Mitigation Outcomes (MtCO2e) Technology development and transfer (describe activities undertaken) Capacity building and strengthening (describe activities undertaken) Other voluntary co-operation (describe activities undertaken) GREEN RWANDA NDC progress indicators: Energy (electricity generation) Headline indicators BAU GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Current GHG emissions (MtCO2e) BAU electricity demand (GWh) Current electricity demand (GWh) BAU emissions intensity of grid supply (tCO2e/MWh) Current emissions intensity of grid supply (tCO2e/MWh) Share of renewables in total electricity supply (%) Supporting indicators Electricity supply Generation (GWh and % of total) Hydropower Solar/wind Natural gas Peat HFO Imports TOTAL Mitigation measures Hydropower Capacity (MW) Off-grid electrification # Tier 1 households # Tier 2 households Solar minigrids (MWp) Solar"


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"UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Outline of this document This document describes Rwanda\u2019s update of its first Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for mitigation and adaptation for the period 2020 to 2030. It is structured as follows: \u2022 Section 2 describes Rwanda\u2019s national circumstances. \u2022 Section 3 presents Rwanda\u2019s vision for climate change and a brief summary of its policy response through national, regional and global efforts to tackling climate change. \u2022 Section 4 summarises the NDC revision process covering both mitigation and adaptation contributions."


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"UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Overview of approach to analysis of mitigation potential 5.3.2 Business as usual (BAU) projections Rwanda\u2019s mitigation contribution is based on a reduction relative to business as usual (BAU) emissions 2015-2030. The BAU projection represents the scenario according to which mitigation policies and actions are not implemented. It therefore provides the reference case (or baseline) against which the emissions reduction potential from mitigation actions have been quantified."


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"UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Rwanda\u2019s Vision for Climate Change The Government of Rwanda (GoR) is committed to taking urgent action to mitigate and adapt to the effects of climate change. As a Party to the UNFCCC, the country seeks to contribute to the ambitious goal of limiting temperature rise to 2oC with efforts to reach 1.5oC agreed under the Paris Agreement (UNFCCC, 2015)."


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"UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION The ETF requires the NDC MRV system to transparently report progress made towards the targets defined in Rwanda\u2019s NDC and to track the progress made in the implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions - as well as the use and results of means of implementation and support including capacity building, technology transfer, and finance."


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"UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION rising from 5.3 million tCO2e in the base year to 12.1 million tCO2e in 2030. The graph shows that this represents an increased rate of growth compared to that seen during the period 2006-2015, closely reflecting the assumptions around economic and population growth and official planning, instead of projections based on past trends7. The current projection compares with the TNC projection of around 10.2 million tCO2e in 2030, representing a doubling from the base year8."


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"UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION \u2022 Conditional contribution: An additional reduction of 22 per cent relative to BAU in the year 2030; equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of 2.7 million tCO2e in that year. This represents an additional targeted contribution, based on the provision of international support and funding. The combined unconditional and conditional contribution is therefore a 38 per cent reduction in GHG emissions compared to BAU in 2030, equivalent to an estimated mitigation level of up to 4.6 million tCO2e in 2030."


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"Under the mitigation scenario, Rwanda is committed to achieve energy efficiency by starting with agro- processing industries as large consumers of wood fuels. By Rwanda intends to avoid total GHG emission reductions of from Tea and Coffee industries. This action will These initiatives will lower consumption of wood fuels thus sustaining adaptation roles of forests."


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"Unfortunately, Rwanda\u2019s protected areas have lost around 50% of their original surface area over the last 40 years. There are also small reserve forests including Busaga, Buhanga, Sanza, Iwawa, Rubirizi, Makera, and a number of public and private plantation forests. Rwanda\u2019s wetlands comprise marshlands, lakes, rivers and streams and represent around 15% of the national territory (of which 6.3% are marshlands and 8.6% are lakes and streams)."


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"Urban and rural population forecasts to 2030 Population (millions) Urban Rural Total Source: Adapted from GoR, 2018b and GoR, 2015b Rwanda\u2019s policies for addressing poverty, and the goals for poverty reduction, are set out in the First National Strategy for Transformation (NST1), the Vision 2020 and Vision 2050 strategies (GoR, 2018b). These commit the government to reduce poverty from 44.9% in 2011 to 20% by 2020."


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"Waste Programme of action Actions Description and targets Adaptation benefits Baseline scenario Mitigation scenario n of Low carbon urban systems 6.1 Utilization of urban waste as a high value resource stream Under the BAU, the waste sector will undergo substantial growth in the future based on expected population growth and urbanisation."


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"Wastewater Treatment and Discharge Total emissions Energy Total emissions IPPU Total emissions AFOLU Total emissions Waste TOTAL emissions (excluding forestry) Source: Rwanda National GHG Inventory data (as of September 2019); forestry excluded.\fGREEN RWANDA Mitigation actions 5.3.1 Methodological approach Rwanda\u2019s NDC mitigation targets are based on an in-depth assessment of the country\u2019s mitigation potential against a BAU baseline through 2030."


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"Water Programme of action Actions Description and goals/targets Mitigation benefits Water Resource Management and Planning national integrated water resource management framework that incorporates district and community- based catchment management;  Rwanda will integrate management of water resources at the district and community levels, define catchment wide responsibilities, cluster catchment partner-districts according to sub- catchment regions, and improve understanding of water users within districts and catchments. The national framework for IWRM will be cascaded down to district and catchment levels."


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"We all have a role to play in the global movement to reduce emissions. This challenge comes at a time of multiple, competing priorities requiring government funding and coordinated response. However, the path towards low-carbon, climate resilient development has been prioritized not only by the Government of Rwanda, but also the people of Rwanda as the most desirable way forward to realize a sustainable future for generations to come."


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"Whereas the TNC projections were based on projecting future emissions by extending previous trends from the historic emissions data, the current BAU forecasting links future changes more closely to relevant factors driving output and emissions changes, including economic growth, population growth, official agricultural production plans and power expansion planning2. The national GDP growth forecast aligned with Rwanda\u2019s Vision 2050 strategy for economic growth (GoR, 2017a) has been used as the baseline assumption for economic growth."


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"With Given the fact that poor performing cook stoves are still used in most cases leading to inefficiencies in fuel consumption and health effects, Rwanda intends to increase the diffusion of improved cook stoves and reach of all households in needs 2030. Additional supporting initiatives are mainly the Adaptation benefits under these initiatives rely in the fact that they will result in reduced deforestation thus ensuring sustainable basic energy source. Further to this, indoor airpollution will be reduced and quality of life improved."


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"With both domestic and conditional mitigation measures, emissions are forecast to instead total around 7.5 MtCO2e, equal to a reduction of 38% by 2030 against the same baseline. Mitigation contributions against BAU baseline BAU BAU (base case) Domestic Measures All NDC measures\fUPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Mitigation contributions against BAU baseline The mitigation contributions are summarised in Figure 5.6 below for the year 2030, which also shows the contribution of each sector to the total estimated mitigation potential."


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"With the ongoing development of the country, Rwanda will therefore need to explore other innovative approaches in agriculture such as utilizing vertical farming technologies to increase crop yields within a smaller land area. A detailed assessment of identified GHG mitigation options for Rwanda estimates a total emissions reduction potential of around 4.6 million tCO2e in 2030 against the BAU emissions in the same year of 12.1 million tCO2e."


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"Year-over- year, the formal trade in goods deficit increased by 1.45% on the deficit of January 2017 (NISR, 2018). National exports are dominated on a volume basis by re-export products (including petroleum products, machines, vehicles and engines), tea and coffee. On a value basis, national exports are dominated by minerals including gold, cassiterite, coltan, and wolfram.\fUPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Rwanda energy primary use is dominated by biomass, which accounts for around 86% of the total (GoR, 2018a)."


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"an effective Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system, enabling the country to monitor the effectiveness of its mitigation and adaptation measures and facilitating its access to climate finance."


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"and Added Value Improve Forest Management for degraded forest resources Table 6.2 Estimated costs of adaptation interventions UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Climate- sensitive Integrated Land Use Planning and Spatial Planning Integrated approach to planning and monitoring for sustainable land management Develop a harmonized and integrated spatial data management system for sustainable land use management Inclusive land administration that regulate and provide guidance for land tenure security Land Use and Spatial Planning High density buildings and informal settlement upgrading Storm water and Drainage Management Storm water management Vector-based disease prevention Strengthen preventive measures and create capacity to adapt to disease outbreaks Sustainable, climate- resilient roads and bridges Improved transport infrastructure and services Climate compatible mining Climate compatible mining DRR program (Disaster preparedness and emergency response) Establish an integrated early warning system, and disaster response plans Disaster risk monitoring Institutional capacity development Institutional capacity building and development for cross-sector NDC implementation Finance (Resources mobilization) Access to finance TOTAL (USD) OVERALL COST (USD) GREEN RWANDA Monitoring, Reporting And Verification Framework Institutional arrangements for tracking NDC implementation The successful implementation of Rwanda\u2019s NDC requires an effective Measurement, Reporting and Verification (MRV) system, enabling the country to monitor the effectiveness of its mitigation and adaptation"


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"and research institutions Adaptation Line Ministry Activity/Indicator Lead Agency Key stakeholders MoE Percentage change in national climate change vulnerability index REMA All productive and social sectors/institutions of the Rwanda economy MINALOC/ MoE/MINEMA Number and Percentage of districts at high risk of suffering major climate change effect REMA MINEMA Average level of satisfaction of major Weather and Climate information institutional users with METEO RWANDA Weather and Climate information Rwanda Meteo MoE, REMA, MINALOC, MININFRA, NISR, UR, MINEDUC, RDF, RNP, civil society Rwanda Water Resources Board (RWRB) Water storage per capita RWRB MoE, MINAGRI, UR/ CAVM, MININFRA, Meteo Rwanda, REMA, RAB, civil society, WASAC, PSF, RLUMA, City of Kigali and MINALOC Number (%) of (a) Households, and (b) Institutions with a Rain Water Harvesting (RWH) system installed."


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"climate resilient livestock Number of climate resilient crop varieties developed MINAGRI (RAB, NAEB, REMA, Private sector, Civil society) B 24 million USD Reduced GHG emissions from improved land use and livestock species Percentage of farmers adopting resilient crop/ varieties MINAGRI (RAB, NAEB, Private sector, Civil society) B Percentage of crossbreed livestock at national herd species B GREEN RWANDA Develop climate resilient postharvest and value addition facilities and technologies Capacity of storage constructed in MT MINAGRI (RAB, NAEB, Private sector, Civil society) B 200 million USD Reduced GHG emissions from improved postharvest management Strengthen crop management practices (disease prevention, diagnostic, surveillance and control) Number of farmers using surveillance tool (FAW Database, BXW apps etc.)"


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"communities, with total capacity of up to 9.4 MWp and will establish rural productive zones using electricty for increasing the income generating potential of rural communities."


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"creation of off farm jobs thus increasing adaptive capacities of local communities. Availed electricity will create more opportunities for diversified commercial activities in the construction industry and services for example.  e Small Scale energy installation 2.1 Installation of solar PV mini-grids in rural communities.  Rural communities depend mainly on kerosene for their Rwanda will establish up to 100 solar PV mini-grids in rural Rural electrification will create additional\f15 of 24  lighting needs, wood fuel and agriculture residues for their cooking needs."


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"emissions (MtCO2e) Current GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Crop production (total t crop biomass) Livestock production (# population) Supporting indicators Crops Nutrient use efficiency Compost application (ha) Compost application (t/ha) Deep fertiliser and biomass use in rice production (kg/t rice) Soil and water conservation Terraced land (ha) Crop rotation (ha) Banana and coffee multi-crop production (ha) Conservation tillage (ha) Livestock Livestock husbandry and species New fodder species production (ha) New fodder use (# cows) New species (# cows replaced with cross-breeds) UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Manure management # new kraals Manure yields (t/cow) International finance and support International contribution to finance mitigation measures (indicate activities and amounts) Technology transfer and capacity building activities (indicate activities) Other factors Government fertilizer production and distribution policy (describe progress and outcomes) Agricultural and horticultural production, domestic food demand, and export and market developments Climactic and other key factors influencing yields and agricultural practices NDC progress indicators: Waste Headline indicators BAU GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Current GHG emissions (MtCO2e) BAU total waste disposal (t) Current total waste disposal (t) BAU organic waste disposal (t) Current organic waste disposal (t) Supporting indicators Solid waste Landfil gas (LFG) utilisation # Sites with LFG capture LFG generation (MW) Waste-to-energy (WtE) #"


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"environmentally sustainable use of biomass fuels Biomass is almost wholly relied on for cooking and related uses by both urban and rural households. The single most important appliance in the biomass sector is the cookstove. This determines the efficiency with which biomass is used. Wood fuel consumption including charcoal was estmated at 4.2 Mt/year  in 2010."


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"funded within committed national policy plans and actions); and \u2022 Conditional contribution: Additional mitigation measures which could be implemented, but only conditional upon the availability of international support (including funding and other types of support from donors, climate finance and potentially carbon markets). The multi-criteria evaluation process provided a basis to clarify the identified options according to these two groupings. In so doing, the following broad considerations were also used to help guide the choices:\fGREEN RWANDA 1."


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"ii GREEN RWANDA This document sets a path for ambitious climate action and allows organizations, individuals, and communities to see where their efforts fit within the national and global strategies needed to address the biggest challenge of our time. Climate change is causing enormous damage to the natural environment and has resulted in the loss of life and livelihoods. Recognizing the consequences of inaction, Rwanda remains steadfastly committed to the Paris Agreement and has dedicated the resources required to achieve substantial emissions reductions."


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"income generating activities for communities and  lowers some of the daily energy- related burdens of community members, It will also contribute to the success of forestry management programmes where wood fuels are replaced by electricity efficiency and  demand side management Increase energy efficiency through demand-side measures and grid-loss reduction Currently demand side management is not well undertaken in Rwanda and grid losses  are estimated at 23% Through the energy utility, Rwanda will establish dedicated energy efficiency and demand side management unit to oversee the design and implementation of relevant efficiency programs to clip electrical peak demand."


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"investment and other capital inflows (strengthening environment & climate financial mechanisms for more efficiency, effectiveness and impact and strengthening climate proofing capital inflow in national economic planning)."


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"land use and surface area for carbon sink Model linking land use/ administration in place B Human Settlements High density buildings and informal settlement upgrading Percentage of (1) urban population living in informal settlements, (2) rural population living in clustered settlements MININFRA/ MoE (RHA, RLUMA, RWRB, WASAC, Districts, Private Sector, RDB, Civil society) A 400 million USD Reduced GHG emissions from efficient land use, electricity and transport plus increased surface area for carbon sink B Average share of the built-up area of cities that is open and green space for public use for all (SDG) B Access to water and sanitation services B Storm water management Percentage of urban population in areas covered by master plans with storm water considerations B 400 million USD Sustenance of new and existing hydropower plants UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Health Strengthen preventive measures and create capacity to adapt to disease outbreaks Malaria proportional mortality rate per 1,000 population MINISANTE, (RBC, Meteo Rwanda, Civil society) A 185 million USD Challenging to evaluate the several factors for health related GHG emissions Improved transport infrastructure and services Environmental and engineering guidelines developed (for climate resilient road infrastructure) MININFRA / MINEMA ( RTDA, RHA, Meteo Rwanda; Districts) B"


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"local pollution reduction, energy security, energy access, poverty, and seeking reduced electricity tariffs. A broader evaluation framework is therefore needed. Suitable mitigation options seek to maximise the following key criteria: \u2022 Environmental effectiveness: mitigation actions should achieve real emissions reductions, at the national and global level, whilst minimising indirect environmental impacts and ensuring resilience to climate change impacts."


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"new vehicles entering the fleet and development of charging infrastructure) and the rate of electricity grid decarbonisation achieved are key to the net level of abatement achieved. Within waste, the most significant potential is identified within energy utilisation measures such as landfill gas recovery and direct waste-to-energy (WtE) plants."


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"occupancy rates; average distances (once studies are available) Ongoing developments and trends within buildings practices and household and SME energy use (describe) Availability and cost of new and low carbon energy technologies and practices GREEN RWANDA NDC progress indicators: IPPU Headline indicators BAU GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Current GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Supporting indicators Cement production Clinker substitution Pozzolana use (t) Clinker/cement ratio (%) Substitution of F-gases Substitution of F-gases with low GWP refrigerants Imported HFC (kg) F-gas use (list the gases and amounts in kg) F-gas substitution (%) International finance and support International contribution to finance mitigation measures (indicate activities and amounts) Technology transfer and capacity building activities (indicate activities) Other factors Progress with enabling continued and/or greater use of clinker substitute materials in cement production Progress with implementation of MRV system for GHG emissions in industry (indicate developments) Substitution of F-gases and progress towards targets under Kigali amendment to Montreal Protocol NDC progress indicators: AFOLU (agriculture) Headline indicators BAU GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Current GHG emissions (MtCO2e) Crop production (total t crop biomass) Livestock production (# population) Supporting indicators Crops Nutrient"


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"of Rwanda\u2019s NDC MRV MINALOC Coordinates the implementation of Districts Development Strategies (DDSs) and upstream reporting on NDC MRV performance at local levels Ensure the alignment between DDSs and Districts Imihigo and their contribution to NST1 targets that include NDC MRV NISR Provides oversight over environmental statistics that include climate change (NDC MRV) at national level."


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"policies and practices; plastic, metals and paper recycling rates) GREEN RWANDA RBME code Indicator Source (Metadata) International and regional good practices (Selected for National communication to UNFCCC) Percentage change in national climate change vulnerability index Source: Vulnerability Index study report Number and Percentage of districts at high risk of suffering major climate change effect National framework: (i) NST1; (ii) Sector strategic Plans (SSPs) and District Development Plans (DDSs); and (iii) Programs and Projects Percentage of the rural population living in Green Villages Source: Green Assessment tool Average level of satisfaction of major Weather and Climate information institutional users with METEO RWANDA Weather and Climate information Source: Weather and Climate information Users Survey Percentage of compliance of land use development plans to the NLUDMP Source: Department of Surveying, land use plans and Mapping, (RLMUA) Number and % of a) Mines, and b) Processors/ Exporters, using appropriate technologies to ensure industry standard recovery rates Source: Adapted Inspections Process or Mining Sites and Processors Survey/Assessment Water storage per capita Source: IWRM, Water Monitoring and Development Unit Number (%) of (a) Households, and (b)"


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"s energy in country power generation through construction of hydro, solar power plants and methane to electricity power plantshenceshiftin g from using fossil fuels for its electricity needs. Further to this, Rwanda is committed to create a regional interconnectivity through construction of new transmission lines and sub- stations and will improve/upgrade existing ones This will allow the import of electricity that would be otherwise generated from fossil fuel power plants (diesel or peat power plant) to meet the futute supply and demand for energy."


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"solar (MWp) # CFL replacements Efficient stoves (# HH) # SWH installations Manufacturing industry and agriculture # Efficient brick kilns Cement (% non-fossil energy use) # On-farm biodigesters Solar irrigation (Ha) International finance and support International contribution to finance mitigation measures (indicate activities and amounts) Technology transfer and capacity building activities (indicate activities) Other factors E-mobility, modal shift and other public transport progress (indicate key developments) Indicators of activity by mode of transport e.g."


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"spatial data by harnessing ICT and GIS (Geographic Information System) technology;  Rwanda will develop National Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) to manage the nation\u2019s land information resources and to identify the fundamental datasets required to manage land and water resources, monitor land use and environmental change, support economic development, and enable Rwanda to better plan, monitor, and respond to the impacts of climate change. It is planned that the establishment of the National Spatial Data Infrastructure will be operational by 2030."


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"technical skills to effectively coordinate and report on NDC implementation MoE (REMA and other NDC participating sectors) B 6 million USD Reduced GHG emissions from improved access to technology and knowledge Access to finance (Resource mobilisation) Cumulative volume of finance [USD millions] mobilized for climate and environmental purposes MINECOFIN / MoE (FONERWA, REMA and other NDC participating sectors) A 3 million USD Reduced GHG emissions from NDCs projects implementation GREEN RWANDA UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Funding requirements The cost estimates for adaptation interventions was made for the two phases, i.e."


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"technical/technology/ resources mobilization) will greatly benefit from: \u2022 Improving the use of existing data and analytical tools bearing in mind that Local/ sector context is crucial to climate vulnerability/resilience assessment; \u2022 Differentiating between climate change related issues and business-as-usual development; \u2022 Putting in place measures to facilitate data availability to measure the impact (to know that change has happened). The consultations undertaken through the NDC revision process have created momentum for ongoing engagement."


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"use practices MoE / MINAGRI / MININFRA / MINALOC (RLUMA, RAB, RHA, REMA, RFA, Districts, Private sector, Civil society) B 60 million USD Reduced GHG emissions from efficient land use and transport plus increased surface area for carbon sink Detailed spatial plans for all districts B % of compliance of land use development plans (LUDP) to the NLUDMP B GREEN RWANDA Develop a harmonized and integrated spatial data management system for sustainable land use management Accurate data on exposure to climate vulnerability on households (HHs) and infrastructures in high risk areas reported MoE / MINAGRI / MININFRA / MINALOC (RLUMA, RAB, RHA, REMA, RFA, Districts, Private sector, Civil society) B 20 million USD Reduced GHG emissions from efficient land use and increased surface area for carbon sink Percentage of operational integrated geospatial information framework integrated with environmental and socio-economic statistics B Inclusive land administration that regulate and provide guidance for land tenure security Percentage of registered state land optimally used MoE / MINAGRI / MININFRA / MINALOC (RLUMA, RAB, RHA, RFA) B 5 million USD Reduced GHG emissions from efficient land use and surface area for carbon sink Model linking land use/ administration in place B Human Settlements High density"


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"utilization of Landfill Gas (LFG) for power generation; approximately be reduced from this action.  communities Forestry Programme of action Actions Description and targets Adaptation benefits Baseline scenario Mitigation scenario Forestry, Agro forestry and Biomass Energy Mandate licensing of sustainable charcoal production techniques In 2012 Rwanda had a sink (or negative emissions) of - 2,540,000 tCO2e."


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"\u2022 Conduct joint sector reviews (Forward and Backward reviews) that will facilitate NDC MRV reporting and advocate for NDC MRV based decisions to wider sector stakeholders including NGOs/private sector and development partners \u2022 Monitor progress of the Sector Strategic Plan (SSP) including the NDC measuring and reporting, managing the data management system including aggregating data, conducting verification (REMA on NDC MRV) through the ENR RBME, a sector specific central data management system that will serve as the platform and repository for the NDC MRV."


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"\u2022 Further characterization of emitting sectors to enable more in-depth and robust modelling of factors determining output and corresponding energy use and GHG emissions (e.g. development of detailed road transport fleet modelling). \u2022 Use of recent information and data. In addition, the updated BAU projections makes use of more recently available information sources such as e.g. national population projections, official power demand and generation projections, transport and vehicle survey data, official statistics, policy planning documents etc."


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"\u2022 Higher Learning and Research Institutions \u2022 Private institutions, NGOs, CBOs, etc.\fUPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Role of NDC MRV technical working committee The chair for the technical working Committee for Rwanda\u2019s NDC MRV, REMA, will guide the selection of members that will form the technical working committee to provide technical oversight and ultimately present the MRV to the E&CC TWG for official endorsement."


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"\u2022 Population growth: Population increases within rural and urban areas will drive demand for road transport, housing, and other services, as well as levels of waste generation and resource use. Lower population growth will tend to restrain demand and GHG emissions levels. The National Institute of Statistics Rwanda (NISR) publishes population projections based on regulator household surveys and censuses. The most recent of these is the Fifth Integrated Household Living Survey, EICV5, (NISR, 2018)."


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"\u2022 Section 5 presents Rwanda\u2019s contribution to mitigation, including a description of GHG emissions mitigation options across key sectors and their reduction potential and funding requirements against a business-as-usual baseline to 2030, according to unconditional and conditional measures. \u2022 Section 6 summarises Rwanda\u2019s vulnerability to climate change and sets out a framework of proposed measures relating to adaptation and resilience."


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"\u2022 Section 7 proposes a measuring, reporting and verification (MRV) framework for implementing and tracking the mitigation and adaptation measures contained in the NDC, consistent with best practice and Rwanda\u2019s reporting requirements under UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. \u2022 Section 8 outlines the means of implementation for the mitigation and adaptation measures contained in the NDC. An Annex to this document outlines a framework of indicators for tracking implementation of the mitigation and adaptation contributions."


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"\u2022 Socio-economic impacts and co-benefits: mitigation actions should prioritize the most cost-effective options including those with developmental co-benefits and be acceptable to all entities involved taking account impacts and risks to affected groups including households, businesses, and communities. \u2022 Feasibility of implementation: mitigation actions should be feasible to implement in the specific context of the national infrastructure and legal framework, be in alignment with national policy aims and objectives, and be suitable to international support and climate finance consistent with the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement."


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"\u2022 Stage 2: Assess and prioritise mitigation actions: Identify and collect information on mitigation options within each sector based on extensive cross-departmental discussions between officials and experts, quantify their emissions reduction potential through 2030 compared to BAU and undertake an economic cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of each option. In order to prioritize actions and determine which can be supported domestically and which require international support, a multi-criteria-based assessment of the identified measures was undertaken to determine environmental effectiveness, socio-economic effectiveness and feasibility."


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"\u2022 Stage 3: Develop alternative GHG pathways for NDC: Model alternative GHG pathways based on the identified and prioritised mitigation options against the BAU baseline through 2030 to quantify emissions reduction potential for the NDC across sectors and associated costs and investment needs. The interaction between these three elements is shown below in Figure 5.2."


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"\u2022 The analysis builds on the first NDC work and other more recent studies including the Strategic Program for Climate Resilience (2017) along with the Gaps and Needs Analysis, the Forest Investment Program (2017), the vulnerability index (National, 2015 and District 2018), Rwanda National Communication to UNFCCC (2018), the Sector Strategic Plans (2017) and the first NDC Implementation Plan (2017). \u2022 Priority sectors were identified based on the NDC Partnership Plan that was led by the MoE with the support of the NDC Secretariat."


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"\u2022 This then helped set adaptation indicators to guide baselines and categories of metrics at global, national/sub-national (to influence SSPs and DDSs) and finally at program and project levels.\fUPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Mitigation Contribution Overview Rwanda\u2019s mitigation contribution takes the form of a reduction in GHG emissions relative to a business-as-usual (BAU) emissions baseline over the period 2015-2030."


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"\u2022 Ultimate level for endorsement of NDC MRV and communicates the results for upstream NDC MRV based policy and strategic decision making \u2022 Institutional Strengthening and capacity building and training and facilitating linkages through a comprehensive stakeholder engagement process and jointly define the political, strategic, and tactical elements of the NDC MRV system UPDATED NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION Mitigation MININFRA Energy and related indicators REG REMA, RHA, RDB, MINECOFIN, Rwanda Green Fund, MINALOC, RSB, MINISANTE, private sector, civil society Transport, related inidcators RTDA RURA, MINALOC, CoK, MINECOFIN, Rwanda Green Fund, operators, REMA, MoE, Private sector transport operators, financial institutions, civil society Waste relevant indicators MINALOC Municipalities, CoK and districts RURA, RHA, MoE, REMA, Private sector, NGOs, Civil Society, WASAC, REG, MINEACOM, MINAGRI, RDB, civil society MINICOM IPPU related indicators MINICOM MINECOFIN, MINAGRI,, MoE, REMA, FONERWA, WASAC, NIRDA,RDB, REG, MINALOC, Private sector, civil society MINAGRI AFOLU (agriculture) related indicators RAB and RFA REMA, RFA, RURA, Private Sector, civil society, WASAC, higher learning and research institutions Adaptation Line Ministry Activity/Indicator Lead Agency Key stakeholders MoE Percentage change in national climate change vulnerability index"


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"(b) Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for the implementation of policies and measures or strategies in the nationally determined contribution; Not applicable to South Africa\u2019s NDC. South Africa\u2019s NDC target is expressed in GHG emissions terms rather than in terms of policy goals."


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"(b) How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards Article 2, paragraph 1(a), and Article 4, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement. This update of our first NDC is South Africa\u2019s contribution to the global temperature goal of keeping temperature well below 2 \u00b0C and pursuing efforts to 1.5 \u00b0C below pre- industrial levels. Both of these agreed global temperature limits have informed our analysis of fairness and ambition, as explained above."


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"(b) Quantifiable information on the reference indicators, their values in the reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s), and, as applicable, in the target year; Not applicable, as above. (c) For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or polices and measures as components of nationally determined contributions where paragraph Not applicable, as above."


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"(b) Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered by the nationally determined contribution, including, as applicable, consistent with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines South Africa\u2019s first NDC covers sectors, gases, categories and pools consistent with our national inventory report (NIR) submitted together with SA\u2019s Fourth Biennial Update Report, excluding emissions from natural disturbances in the land sector. Sectors covered: \u2022 Energy \u2022 IPPU, \u2022 AFOLU \u2022 Waste The NDC is economy-wide."


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"(b) Specific information applicable to Parties, including regional economic integration organizations and their member States, that have reached an agreement to act jointly under Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement, including the Parties that agreed to act jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 16\u201318, of the Paris Agreement; Not applicable. South Africa has not reached any agreement to implement its NDC jointly with any other country."


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"(b) Whether it is a single-year or multi-year target, as applicable. South Africa\u2019s NDC contains mitigation targets for two single years, 2025 and 2030.\f  Provisions and sub-provisions of Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1 Information provided in respect of the updated South African NDC 3. Scope and coverage:  (a) General description of the target South Africa\u2019s NDC updated mitigation targets for 2025 and 2030 are specified in section 4 (c)  above. Details are replicated here for transparency, clarity and understanding."


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"(c) How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 3, of the Paris Agreement; (Article 4.3 states that \u201cEach Party\u2019s successive nationally determined contribution will represent a progression beyond the Party\u2019s then current nationally determined contribution and reflect its highest possible ambition, reflecting its common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances.\u201d) South Africa\u2019s updated mitigation targets as contained in Table 2 represent a significant progression."


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"(c) How the Party has taken into consideration paragraph 31(c) and (d) of decision 1/CP.21; South Africa\u2019s approach is inventory-based, hence all categories of anthropogenic emissions or removals included in the national inventory report (NIR) are included in the NDC, with the exception of emissions arising from natural disturbances in the land sector."


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"(c) How the Party\u2019s preparation of its nationally determined contribution has been informed by the outcomes of the global stocktake, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement; Since South Africa\u2019s NDC and the current update were completed before the first global stocktake, due to be held in 2023, South Africa has taken into account the outcome of the Talanoa Dialogue and the IPCC\u2019s Special Report on 1.5 degrees."


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"(c) If applicable, information on how the Party will take into account existing methods and guidance under the Convention to account for anthropogenic emissions and removals, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 14, of the Paris Agreement, as appropriate; Information on accounting is contained in 5(a) above. (d) IPCC methodologies and metrics used for estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals; IPCC methodologies: 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories; 2013 Kyoto Protocol Supplement (for harvested wood products)."


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"(d) How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement; (Article 4.4 states that \u201cDeveloped country Parties should continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction South Africa has updated its mitigation targets, which are economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets for 2025 and 2030."


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"(d) Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties\u2019 adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans, including description of specific projects, measures and initiatives of Parties\u2019 adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans. Not applicable to South Africa\u2019s NDC, which is not defined in terms of mitigation co- benefits of adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans. 4."


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"(d) Target relative to the reference indicator, expressed numerically, for example in percentage or amount of reduction; Not applicable, as above. (e) Information on sources of data used in quantifying the reference point(s); Not applicable, as above. (f) Information on the circumstances under which the Party may update the values of the reference indicators. Not applicable, as above. 2."


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"(e) Sector-, category- or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate, including, as applicable:  (i) Approach to addressing emissions and subsequent removals from natural disturbances on managed lands: In South Africa\u2019s NIR, South Africa\u2019s entire land area is considered \u201cmanaged\u201d for purposes of estimating emissions and removals from the land sector."


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"(f) Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the nationally determined contribution and, if applicable, estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including:  (i) How the reference indicators, baseline(s) and/or reference level(s), including, where applicable, sector-, category- or activity- specific reference levels, are constructed, including, for example, key parameters, assumptions, definitions, methodologies, data sources and models used; Not applicable \u2013 South Africa does not have a reference indicator."


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"(ii) Approach used to account for emissions and removals from harvested wood products; South Africa uses a production approach, following the updated guidance provided in the 2013 IPCC Kyoto Protocol Supplement (IPCC, 2014). (iii) Approach used to address the effects of age-class structure in forests; Not applicable \u2013 South Africa does not use this approach."


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"(ii) For Parties with nationally determined contributions that contain non- greenhouse-gas components, information on assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable; Not applicable \u2013 South Africa does not include non-GHG components in its NDC mitigation target."


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"(iii) For climate forcers included in nationally determined contributions not covered by IPCC guidelines, information on how the climate forcers are estimated; Not applicable \u2013 South Africa does not include black carbon, since it is not a substance controlled by the UNFCCC or Paris Agreement. (iv) Further technical information, as necessary; Not applicable. (g) The intention to use voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, if applicable."


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"(not applicable to historical efforts up to  Equity The Paris Agreement in its Article 2 and 7.1 provides for increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impact of climate change in line with the goals towards limiting global average temperature increases; the agreement further in Article 7.2 recognizes the global nature of the adaptation responsibility. In this respect, Africa and South Africa, are warming at a rate that is about twice the global average temperature increase (Wolski 2019)."


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"- 30% reduction in the fossil fuel intensity of municipality vehicle fleets (measured as total fossil fuel consumption by municipal vehicles per capita of population served), by 2030. Residential sector - 33% reduction in the average specific energy consumption of new household appliances purchased in South Africa, by 2030. - 20% reduction in the average specific energy consumption of the residential building stock, by 2030."


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"4 The Department changed its name to DFFE with effect from 1 April 2021; changing the sequence from DEFF. In 2019, there had been a merger of the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) with the forestry and fisheries components of the Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Various documents are referenced to DEA, DEFF and DFFE, referring to the same national Department."


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"5 Goals and actions are covered in each elements contained in this NDC as per the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy published on: www.environment.gov.za\f  Elements Undertaking for the period Assumptions / Methodologies / Context Efforts Adaptation investment settlements should be prioritised in addressing climate risks such as sea-level rise and flooding.  Infrastructure: Ensure the development and deployment of climate-resilient infrastructure that enhance water and energy security. Integration of climate information into infrastructure development planning."


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"5 Note that the figure excludes embedded generation, due to a lack of information on how much has already been installed. Coal Hydro Nuclear Storage PV Wind CSP Gas/diesel\f  The 2019 IRP is based on the current articulation of the PPD trajectory. Future updates to the IRP will need to take into account any future modifications to the emissions trajectory. In this way electricity supply planning will be aligned with the country\ufffds increasing national ambition."


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"53,339 full-time equivalent (FTE)14 jobs were also created, 48,085 of which went to locals (DoE, 2019a). The economics of energy generation has changed in South Africa, and a growing body of evidence shows that renewable energy is now the cheapest form of electricity generation locally. Given the very carbon-intensive nature of South Africa\ufffds national grid, and local energy investment needs going forward, this creates an unprecedented opportunity for South Africa to absorb climate finance."


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"6 It is understood that the CERC calculator will be updated with post-COVID growth rates in the latter part of 2021, and that this will very likely have an impact on SA\u2019s fair share range according to CERC. A comparison of the expected updated values (provided by the CERC team) with existing values and sensitivity analysis, can be found in (UCT 2021a).\f  Provisions and sub-provisions of Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1 Information provided in respect of the updated South African NDC targets."


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"6 South Africa\u2019s whole updated target range for 2030 (as contained in Table 2) lie within the 2 \u00b0C fair share range based on the post- September 2020 version of CAT (UCT 2021a). The lower end of South Africa\u2019s 2030 target range lies within CERC\u2019s 1.5 degree assessment (UCT 2021a). South Africa bears a disproportionate burden of adaptation to the adverse impacts of climate change (CSIR 2020)."


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"8 Transnet is the state-owned entity responsible for managing rail infrastructure and operation, ports and pipelines\f  Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP) The National Industrial Policy Framework (NIPF) was adopted as a broad framework governing industrial policy in South Africa, and thus articulates the overarching approach to industrial development (dti, 2007). The implementation plan for the framework is contained in the Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP), which is revised at various intervals."


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"9 Note that with a government restructure Forestry and Fisheries has now been combined with Environmental Affairs, while Agriculture has been combined with agriculture and the department of rural development and land reform. The implications of this restructuring on policy implementation has not yet been considered.\f  The DAFF Draft Conservation Agriculture Policy (DAFF, 2017b) provides a basis for national and sector policy support for increasing the uptake of conservation agriculture (CA), including no-till, conservation till, precision agriculture and meat production efficiency."


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"A detailed description of current policy implementation-related needs is provided in South Africa\u2019s Biennial Update Reports under the Convention and in the forthcoming Biennial Transparency Reports under the Paris Agreement. This update increases South Africa\u2019s level of mitigation ambition. While some investments are already being made domestically and will continue, international support will be required. The key to this increased level of mitigation ambition is the electricity sector."


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"A few subcategories are not estimated due to either activities not occurring in South Africa or lack of data. These are reported in the NIR. Gases: all gases covered in the NIR as above, which includes five greenhouse gases \u2013 CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs and PFCs. The South African NDC does not include SF6 or NF3 for these implementation periods due to lack of data."


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"A forward-looking fiscal strategy, aware of the options and flexible to the evolution of new markets, will\f  enhance such opportunities for South Africa, which will in turn bring export opportunities to Africa and the rest of the world."


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"A just transition means leaving no-one behind. It requires procedural equity to lead to equitable outcomes. A just transition is at the core of implementing climate action in South Africa, as detailed in both the mitigation and adaptation goals presented below."


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"A long-term perspective is important, to continue to build capacity for deep and rapid decarbonisation, and for adaptation to the impacts climate change. Long and deep transformations, for example in producing green steel, require international cooperation and support. In such transformations, we will seek to raise further awareness of the financial and technical support available for promoting the strengthening of gender integration into climate policies, including good practices to facilitate access to climate finance for grassroots women s organizations and indigenous peoples and local communities."


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"A mandatory requirement for qualification for this incentive is that projects demonstrate use of energy efficient equipment (in the case of greenfield projects) or at least 15% energy improvement relative to a baseline (brownfield projects) \ufffd Section 12K provides for tax exemptions on proceeds gained from the disposal of certified emission reductions derived from activities registered with the Clean Development Mechanism."


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"A number of Cities are also members of global City movements relating to climate action and city networks that contribute to the climate change agenda such as 100 Resilient Cities, ICLEI Local Governments for Sustainability, and C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group. Many have internal (through their statutory planning documents) and global carbon commitments and targets that apply to the functions of Transport planning, Urban development and Spatial planning, Infrastructure investment and service delivery."


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"A number of South Africa\ufffds existing coal-fired power stations will be retired between 2030 and 2050, and so large investments in additional generation capacity will be needed in order to meet the projected electricity demand and sustain economic growth. Across the country favourable conditions for wind power are found, and the high levels of solar irradiation make it ideal for solar power. Biomass opportunities are available, many of which are along the east coast which is tropical and characterised by large wood and sugar plantations."


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"A plausible increase in \u201cextremely hot days\u201d (a hazard indicating an increase in days where health will be at risk from exposure to high temperature) is projected in the north, north-east and north-east interior of the country. For human health, \u201cmodifying factors\u201d such as age, nutritional status, access to services and underlying health conditions are known to exacerbate the impacts of climate, and these call for adaptation actions in the sector."


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"A range of GHG emissions levels for 2025 and 2030 were derived from these tools as a guide to South Africa\u2019s \u201cfair share\u201d of global emissions, based on long-term emission pathways which are consistent with global temperature limits of \u201cwell below 2 \u00b0C\u201d (assuming a 66% probability below 2 \u00b0C) and 1.5 \u00b0C, i.e. the long-term temperature limits contained in Article 2.1(a) of the Paris Agreement. It should be noted that these relative fair shares for South Africa imply corresponding fair shares for other countries."


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"A rigorous analysis of South Africa\u00b4s competitiveness in the different commercial and industrial sectors which are likely to present the greatest opportunities from the sustainable transformation should inform the specific support provided to this agenda. This analysis should look across a spectrum of economic benefits, from value-chain analysis of likely technology rollouts, to regional and global competitive advantages under different scenarios. Key to the innovation, skills and value capture strategy is the idea of a 30-year transition."


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"A scenario was also tested in the 2019 IRP where the emissions space available to the sector under the PPD (5,470 Mt CO2) is divided into three ten-year carbon budgets. Drawing on the scenarios analysed in the IRP 2019, an \ufffdemerging long-term plan\ufffd to 2030 has been developed."


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"According to the IRP, the decommissioning schedule shows that about 10,599 MW of Eskom\ufffds coal generation capacity will be decommissioned by 2030, with the figure increasing to 35,000 MW by 2050. For reference, the installed capacity in in 2018 was 37,149 MW. The IRP is developed by first projecting the country\ufffds long-term electricity demand, taking into account the impact of both population growth and economic development, and the role that energy-efficiency and demand-side interventions can play."


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"According to the UNFCCC (2018), US$ 74.5 billion of climate finance flowed to developing countries in 2016. International public climate finance flows to developing countries, however, averaged US$ 58 billion for 2015 and 2016. Oxfam (2018) believes public climate finance flows from developed to developing countries are much lower at between US$ 16 billion to US$ 21 billion. The OECD (2019) estimated the value to be US$ 46.9 billion in 2016 and US$ 54.5 billion in 2017."


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"Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) The adaptation component of South Africa\u2019s INDC will address adaptation through six goals, underpinned by key elements of adaptation planning, costing of adaptation investment requirements, equity, and means of implementation. The table below outlines information on the adaptation component of South Africa\u2019s INDC, based on the commitments of Parties provided for in Article 4 and the provisions of Article 12 of the Convention."


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"Adaptation costs are difficult to quantify, but it could cost South Africa more than US$ 30 billion per annum to adapt to climate change for the period 2021-2030, and the incremental cost of mitigation action is estimated at more than US$ 1,350 billion in total over the period 2020-2050, or roughly US$ 44 billion per year (DEA, 2015; DEA, 2019b)."


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"Adaptation needs and costs Goal 5: Development of a vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs framework by 2020 to support a continuous presentation of adaptation needs Biennial study of climate related impacts and responses detect through the early warning, vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system, with a view to determine cost effectiveness of responses and recommend improved or alternative responses."


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"Additional opportunities for investment and growth will follow if the fiscal regime is inviting to new business which seek to on-shore significant portions of the value chain of the industries which will lead the sustainable transition; rather than zero-sum tariffs or restrictions, long-term policies which encourage investment, innovation, skills development, and early leadership of local markets which are likely to evolve later in neighboring countries, will all contribute to national wealth creation."


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"Additionally, defining a carbon budget or space over time provides  2 The carbon budget approach of Chinese (CASS / DRC joint project team 2011) and Indian researchers (Jayaraman , Kanitkar & dsouza 2011) allocates 7-11 Gt CO2 \u2013eq to South Africa for the period 2000\u20132049,  and a meta-analysis of different approaches shows that the analysis of different effort-sharing approaches yields carbon budgets for South Africa that are significantly smaller than the PPD trajectory range."


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"Adoption of the Paris Agreements \ufffd 21st Conference of the Parties. Paris: United Nations. Available at:   [Accessed June 2019]. UNFCCC, (2018). 2018 Biennial Assessment and Overview of Climate Finance Flows - Summary and recommendations by the Standing Committee on Finance on the 2018 Biennial Assessment and Overview of Climate Finance Flows. Available at: %20UNFCCC%20BA%202018%20-%20Summary%20Final.pdf [Accessed June 2019]. Vermeulen, R., Schets, E., Lohuis, M., K\u00f6lbl, B., Jansen, D., Heeringa, W., (2018). An energy transition risk stress test for the financial system of the Netherlands."


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"Agriculture sector - 1 PJ verified electricity saving from officially supported projects, annually Transport sector - 20% reduction in the average vehicle energy intensity (measured in MJ/km) of the South African road vehicle fleet, by 2030.  The NEES also identifies a set of measures to be implemented in each sector to achieve the stated targets. These are shown in Table 3."


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"Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU) South Africa\ufffds agricultural sector is diverse, with distinct farming regions that vary with climate, soil type and farming practices. The sector includes field crops, horticulture and animal products. Animal products currently generate the highest proportion of gross farm sector income, although the contribution from horticulture products is growing (DAFF, 2017a). Commodities produced include maize, wheat, sugar, deciduous fruit and citrus, wine, beef, dairy, lamb, pork, poultry and game."


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"Agriculture, forestry and fisheries sectors are critical in attracting foreign exchange, job creation and production of raw material for the economy. Across South Africa, the increase in temperatures and changing rainfall patterns will bring about distinct risks for different crops and commodities in different growing areas. The most important impacts in the near future will be on crops, tree species and livestock produced in marginal growing areas where growing conditions are already close to temperature and water availability thresholds."


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"All along the way provision needs to be made for regular review of the Strategy and the implementation plan, and M&E of implementation."


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"All of these elements must be kept in mind as we enhance our long-term development vision. Determining a trajectory to carbon neutrality will require a number of processes. Sectoral scenario analyses will be required to inform on the range of options. For these, traditional \ufffdincremental\ufffd modeling techniques will be insufficient, so a transformational approach will be required."


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"Along with other developing countries, South Africa is especially vulnerable to its impacts, particularly in respect of water and food security, as well as impacts on health, human settlements, and infrastructure and ecosystem services. In this regard, South Africa is committed to cooperative efforts to adapt to the unavoidable adverse impacts of climate change."


id: 76dd8356654cac2b75889f5b1a970f39
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"Along with other developing nations, South Africa is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. In unmitigated GHG emissions scenarios, warming of up to 5 to 8\u00b0C is projected over the interior of the country by the end of this century. Under a range of warming scenarios, drier conditions will be experienced in the west and south of the country and wetter conditions in the east. Rainfall patterns will become more variable and unpredictable."


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"Although the regulations were published in 2012, implementation has not yet begun. However, in 2019 the Energy Minister signalled a commitment to implementing the biofuels regulatory framework to support a local biofuels industry. Through inclusion in SA-LEDS the intention to support implementation of the Strategy is signalled."


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"Although this has not yet been resolved at the national level, number of individual municipalities have already put in place grid feed-in tariffs. The IRP also proposes a set of research and analysis activities to be undertaken to support the low carbon transition of the electricity supply sector."


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"An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Po\u0308rtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. P\ufffdan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)."


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"An aggregate understanding of the evolution over time of such critical factors such as levels of capital investment, consumer prices of different energy options, and requirements for skilled workers in various industries (increasing and decreasing), will set out the parameters for the cross-cutting approaches detailed in Section 6.2. Creation of policy package roadmaps across three phases The likelihood of policy action leading to long-term transformation results would require the application of new planning techniques."


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"An example of this is the US$ 98 million FIRST fund that offers long term debt finance to local small renewable energy projects (FIRST fund, undated). The fund is a collaboration between a local bank and the German KfW Development Bank (KfW), and is underpinned by a first-loss debt facility and grant-type funding from KfW (Hawarden, undated). Despite the sophistication and depth of South African financial markets, a number of barriers remain that restrict the flow of funding to climate change projects."


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"Analysis of the incremental costs of mitigation actions indicates that significant finance and investment will be required in the long-term. The following estimates are of total incremental costs required: 1. Estimated incremental cost to expand REI4P in next ten years: US$3 billion per year. 2. Decarbonised electricity by 2050 - estimated total of US$349 billion from 2010. 3. CCS: 23 Mt CO2 from the coal-to-liquid plant - US$0.45 billion. 4. Electric vehicles - US$513 billion from 2010 till 2050. 5."


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"Announce a 15-year trajectory for the successive tightening of the energy performance component of building standards for residential buildings and successively tighten standards Build on the existing awareness-raising activities targeting households and the school curriculum Roll-out the provision of energy and activity data from the residential sector Support technology innovation and dissemination of energy efficient cookstove technologies Commercial sector Introduce mandatory Energy Performance Certificates in all rented properties and publicly accessible buildings Revise 12L to ensure it provides an incentive to commercial property owners Introduce standards and labelling relevant for commercial sector appliances and equipment Roll-out the provision of energy and activity data from the commercial sector Adjust the 12L tax incentive scheme Sector Measures Time frame Industrial sector Develop minimum energy performance standards for motors and motor-driven systems Provide targeted support and advice on energy efficiency to enterprises Incentivise enterprises to introduce Energy Management Systems and achieve ISO50001 certification standards Roll-out the provision of energy and production data from the manufacturing sub- sector Develop standardised tools for voluntary reporting of energy savings from initiatives in the mining sector Create"


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"Annual Conferences of the Parties (or COPs) have achieved different milestones since the first meeting in 1994. The Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997, set out the first concrete emissions reductions targets, which were adopted by some Annex I (developed) countries. However, these reductions were insufficient to stop climate change. A global deal, seeking to involve all countries, was pursued at COP15 in 2009 but was not achieved, leaving many Parties concerned about the complexity of agreeing such a deal."


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"Any international transfers of mitigation outcomes to other Parties will be accounted for as specified in decisions of the CMA. South Africa currently hosts a number of CDM projects under the Kyoto Protocol. Whether these will be recognised in terms of Article 6 of the Paris Agreement is still a subject of ongoing negotiations. It is expected that South Africa will host Article 6.4 projects under the Paris Agreement, and may enter into co-operative approaches under Article 6.2 with other countries."


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"Apart from the production of liquid fuels, crude oil and coal are both used to produce a variety of petrochemical products such as lubricants, bitumen and solvents. Being a net crude oil importer leaves South Africa vulnerable to price fluctuations and volatility on global oil markets. Natural gas plays a relatively minor role in the primary energy supply. Local production is mainly from the Bredasdorp Basin, which lies offshore on the southern coastline. This basin supplies natural gas to PetroSA\ufffds Mossel Bay GTL facility."


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"Article 4 of the Agreement sets out Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as the instrument countries must develop to present their part of the global effort to \ufffdreach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century, on the basis of equity and \ufffdin the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty\ufffd (UNFCCC, 2015)."


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"Article 4 of the Agreement sets out Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) as the instrument countries must develop to present their part of the global effort to \ufffdreach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible\u2026 on the basis of equity and \ufffdin the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty\ufffd."


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"As South Africa continues to strengthen its response to climate change as part of a global effort, it will increase its focus on a range of strategic elements that will together promote the change to low carbon growth, while continuing to align with the goals of the Paris Agreement."


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"As South Africa improves its systems for estimating land sector emissions, recalculations may result in significant changes in previously reported GHG estimates.\f  In addition, more accurate land sector reporting will lead to higher variability in GHG emissions from natural disturbances from wildfires, which will also become more common in South Africa as a result of climate change. The extent to which adaptation measures will need to be implemented will depend on what is achieved globally in terms of mitigation.  \f  8. References)and)further)information) CSIR. 2021."


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"As South Africa indicated at the UN Secretary General\u2019s Climate Action Summit in 2019, as part of ensuring a just transition we will need to put measures in place that plan for workforce reskilling and job absorption, social protection and livelihood creation, incentivising new green sectors of our economy, diversifying coal dependent regional economies, and developing labour and social plans as and when ageing coal-fired power plants and associated coal production infrastructure are decommissioned."


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"As South Africa play its part within a global effort, a range of technical pathways will be developed for low carbon development. The strategy development process will evaluate the opportunities within a new model of development, and the benefits of achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, alongside the challenges to the transition and the international enablers available."


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"As a member of the G20, where countries have committed to phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, South Africa has indicated willingness to identify and minimise their harmful impacts, taking cognisance of its developmental state. The subsidies undermine the competitiveness of renewable energy, divert financial resources from development of priority sectors and services such as education, health, and infrastructure; and encourage the extraction and overconsumption of fossil fuels (as they are under-priced)."


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"As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, South Africa subscribes to the view that a progression in climate ambition will be necessary to achieve the global long-term goals, with all parties taking part in this progression in ambition with regards to mitigation, adaptation, and means of implementation, in accordance with the principles of the Convention."


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"As climate science continues to further our understanding of the challenges and potential solutions to climate change, and economic reality broadens the range of options and global willingness to invest in them, South Africa will continue to both strengthen its commitments and communicate in a compelling manner how they represent our fair contribution to the global achievement of the Paris Agreement."


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"As highlighted in our National Development Plan, South Africa faces a triple development challenge of poverty, inequality and unemployment. circumstances\"\" It is in this context that the update of our first NDC must be understood. The update represents a progression within our first NDC, and reflects our highest possible level of ambition, based on science and equity, in light of our national circumstances. As communicated in section 4 (c)  the updated mitigation targets demonstrate considerable progression."


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"As it continues to strengthen its response to climate change as part of a global effort, South Africa will increase its focus on a range of strategic elements that will together promote the change to low carbon growth, while continuing to align with the goals of the Paris Agreement."


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"As noted above, South Africa\u2019s mitigation NDC target is also informed by the Talanoa Dialogue and the IPCC special report on 1.5\u00b0C. South Africa has updated its NDC target ranges taking into account our status as a developing county, our national circumstances and common but differentiated responsibility and respective capability, and the long-term temperature goal, as specified in the Paris Agreement\u2019s Article 2, in the light of the latest science."


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"As the Call for Action by the Presidents of COP23 and COP24 states, \u201cwe must achieve a just transformation towards a better world.\u201d We believe this to be true globally. In South Africa, a just transition is core to shifting our development pathway to increased sustainability, fostering climate resilient and low greenhouse gas emissions development, while providing a better life for all."


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"As the sectoral pathways are fully identified, the required sequence of steps for their implementation should be mapped onto the current institutional framework in order to establish where current coordination arrangements, as shown in Table 4, are suitable, and where it would make sense to consider adjustments. It is important to recall that these will be pathways of transformation, spanning 30 years and requiring multi-step processes which should be mapped out in somewhat detailed sequence."


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"As with the first NDC, coverage and scope of the mitigation targets in this updated NDC are on the same basis as the most recent National Inventory Report (as above). Coverage of the NDC is thus economy-wide, including the land sector (see note below), and includes the five gases currently covered by the NIR (CO2, CH4, N2O, HFCs, PFCs). The current NIR uses Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC\u2019s 2nd Assessment Report, which have been used for setting the updated NDC targets."


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"Assumptions South Africa\u2019s INDC is premised on the adoption of a comprehensive, ambitious, fair, effective and binding multilateral rules-based agreement under the UNFCCC at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21) in Paris."


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"Assumptions: In accordance with the Convention, it is assumed that the extent to which developing country Parties will effectively implement their commitments will depend on the effective implementation by developed country Parties of their commitments under the Convention relating to financial resources, development and transfer of technology, and capacity building. The INDC is put forward within the context of equitable access to sustainable development and will take fully into account that equity, economic and social development and poverty eradication are the first and overriding priorities."


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"At COP 17, held in Durban, South Africa in 2011, the \ufffdAd Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action\ufffd (ADP) was established to \"develop a protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the Convention applicable to all Parties\". The work of the ADP culminated in the drafting of the text which was negotiated and ultimately adopted in 2015 by the Parties to the Convention, including South Africa, as the Paris Agreement."


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"At the heart of this part of the transition to a low-carbon energy sector is a complete transformation of the future energy mix, which is designed to replace an inefficient fleet of ageing coal-fired power plants with clean and high efficiency technology going forward. To date, we have facilitated substantial investment in renewable energy and two new high- efficiency coal-fired power stations are nearing completion as part of the ageing plant replacement programme."


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"At the same time, if climate change is to be limited through limiting the growth in global GHG emissions, with South Africa contributing its fair share to emission reductions, there will be other implications for the country. As one of the top 20 emitters globally, with a high dependency on fossil fuels, substantial emission\f  cuts will be required. The rapid transition that will be required presents a potential risk to economic growth and sustainable development if not managed properly."


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"At the same time, many of these plans were developed prior to the adoption of the Paris Agreement and do not consider the long-term, global goals in a coordinated manner and address a shorter timeframe than mid-century. Keeping SA- LEDS as a dynamic and flexible document is important to ensure it keeps pace with domestic policy developments, research, development and innovation, and declining costs of emissions mitigation technologies."


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"Available at: df, [Accessed June 2019]. DEA, (2017). South Africa\ufffds 2nd Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Pretoria: Department of Environmental Affairs. Available at:   annex_i_parties/biennial_update_reports/application/pdf/south_africa_2nd_bur.pdf, [Accessed June 2019]. DEA, (2018a). South Africa State of Waste Report \ufffd Draft Report. Pretoria: Department of Environmental Affairs. Available at:   [Accessed June 2019]. DEA, (2018b). South Africa s Third National Communication Under the UNFCCC, Pretoria, South Africa: Department of Environmental Affairs. Available at: CC_31%20Aug.pdf, [Accessed June 2019]. DEA, (2019a)."


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"Based on an analysis of the scenario outcomes, the IEP can define the future trajectories for electricity, liquid fuels and gas in the country. The current IEP dates from 2003, and the Department of Energy has been working on updates thereof, with a draft IEP outlining various energy scenarios having been issued in 2016 (DoE, 2016a). The draft IEP provides an indication of the sectoral energy demand, as shown in Figure 6."


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"Based on the sectoral pathways work, which will identify the requirements of the different sectors, a cross-cutting analysis of such pathways will help identify common needs. An aggregate understanding of the evolution over time of such critical factors such as levels of capital investment, consumer prices of different energy options, and requirements for skilled workers in various industries (increasing and decreasing), will set out the parameters for the cross-cutting strategies described previously."


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"Baseline studies on the adoption of more stringent fuel standards will help to provide a platform for introducing cleaner fuel standards; and \ufffd Facilitating a shift of freight from road to rail. This is in recognition that freight transport was previously moved off rail onto road as a result of constraints in the country\ufffds rail service, with road-based freight transport currently accounting for around 75% of total freight moved. The road-to-rail shift will be supported by the implementation of Transnet\ufffds8 Market Demand Strategy."


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"Because of this, avoiding decisions which will lead to emissions lock-in is a core priority of the \ufffdStarting Right\ufffd stage. The second stage, \ufffdTurning the Corner\ufffd would typically take five to seven years. This phase will begin to be implemented in parallel with  the \ufffdStarting Right\ufffd stage, where appropriate, and continue to 2025. This period is decisive, since within it new decision and investment criteria are broadly applied, bringing about changes to the day-to-day operation of many sectors of the economy at the same time."


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"Biodiversity: Enhance the Monitoring of Climate Change impacts on Biodiversity and Ecological Infrastructure, Human Settlements: ensure urban planning and design incorporates climate change concerns. Consideration of climate risk in the new settlement and mainstreaming of climate science into the building standards will be catalytic to facilitate climate-resilient human settlement. Coastal Settlement: urban and rural USD - billion required for the implementation of the NCCAS for a period 2021 to 2030 to support South Africa."


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"Biofuels in mitigation of emissions from liquid fuels \ufffd The Biofuels Industrial Strategy and Regulations provide an instrument that, once implemented, can later be ratcheted up to increase mitigation impact. \ufffd Ongoing work will be required to ensure availability of feedstocks to meet increased demand without jeopardising food security (which is primarily a concern in the case of first-generation biofuels), and prioritise which sectors should be allocated limited biomass resources based on a lack of other mitigation options such as long-haul aviation."


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"Biofuels opportunities The Biofuels Industrial Strategy of the Republic of South Africa (DMR, 2007) outlines Government\ufffds approach to the development of a biofuel sector in the country. The primary aim of the Strategy is to address poverty and unemployment, although the role in climate change mitigation in the liquid fuels sector is recognised. The Strategy proposed a 2% penetration of biofuels in the national liquid fuel supply (400 million litres per annum), within five years of its publication."


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"Both indigenous forests and exotic forest plantations make up the remainder, with indigenous forests occupying less than 0.3% of South Africa\ufffds land area (GeoTerraImage, 2013) and forest plantations occupying 1% of the overall land area. Changes in land use can result in the release of carbon stocks. The National Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Assessment (NTCSA) (2015) indicated that transformation of land through land uses including crop agriculture can reduce soil carbon by 40 to 60% from what existed in a natural grassland and savannah."


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"Building a scenario is, however, not enough to plan for its delivery. The work of translating such a plan to policy is a challenge which all Parties will have to grapple with over the coming months and years. South Africa aims to inform rollout plans through the use of a dedicated change framework (Section 6.2)."


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"Building on existing plans, policies and aligned research, and particularly the work that is supported by robust analytical and domestic engagement processes, offers numerous benefits, such as optimizing resources and ensuring buy-in of key stakeholders. At the same time, many of these plans were developed prior to the adoption of the Paris Agreement and therefore do not consider the long-term, global goals embedded therein in the coordinated fashion that is required. Furthermore, most of these pre-existing plans and policies address a shorter timeframe than mid-century."


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"By assigning a Carbon Budget to an entity, a signal is provided as to the degree of GHG mitigation that is required within a specific time period, with a penalty being imposed if the budget allocation is exceeded."


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"By implementing these domestic measures, South Africa is showing that implementation is part of our ambition.\f  The long-term decarbonization of the South African economy will in the 2020s focus primarily on the electricity sector; in the 2030s, a deeper transition will take place in the electricity sector, coupled with a transition in the transport sector towards low emission vehicles; while the 2040s and beyond will be characterized by the decarbonization of the hard-to-mitigate sectors."


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"By the end of June 2019, the REIPPPP had achieved the following (DoE, 2019a): \ufffd 6,422 MW of electricity had been procured from 112 Renewable Energy Independent Power Producers (IPPs) in seven bid rounds; \ufffd 3,976 MW of electricity generation capacity from 64 IPP projects has been connected to the national grid; \ufffd 35,669 GWh of energy has been generated by renewable energy sources procured under the REIPPPP since the first project became operational."


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"CO2 emissions from biomass burning are included under losses due to disturbance in the land section (3B) and not in the biomass burning (3C1) section of the national inventory report at present. Emissions from wildfires are estimated and included in each relevant land\f  Provisions and sub-provisions of Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1 Information provided in respect of the updated South African NDC category. For the purposes of accounting for South Africa\u2019s NDC target, emissions from natural disturbances will be excluded from the total."


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"Carbon Budgets \ufffd Carbon budgets provide a mechanism for driving mitigation action in the private sector. \ufffd Penalties for not complying with the budgets (which will take the form of the carbon tax), will need to be sufficient to drive continued mitigation ambition. Phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies/incentives Fossil fuels are used across a number of the economic sectors in South Africa."


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"Carbon prices must evolve over time to effectively discourage fossil fuel and other emissions, while providing clear market signals to investors in zero emission technologies that their investments will provide suitable returns over their useful lifetimes. Visibility over future carbon prices, such as legislating for a ramp-up over several years, provides clarity that carbon-intense investments will become uncompetitive and thus stranded, thereby informing decisions which may lock the country into future emissions."


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"Certain HFCs and PFCs were reported on in the IPPU (industrial processes and product use) sectors. Fluorinated gases are estimated to have contributed less than 0.3% to the total GHG budget over the period 2000 \u2013 2010. A process is under way to estimate SF6 emissions from power generation. Uncertainties such as the above are to be bounded over time. In the on-going process of implementing the mitigation system, methodologies will be  Uncertainties exist in the adaptation methodology used to estimate costs."


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"Chapter 5 is dedicated to \ufffdEnvironmental Sustainability \ufffd An equitable transition to a low-carbon economy\ufffd and addresses both the use of natural resources and mineral deposits to support the transition of the economy to a diverse, inclusive and low-carbon future, and tackling developmental challenges towards building resilience to the impacts of climate change, particularly in poorer communities."


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"Clearly, Article 2.1 (a) of the Paris Agreement contains two global temperature limits \u2013 limiting global temperature increase to \u201cwell below 2\u00b0C\u201d, and \u201cpursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 \u00b0C\u201d. There is a single aim, to limit global temperature increase, with two quantified goals \u2013 well below 2 and 1.5 \u00b0C."


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"Clearly, the \ufffdStarting Right\ufffd stage cannot be successfully executed without a long-term pathways analysis to provide confidence on the Paris-compatibility of implemented measures as well as the overall direction of travel. Indeed, the search for immediate emissions reductions in the short-term can often lead to investments in technologies or business models which, while emitting less than traditional options, are not on track to drive the large reductions demanded by the long-term transformation."


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"Climate impacts have become a reality over the last decade rather than purely a risk to be prepared for. Second, lower than expected GHG emissions have been estimated over the last decade, which are partly a result of lower economic growth, but also a result of a drop in GHG intensity in the economy."


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"Cloete, B., Dane, A., Child, A., Russell, E., Cartwright, A., (2016). Market Analysis - Final Report, Pretoria: USAID/South African Low Emissions Development Program (SA-LED). Cloete, B., Cohen, B., Lewis, Y., Munro, S., Ramkolowan, Y., (2018). Barriers to Private Sector Finance for Low Carbon Activities in Industrial Sectors in South African. Working Paper Developed by DNA Economics with support from The Green House. DAFF, (2017a). Economic Review of the South African Agriculture 2017/2018. Available at: ion/Economic%20Review%202017%20-18.pdf, [Accessed June 2019]. DAFF, (2017b)."


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"Commercial sector - 37% reduction in the specific energy consumption (measured as GJ annual energy consumption per m2 of lettable/habitable floor area), by 2030. Industry sector - 16% reduction in the weighted mean specific energy consumption for the manufacturing industry, by 2030 - 40 PJ cumulative total annual energy saving from specific energy saving interventions undertaken by in the mining subsector."


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"Common characteristics between scenarios that succeed and those that do not will help policymakers identify those conditions which must be met in order for the transition to succeed, aligned with Paris in a manner consistent with the latest science from the IPCC. Based on the sectoral pathways work, which will identify the requirements of the different sectors, a cross-cutting analysis of such pathways will help identify common needs."


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"Comprehensive adaptation related training of development planners, regulators and practitioners.  Specific adaptation planning at sub-national level, taking into account specific or unique geographical circumstances, will be integrated into sub-national development frameworks, land use schemes and the planning authorisation system in terms of provisions of and standards set in the Spatial Land Use Management Act (SPLUMA).  Development of national framework for early warning, vulnerability and needs assessment well before 2020."


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"Concentrations of GHGs in the atmosphere have been rising steadily since the industrial revolution (circa 1760), mainly as a result of the burning of fossil fuels, industrial processes, deforestation and agricultural activities. An extensive global body of research from climate scientists has confirmed the relationship between human-induced GHG emissions, higher global average surface temperatures and changes to the earth\ufffds climate system (IPCC, 2014; IPCC, 2018)."


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"Context: National Priorities and Circumstances South Africa\u2019s national response considers both development needs and climate change imperatives. South Africa faces the challenge of climate change as a developing country, with overriding priorities to eliminate poverty and eradicate inequality. Eliminating poverty and eradicating inequality requires addressing major challenges in creating decent employment, which in turn requires sustainable economic development, improving basic education, health and social welfare and many other basic needs such as access to food, shelter and modern energy services."


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"Costs functions associated with high impact climate events (wildfires, storms, droughts and floods), including both direct and downstream costs were calculated. These adaptation needs were estimated based on the cost functions for the present- day climate and for the near future under the low mitigation scenarios. The costs estimated are in terms of the 10th, 50th and 90th percentiles covering uncertainties with a multi-model ensemble . Sectors covered are Water, Agriculture, Forestry, Settlements, Biodiversity, Disaster Risk Reduction."


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"Creating the right financial environment through aligning fiscal strategy with sustainable growth The need for investment at scale and the change in purchasing choices of businesses and citizens over the coming years makes the fiscal regime of a country a determining factor in its ability to achieve the structural changes required by the joint objectives of achieving the Paris Agreement aims and eradicating poverty. The correct incentives will accelerate positive change, while misalignment can hold back action. Several considerations should inform fiscal adjustments over time."


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"Creation of policy package roadmaps across three phases The likelihood of policy action leading to long-term transformation results would require the application of new planning techniques. Pathway planning is an analytical tool that can inform national policy development over time towards objectives that sit beyond a typical policy horizon. Pathways visualize the whole timespan between the present and the time for which a target is set, seeking to establish what steps make sense now in the context of reaching the long-term goal."


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"Currently, South Africa\u2019s national inventory reports are produced using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and the 2013 IPCC Kyoto Protocol Supplement (for guidance on accounting for harvested wood products), and GWP-100 values from the IPCC\u2019s 2nd Assessment Report."


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"Damage costs associated with severe climate related events (wild fires, storms, droughts and floods), including both direct and downstream costs were estimated for the present-day climate and for the near future under low and moderate-high mitigation scenarios.  Emission scenarios considered are RCP 8.5 (low mitigation) and RCP (moderate-high mitigation). The cost estimates provided are in terms of the 10th and 90th percentiles of annual costs occurring within the periods of interest.  Annual costs were estimated for 2020-2030 and 2020-2050."


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"Decarbonisation of energy supply will largely be driven through the Integrated Energy Plan, the Integrated Resource Plan and the Industrial Biofuels Strategy, issued by the Department of Energy, the predecessor of this Department. Integrated Energy Plan Energy planning is guided by the Integrated Energy Plan (IEP). The White Paper on Energy Policy of the Republic of South Africa of 1998 identified the requirement for development of the IEP, with the National Energy\f  Act of 2008 further defining the objectives thereof."


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"Delivering on Sustainable Infrastructure for Better Development and Better Climate. Global Economy and Development at Brookings institution; The New Climate Economy; Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment at the London School of Economics. Washington, D.C. Bhorat, H. and Rooney, C., (2017). State of Manufacturing in South Africa. Development Policy Research Unit. Cape Town: University of Cape Town. Bischof-Niemz, T. & Creamer, T., (2019). South Africa s energy transition: a roadmap to a decarbonised. low-cost and job-rich future. First ed. New York, NY: Routledge."


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"Depending on the latest available science, the success of this mix of mitigation policies and measures, new accessible and affordable technology, increased capability and emerging mitigation opportunities the PPD trajectory range may also be adjusted, without compromising the overall ambition of South Africa s long-term contribution to the global mitigation effort. Scope and coverage Economy-wide, all sectors, six greenhouse gases (GHGs), with a material focus on three GHGs: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O)."


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"Develop and support a climate\fElement Undertaking for the Assumptions / Methodologies Adaptation investment vulnerable sectors and geographic areas for the period 2020 to 2030, and reporting in terms of the National Adaptation Plan with rolling five- year implementation periods change early warning and vulnerability network with the involvement of relevant stakeholders, e.g. SA Weather Services, SA Earth Observation Network, the downscaling modelling and adaptation academic community etc."


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"Develop pipeline of climate change adaptation activities for the period 2021 to 2030 to Support South Africa\u2019s Just Transition to a climate resilient economy and society. Element (d) of the Annex to decision  Implementation and support needs of, and provision of adaptation support to South Africa Goal 4: Access to funding for adaptation implementation through multilateral funding mechanisms The 2009 UNFCCC report estimates that developing countries such as South Africa will require between U$23-67 billion by 2030 to adapt to climate change."


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"Developing country Parties should continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances.\u201d) (e) How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement. (Article 4.6 states that \u201c6."


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"Development of the climate change planning tools and systems to guide and support national climate change adaptation across tiers of government through mainstreaming in growth and development strategies, Integrated Development Plans (IDP) and the development of provincial and local Adaption Plans; 2. Update of the country\u2019s Long-Term Adaption Scenarios; 3. Undertake Climate Change Needs and Response Assessments; 4. Operationalise the National Climate Risk & Vulnerability Assessment Framework (DEFF 5."


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"Draft Conservation Agriculture Policy of 2017. Pretoria: Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Available at:  2019]. DAFF, (2017c). Agroforestry Strategic Framework for South Africa.  Pretoria: Department of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries. Available at: ork%20Approved%20fourth%20Draft%20-%2009%20Feb%202017.pdf, [Accessed June 2019]. DEA and DST, (2015). Mitigation Technology Plan Report: Development of the climate change mitigation technology implementation plan for South Africa, Pretoria, South Africa: Department of Environmental Affairs and Department of Science and Technology. DEA, (2009). National Environmental Management: Waste Act (No. 59 of 2008)."


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"Draft Post-2015 National Energy Efficiency Strategy. Government Gazette, No. 40515. Department of Energy. Pretoria: Republic of South Africa. Available at:   content/uploads/2017/01/National-Energy-Efficiency-Strategy.pdf, [Accessed June 2019]. DoE, (2019a). The Independent Power Producers Procurement Programme: An Overview. 2018 Quarterly Report as at June 2019. Available at:   2c59e59ac9cd&fileName=20190821_IPP%20Office%20Q1_2019-20%20Overview.pdf.pdf, [Accessed October 2019]. DoE, (2019b). Draft IRP 2018 Update for NEDLAC Energy Task Team. Department of Energy. Pretoria: Republic of South Africa. Available at:   IRP2019-6-March-2019.pdf, [Accessed June 2019]. DoE, (2019c). Integrated Resource Plan (IRP2019). Government Gazette, No. 42784."


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"Driving innovation, research, and skills for future value capture Boosting innovation, research and skills is a crucial lever to increase South Africa\ufffds international competitiveness, and to ensure that higher-value economic activity spearheads future growth by becoming an ever-greater proportion of GDP over time. The transitions required to support low-carbon development present clear opportunities for the innovation, research, and skills agenda, particularly given that global compliance with Paris implies a large, ongoing investment over decades."


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"Elements Undertaking for the period Assumptions / Methodologies / Context Efforts Adaptation investment Element (b) of the Annex to decision  Impacts, risk and vulnerability. Develop an understanding of the impacts on South Africa of 1.5 and 2oC global warming and the underlying global emission pathways through geo-spatial mapping of the physical climate hazards, and adaptation needs in the context of strengthening the key sectors of the economy."


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"Elements Undertaking for the period Assumptions / Methodologies / Context Efforts Adaptation investment Element (e) of the Annex to decision  Implementation of adaptation action and plans including (ii) Adaptation efforts of developing countries for recognition. Goal 5: Quantification and acknowledgement of the national adaptation and resilience efforts. The adaptation efforts have been quantified using the core sub-programmes adaptation expenditure. The sub-programmes support the implementation of policy instruments, enhancement of adaptation governance and implementation of adaptation interventions."


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"Emissions covered by the carbon tax are those that need to be reported in terms of the Department of Environmental Affairs\ufffd Mandatory Reporting Regulations, although the tax is administered by the South African Revenue Services in the same way as other environmental levies.  The role of the carbon tax \ufffd Through passing of the Carbon Tax Act, the government is providing a strong signal of an intention to implement the \ufffdpolluter pays principle\ufffd. \ufffd At present, with the prescribed allowances, the tax rate is low."


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"Emissions will then plateau for up to ten years after the peak within the range with a lower limit of 398 Mt CO2-eq and upper limit of 614 Mt CO2-eq. From 2036 onwards, emissions will decline in absolute terms to a range with a lower limit of 212 Mt CO2-eq and an upper limit of 428 Mt CO2-eq by 2050."


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"Energy demand SA-LEDS supports the implementation of a selection of measures to reduce energy demand, or limit growth in energy demand, as the economy and population grows: \ufffd The National Energy Efficiency Strategy: In 2005, the Department of Energy launched the first National Energy Efficiency Strategy (NEES). Building on this document, the Department of Minerals and Energy is finalizing the post-2015 NEES, which outlines a set of goals for energy efficiency improvements across the economy to 2030."


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"Energy demand SA-LEDS supports the implementation of a selection of measures to reduce energy demand, or limit growth in energy demand, as the economy and population grows: \ufffd The National Energy Efficiency Strategy; \ufffd Support for increased uptake of Solar Water Heaters; \ufffd The National Building Regulations and Buildings Standards Act; and \ufffd Promotion of cleaner mobility. These measures not only contribute to reductions in emissions associated with fossil fuels, but also to energy security and energy access."


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"Energy efficiency in South Africa \ufffd South Africa continues to support efficient energy utilisation, by setting of energy efficiency targets across the economy \ufffd Five yearly reviews provide the opportunity to ratchet up ambition to align with South Africa\ufffds contribution to global mitigation goals, and to extend the Strategy to 2050."


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"Energy supply Decarbonisation of energy supply will largely be driven through the: \ufffd Integrated Energy Plan, which analyses current energy supply and demand trends within the different sectors of the economy, across all energy carriers. It then uses this information along with assumptions\f  xi about future demand and technology evolution to project the country\ufffds future energy requirements under a variety of different scenarios, including those with emissions limits and carbon prices."


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"Enhancement of institutional arrangements laid out in the Climate Change Bill for adaptation, including the establishment of the Presidential Climate Commission and Inter- Ministerial Committee on Climate Change by 2. Provincial Forum on Climate Change and Municipal Forums on Climate Change to be completed in 2025. 3. Implementation of the provisions of the Climate Change Bill, effective operationalization of climate change adaptation governance frameworks and systems by 2025. USD13 million to build evidence-based support for policy implementation for the period 2021 to 2030."


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"Enhancing institutional capabilities and arrangements for the transition Regardless of the details of the path followed towards a carbon-neutral world, in-depth sectorial transformation plans will need to be developed over the coming years, with significant public and private sector collaboration, to lay out the transformation pathways which will lead South Africa to achieve its goals. Such planning requires political will, coordination, a participatory process, and specific analytical resources and expertise."


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"Enhancing the vision for development The SA-LEDS vision described in Section 3 is guided by the peak-plateau-decline trajectory as defined in the NCCRP and the NDC. The trajectory represents the contribution South Africa commits to the global response to climate change at this time, aligned with its vision of development."


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"Enough is known about the direction of travel required in all sectors to identify some key components of such trajectories in parallel to the process of agreeing the long-term targets. Specialist analytical work should feed into the transformation pathways across all sectors of activity, so the credible projections of national emissions can be made, and to allow clear visibility of the trade-offs which will emerge. Once the technology scenario options have been outlined, specific policies must be considered to guide the transformation."


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"Ensuring that no one is left behind as we move from a high GHG emission, low- employment energy development pathway to a low emission, climate-resilient and job-rich pathway, is central to our national work on development and climate change. 3. South,Africa\u2019s,first,Adaptation,Communication,,serving,as,the, Adaptation,component,of,the,NDC, South Africa submits its first adaptation communication as a component of its Nationally Determined Contribution (A-NDC) in line with the Paris Agreement in Article 7, paragraph 11."


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"Equity does not only relate to Parties\u2019 respective mitigation actions, as those least responsible for the problem of global climate change, namely poor countries and communities, are\f  most vulnerable to its impacts. The Paris Agreement recognises \u201cthat the current need for adaptation is significant and that greater levels of mitigation can reduce the need for additional adaptation efforts, and that greater adaptation needs can involve greater adaptation costs\u201d (Article 7.4)."


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"Equity in adaptation therefore requires a strong multilateral response in the context of the UNFCCC and its Paris Agreement, including the provision of support to developing countries for adaptation and the detailed evaluation of progress against the global goal for adaptation in the global stocktake and in the work of relevant constituted bodies under the UNFCCC and its Paris Agreement Fairness and adequacy of the South African NDC should therefore be looked at holistically, where the contributions by the country are not only looked at from an emissions reduction perspective but also an adaptation perspective. 7."


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"Equity in adaptation, therefore, requires a strong multilateral response in the context of the UNFCCC and its Paris Agreement, including the provision of support to developing countries for adaptation and the detailed evaluation of progress against the global goal for adaptation in the global stocktake and in the work of relevant constituted bodies under the UNFCCC and its Paris Agreement. \f  4."


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"Equity relates to adaptation, mitigation and all forms of investment and support.  Equity does not only relate to Parties\u2019 respective mitigation actions, as those least responsible for the problem of global climate change, namely poor countries and communities,  are most vulnerable to its impacts. Those countries therefore need to take urgent and costly adaptation actions. If insufficient mitigation is implemented globally, and average global temperatures exceed 2 \u00b0C, even more adaptation will be required, effectively shifting the burden of climate action onto developing countries."


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"Eskom also has an active research programme which looks at renewable energy development amongst topics. Eskom\ufffds efforts in this regard have mainly been centred on the development of wind energy, pumped storage and PV projects. The Ingula Pumped Storage Scheme is in commercial operation with four 333 MW generators. Furthermore, Eskom\ufffds Sere Wind Farm became fully commercially operational in 2015, with a capacity of 100 MW (DoE, 2019b)."


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"Estimates of national mitigation potential have been derived from the sectoral MACCs and ranked in terms of level of implementability at national level for each of the technologies. \ufffd The Pathways study to explore the impact of alternative economic growth trajectories on the country\ufffds emissions trajectory, looking at the implementation of structural changes rather than the implementation of purely technical interventions. This study, which also used the single national emissions model, had not been released at the time of writing of this document."


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"Even without considering the contribution of domestic private sector financing for climate change-related activities, which is likely to be significant given recent investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency in South Africa, it is clear that international support contributes a relatively small proportion of climate finance being utilised in South Africa."


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"Examples of activities that might be taken during the three phases of implementation of the transition are shown in Table 5. All along the way provision needs to be made for regular review of the Strategy and the implementation plan, and M&E of implementation."


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"Explicitly linking climate finance requirements with mitigation and adaptation needs could also create the opportunity to use climate finance to support technology development and transfer. Both the Green Climate Fund and the Global Environment Facility, for example, provide support for the development of Technology Needs Assessments and/or consider the results of these assessments in their lending programmes (Resende, 2019; Kaung-Idba, 2019)."


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"FOLU) WASTE Energy industries 48% Manufacturing Industires and Other sectors 9% Fugitive emissions from fuels 5% ENERGY\f  Figure 4: Total gross national GHG emissions by economic sector The carbon intensity of the economy (tonnes CO2-eq per R1,000) and the energy intensity of the economy (tonnes oil equivalent (toe) of energy per R1,000) have decreased between 2000 and 2015, by 18.7% and 12.4% respectively."


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"Figure 2: Key contributors to GDP Source: (Stats-SA, 2017a) Energy supply In 2016, the country\ufffds total primary energy supply was approximately 5,880 Petajoules (PJ), with fossil-fuels (coal, crude oil petroleum products and natural gas) supplying about 88% of the energy needs (IEA Bioenergy, 2018). According to the 2018 Energy Sustainability Index, developed by the World Energy Council, South Africa is ranked\f  85th on the Energy Sustainability Index out of 125 countries."


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"Figure 6: Sectoral energy demand Source: DoE, 2016a Industry Mining Agriculture Commerce Residential Transport\f  The Role of the Integrated Energy Plan \ufffd The IEP provides the overall future direction for the energy mix in South Africa, and thus represents a key instrument for driving the move to a low carbon future. \ufffd The IEP update with a clear trajectory for the energy sector is critical to guiding overall energy planning for the country."


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"Figure 8: Domestic climate finance (2015 - 2017) Source: DEA (2019c)  12South Africa\ufffds 3rd Biennial Update Report (BUR-3) mentions that lags in reporting may lead to an underestimate of 2017 values. Climate finance information for the periods 2000-2010 and 2010-2014 can be found in BUR-1 and BUR-2."


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"Finance is a critical driver of the low carbon transition, and without targeting finance effectively, climate goals will not be achieved. Equally important, it is now well understood that neglecting to asses and price the risks inherent in climate change creates systemic risk within financial systems (see, for example, TCFD (2017), Vermeulen et al (2018), Poloz et al (2019), Giuzio et al (2019))."


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"For example, if a developing country were to commit to the target of 45% emissions reduction in double the time recommended by the IPCC (which could be consistent with the IPCC global scenario provided developed countries acted much earlier), and at the same time maintained a dynamic economic growth to reduce poverty, that country\ufffds emissions intensity per unit of GDP by the year 2042 would need to be under a quarter of its present value."


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"For the case of medium-high mitigation these values are projected to be a 2% decrease in the cost of median-years, but with a similar increase of 119% in terms of the costs of extreme years.  South Africa has already made significant investments in mitigation. As part of a Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REI4P) has approved 79 renewable energy IPP projects, total 5 243MW, with private investment totalling ZAR 192 billion (approx. US$ 16 billion). Another 6300 MW are under consideration."


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"For the first time, a provision for embedded generation is included in the IRP. Embedded Generation (also referred to as distributed generation) refers to electricity generation installations of capacities of between 1MW and 10MW that are connected to the national grid. Embedded generation using renewable technologies is attracting substantial investment and funding in both the private and public sector (with the latter typically being at sub- national government level), and is set to grow exponentially."


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"Fossil fuel participation in power generation, where still present, will be only a minor share of the total, and will continue to decline. Urban infrastructure and planning will have reduced the demand for passenger kilometers travelled per person for a broad range of activities, and these will be provided far more through shared platforms than today (be these traditional public transport, or new asset types serving through innovative business models)."


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"From these, policy makers must establish what are the medium and short-term requirements needed to ensure the achievement of the long-term goals, to inform actions taken on a much shorter timeframe so they can help rather than hinder success and avoid long- term lock-in to emissions intensive options. Transformation pathways, which show how changes must occur over time, must be developed, linking the desired end-state with the current economic and technological structures."


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"Fugitive emissions from fuels contributed another 5% to overall emissions in 2015. Agriculture, Industrial Processes and Product Use and Waste contributed 9.0%, 7.7% and 3.6% to gross national GHG emissions in 2015 respectively. \f  Figure 3: Contribution of main emission categories and energy emission categories to national gross greenhouse gas emissions If national emissions are expressed in terms of economic sectors rather than emission categories (see Figure 4), electricity generation contributes 42% of gross national emissions."


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"Further, urban expansion and mining reduces above and below ground carbon, as does degradation, which increases soil erosion. In terms of total carbon sequestration, despite the small overall land coverage by forests, over 90% of CO2 absorbed in 2015 was attributed to forest land, with the remainder being absorbed by grassland and savannah. Mitigation actions identified in the AFOLU sector include Policies and Measures developed by line departments including the Department of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF)9."


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"Furthermore, Diffenbaugh and Burke (2019) find that the 1\u00b0C increase in global temperatures over the last century has already reduced the size of the South African economy by between 10 and 20%.11 Internationally, it is estimated that an additional US$ 13.5 trillion (in 2014 dollars) is required to remain below two degrees of climate change from 2015 to 2030 (Meltzer, 2016; Bhattacharya et al, 2016)."


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"Furthermore, as illustrated by the UK\ufffds Green Finance Strategy, it is also important that all local financial regulators recognise climate-related financial factors as part of their mandate and actively monitor climate-related risk and exposure within the South African financial sector. During the transition it is critical that the financial sector enables the redirection of funds from the high-carbon activities that are no longer consistent with a just, sustainable and prosperous low carbon economy to the new industries and activities that will underpin it."


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"Furthermore, by providing entities with an understanding of how budgets are likely to be assigned in future phases to keep overall  2 Emissions savings achieved through actions in the waste sector will not all be reflected in that sector\ufffds inventory, however they may contribute indirectly to national emissions savings.\f  xiv national emissions within the bounds of the national emissions trajectory, which will continue to be revised downward in keeping with the Paris Agreement, they are sensitised to how mitigation requirements may change in the future."


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"Furthermore, by providing entities with an understanding of how the budgets are likely to be assigned in future phases to keep overall national emissions within the bounds of the national emissions trajectory, which will continue to be revised downward in keeping with the Paris Agreement, they are sensitised to how mitigation requirements may change in the future. The system thereby provides an opportunity for entities to plan ahead."


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"Furthermore, in order to best contribute to the strategy development process, it should seek to identify financing pathways commensurate with technology transformation pathways and economic development pathways required by the transformation to a low-emissions economy (see remarks on planning for implementation contained in Section 6). South Africa has a framework for tracking climate finance in place, which is being operationalised as part of the national integrated climate change monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system."


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"Furthermore, there is increasing regional coordination and horizontal integration of climate change responses as municipalities are sharing practice and learning with one another, such as through the Kwazulu-Natal Climate Change Compact. Some of South Africa\ufffds metros are pioneering Net Zero Carbon Building policy and regulations. This requires that buildings exceed the country\ufffds energy efficiency and energy consumption standards, and that their remaining energy demand is met by renewable energy."


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"Furthermore, this update to the South African A-NDC outlines goals that are aligned to Elements A-D as contained in the Annex to decision 9/CMA.1. As a developing country, the A-NDC further presents information in respect of adaptation efforts for recognition as provided for in Element E (ii) of decision 9/CMA.1."


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"Future assessments will take into account the shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) scenarios in the projection of the impacts of local impacts of the 1.5 and 2oC global warming levels. An adaptation needs costing methodology is described in the technical document (CSIR 2020). The methodology used in determining adaptation needs is based on the projection of physical climate hazards include extreme events (wildfires, storms, droughts and floods)."


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"Future work needs to ensure that data is collected in a coherent, consistent and transparent manner, and that the \ufffdright\ufffd data to support decision making and planning is collected \ufffd including towards informing future updates of this strategy. CONCLUDING REMARKS: PLANNING FOR IMPLEMENTATION This strategy sets out a direction of travel for South Africa as we refine our low carbon emission development pathway to meet our commitments to the international community and address our developmental agenda/priorities and needs."


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"Fynbos and the Indian coastal belt experienced high biodiversity losses relative to their sizes. About 3 and 4.5 per cent of habitat was lost between 1990 and 2018 in the fynbos and the Indian coastal belt biomes respectively, whilst a higher risk of biodiversity loss is projected in the Savanna and Grasslands. Some of this biodiversity loss is occurring in the vicinity of protected areas."


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"GHG EMISSIONS MITIGATION MEASURES The strategy centres on measures currently being implemented by government to address mitigation across the four key sectors of the economy, namely energy, industry, AFOLU and waste. It also presents planned cross- sectoral measures that will contribute to driving mitigation action. As indicated previously, many of the measures address only the short term, and are not considered transformational. South Africa puts these forward as a starting point from which to ratchet up our future ambition towards more integrated, transformational strategy."


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"GHG EMISSIONS MITIGATION MEASURES This section describes measures currently being implemented by government to address GHG emissions mitigation across the four key sectors of the economy, namely energy (supply and demand), industry, AFOLU and waste. It also presents further planned cross-sectoral measures that will contribute to driving mitigation action. It is recognised that many of the measures presented here address only the short term, and are not considered to be transformational."


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"GHG National Inventory Report South Africa 2000 \ufffd 2015. Pretoria: Department of Environmental Affairs. Available at:   Inventory-Report-SouthAfrica-2000-2015.pdf, [Accessed June 2019]. DEA, (2019b). Draft National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy. Government Gazette, No.42446. Pretoria: Department of Environmental Affairs. Available at:  DEA, (2019c). South Africa\ufffds 3rd Biennial Update Report to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Pretoria: Department of Environmental Affairs. Available at: [Accessed June 2019]. Diffenbaugh, N.S. and Burke, M., (2019). Global warming has increased global economic inequality."


id: e579ba430ca28a57a5b0a6f6cdb378ba
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"GHG emission reduction occurs by reducing fuel consumption of farm vehicles, increasing yields and reduced fertiliser use. Current CA adoption by grain growers is between 20 and 30% at a national scale. Both the establishment of plantations and agroforestry could lead to the sequestration of atmospheric carbon in soils and biomass."


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"Generally, South Africa needs time for development, which is necessary to eliminate poverty, reduce inequality, increase employment and promote inclusive economic growth, while simultaneously seeking to contribute to mitigation and assist our vulnerable communities in adapting to climate impacts. Some specific finance and investment requirements for both adaptation and mitigation have been initially quantified above. Uncertainties Uncertainty should be noted in two respects. Firstly, the greater uncertainty in AFOLU emissions (relative to other sectors) has been noted above."


id: d18e88df8322ddf9f762ea3067985042
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"Given that poor countries and communities have the least responsibility for the challenge of global climate change but are the most vulnerable to its impacts, adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change is also a global responsibility and concern.  The nature of the climate change challenge is one characterised by the overuse of a global commons in an unequal world."


id: c74fd7b772919bd954749fa883697c7e
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"Global Climate Finance: An updated View 2018. Climate Policy Initiative. Available at:   2018/, [Accessed June 2019]. Oxfam, (2018). Climate Finance Shadow Report 2018. Oxford: Oxfam GB. Available at: en.pdf, [Accessed June 2019]. Poloz, S.S., Wilkins, C.A., Lane, T., Schembri, L.L., Patterson, L., Beaudry, P., (2019). Financial System Review Summary \ufffd 2019. Available at:   [Accessed June 2019]. PWC, (2019). Africa Capital Markets Watch - March 2019. Available at: Resende, E., (2019). The GCF and its TNA related activities."


id: bc6beb22fa1a06b38d3f3a18bd39b116
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"Good progress has been made in implementing climate- compatible sectoral plans, such as the integrated energy and electricity plans (IEP and IRP), industrial policy action plans (IPAP) and the new growth path (NGP).  The full implementation of these policies and plans will bend the curve of South Africa\u2019s GHG emissions towards a peak, plateau and decline trajectory range."


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"Government Gazette, No. 32000. Pretoria: Republic of South Africa. Available at:\f   2019]. DEA, (2011). National Climate Change Response White Paper. Pretoria: Department of Environmental Affairs. Available at:  f, [Accessed June 2019]. DEA, (2012). National Waste Management Strategy. Government Gazette, No. 35306. Pretoria: Republic of South Africa. Available at:  June 2019]. DEA, (2013). Long-Term Adaptation Scenarios Phase One \ufffd Technical Report. Pretoria: Department of Environmental Affairs. DEA, (2015). South Africa\ufffds Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)."


id: fb70f2983028626946d003dc3539e926
created_at: 2023-10-04 15:13:27
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"Greenhouse gas emissions profile The latest National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report (2015) shows that South Africa\ufffds total gross GHG emissions (excluding forestry and other land use) increased by 23% from 439 Mt CO2-eq in 2000 to 541 Mt CO2- eq in 2015 (DEA, 2019a). Forestry and land use are a CO2 sink and reduced gross emissions by 5% in 2015. South Africa\ufffds net GHG emissions are 512 Mt CO2-eq."


id: 7113effa555e3869b99fc2f6da119c46
created_at: 2023-10-04 15:13:27
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"Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Japan: Institute for Global Environmental Strategies. Available at:   [Accessed June 2019]. IPCC, (2014). Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, R.K. Pachauri and L.A. Meyer (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. IPCC, (2018). Summary for Policymakers. In: Global Warming of 1.5\u00b0C."


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"How the NDC relates to fairness, science, ambition, progression and other elements of the Paris Agreement should be considered holistically. Here, information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of fairness and ambition is provided. South Africa is strongly of the view that equity should be a primary consideration when considering countries\u2019 fair shares of remaining global emissions space. Analysis of relative fair shares for South Africa in relation to mitigation was reviewed in the process of updating the NDC (UCT 2021a)."


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"How the Party considers that its intended nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious, in light of its national circumstances, and how it contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2 A relative fair share of aggregate commitments required to limit temperature increase to well below 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels requires understanding of what others will do, and an equitable effort- sharing paradigm, such as the proposal for the Paris agreement to elaborate an equity reference framework."


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"How the Party considers that its nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances:  (a) How the Party considers that its nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances; The updated NDC has outlined how SA considers its contribution to be fair and ambitious, in sections on adaptation, mitigation and support, as well as a dedicated section on equitable access to sustainable development, below."


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"How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2:  (a) How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2; (Article 2 of the UNFCCC states that \u201cThe ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Conference of the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system."


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"However, Section 1 highlighted that a broad range of structural changes will be necessary across economic sectors, in order to ensure the global economy achieves carbon neutrality within the second half of the century. Changes will be required in terms of service demand, technology fleet, infrastructure, operating practice, and energy sources, for all sectors of activity. Ensuring South Africa plays its role in the achievement of the Paris Agreement is the overarching purpose of this strategy."


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"However, a broad range of structural changes will be necessary, in order to ensure the global economy achieves carbon neutrality within the second half of the century. Changes will be required in terms of service demand, technology fleet, infrastructure, operating practice, and energy sources, for all sectors of activity."


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"However, the ratcheting of this policy intervention will be achieved through reducing the allowances and increasing the tax rate. \ufffd A higher rate of tax on emissions exceeding the carbon budgets, as is being proposed once the carbon budgets are mandatory, will further drive mitigation action. Sectoral Emissions Targets (SETs) South Africa\ufffds national emissions trajectory will be translated into Sectoral Emission Targets or SETs, which are quantitative greenhouse gas emission targets allocated to an emitting sector or sub-sector, over a defined time period."


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"Hybrid electric vehicles: 20% by 2030 - US$488 billion These costs are derived from energy systems and economic modelling. Further work is needed to prepare detailed business plans for finance and investment in mitigation. These numbers are presented for information to clarify the order of magnitude of mitigation finance and investment requirements."


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"ICTU has been provided in Table 3 below. Each row in the table corresponds to a provision / sub- provision of Annex 1 to decision 4/CMA.1. \u201cNot applicable\u201d has been entered against sub-provisions which do not apply to the South African NDC, with an explanation provided as to why these do not apply."


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"If current trends continue, global average temperatures are likely to increase by at least 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels between 2030 and 2052. The impacts associated with such temperature increases are significant and far- reaching; threatening people and ecosystems. The impacts, which become more severe the greater the temperature increase, include sea level rise as a result of melting polar ice and glaciers, increases in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, changing ecosystems and desertification, ocean acidification, and loss of biodiversity."


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"If data becomes available, inclusion of additional gases will be considered for the 2026-2030 implementation period, or for the next NDC. The land sector is included in the NDC, excluding emissions from natural disturbances. The NIR takes a land-based approach."


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"If we\f  consider power generation plants which consume coal, many of these can operate 30 or 40 years after commissioning, and while an internal combustion engine vehicle lifetime may extend to 15 years in the industrialized world, vehicles of 25 years of age or more can be regularly seen on the streets of Africa. Investments in city and transport infrastructure are also built with the expectation they should last for over 30 years."


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"Implementing activities in accordance with the prioritisation afforded by the hierarchy potentially contributes to a reduction in emissions from material life cycles10 as follows: \ufffd Avoidance and reduction of waste avoids emissions with production and transport of the waste that would have been ultimately sent to landfill;  10 Emissions savings achieved through actions in the waste sector will not all be reflected in that sector\ufffds inventory, however they may contribute indirectly to national emissions savings."


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"Implementing the NDC will require the implementation of South Africa\u2019s Integrated Resource Plan (most recently finalised in 2019), which contemplates a massive investment in renewable energy over the next decade. This will also result in a number of co-benefits, such as reduced air pollution in the key pollution hot spots of the country, with health co-benefits; lower water use in a water-scarce country; and rapidly adding additional electricity generation capacity to the South African electricity system, which is currently capacity constrained."


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"In 2018 the Green Transport Strategy (GTS) to 2050 was launched. The GTS provides the strategic direction for the transport sector regarding the reduction of GHG emissions, the contribution of transport to the green economy and the promotion of sustainable mobility."


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"In 2025, South Africa\u2019s annual GHG emissions will be in a range from 398-510 Mt CO2- eq. In 2030, South Africa\u2019s annual GHG emissions will be in a range from 350-420 Mt CO2-eq. Note that \u201cGHG emissions\u201d are defined as total net GHG emissions as specified in the national inventory report for 2030, including all sectors, and excluding emissions from natural disturbances in the land sector."


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"In Chapter 3, economic development and the key drivers of change are discussed \ufffd one of which relates to the need for a just transition to a low carbon economy. Chapter 4 focuses on infrastructure, including energy infrastructure, noting the need for diversification of energy supply and for cleaner coal technologies (South African Government, 2012). The NDP outlines a set of goals and actions to meet the country\ufffds environmental sustainability and resilience needs."


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"In accounting for NDC targets, South Africa will use an inventory-based approach for all sectors, which is described in more detail in the \u2018information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding\u2019 (contained in Table 3 below)."


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"In addition to implementation of emissions reductions in the 2020s pursuant to the updated NDC target ranges contained in Table 2 above, support will also be required for longer term decarbonization, which will require investments in the 2020s in infrastructure, technology development and capacity-building. The projected costs of adaptation over the 2021-2030 period are detailed in the adaptation communication above, and include the costs of adaptation measures themselves, as well as the costs of building the relevant human and institutional capacity."


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"In addition to supporting climate change planning by the government, it will reassure the providers of finance that it is being effectively deployed. It will also serve to illustrate the positive impact that climate finance can have in South Africa. Climate finance opportunities South Africa\ufffds climate finance strategy will seek to quantify the financing requirements and identify areas where climate finance should be targeted."


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"In addition to these, we update to indicate the need for support in the form of concessional finance for low carbon projects; debt restructuring; support by the international climate and development and finance community for non-fossil-fuel development in Mpumalanga and elsewhere, and infrastructure to support energy efficiency, transmission and green hydrogen in support of electric vehicles, and public transport. South Africa will seek to develop small, medium and micro-enterprises, including energy service companies, to implement innovative technologies and create sustainable employment."


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"In addition, South Africa is presently facing acute energy challenges that hamper economic development. As a result of the historical development pathway of its energy sector, South Africa is currently heavily dependent on coal, with a fleet of old and inefficient coal-fired power plants that are nearing, but not yet at, the end of their design life- cycles as well as being reliant on a significant proportion of its liquid fuels being generated from coal."


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"In addition, South Africa will face significantly higher costs as a result of climate impacts which cannot be avoided during this period, and further work is underway to accurately quantify the costs. Support required for implementation includes the building of institutional and human capacity. Capacity-building is a continuous activity and initially focusing on the period of implementation \u2013 in our case, 2021-2025 and 2026-2030."


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"In addition, programmes to increase efficiency and reduce emissions intensity across the economy are being rolled out.  South Africa is developing a National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy and Plan to be integrated into all relevant sector plans, and upon which its UNFCCC National Adaptation Plan (NAP) will be based."


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"In communicating its second NDC in 2025, SA will consider whether the level of ambition for 2030 can be increased further, in the light of national circumstances, technology developments, and the availability of international support."


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"In following the guidelines of decision 9/CMA.1 on further guidance in relation to adaptation communications, South Africa emphasizes the relevance of information contained in this A-NDC as an input to the global stocktake outlined in paragraphs 23(b) and 36(c) of decision 19/CMA.1. The adoption of the National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NCCAS) in 2020 by the South African government is a milestone responding to this challenge, in order to inform climate change adaptation planning in the country (DEFF 2020a)."


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"In order to help ensure that the Parties\ufffd national contributions can jointly achieve the collective goal, the Article further states that \ufffdParties should strive to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies, mindful of Article 2 taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities\f  and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances\ufffd. This document has been prepared in response to that Article."


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"In our first NDC, we\f  Provisions and sub-provisions of Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1 Information provided in respect of the updated South African NDC referred to findings from the IPCC\u2019s 5th Assessment Report on global temperature limits. Since then, the IPCC\u2019s Special Report on 1.5\u00b0C has made clear the small remaining future global carbon budget, even smaller than for 2\u00b0C."


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"In recognition of this growth potential, a provision for 4,000 MW of other generation by 2030 is made, which includes embedded generation as well as co-generation, biomass and landfill gas generation. Government, through the National Energy Regulator of South Africa (NERSA) has been in the process of finalising the regulations governing embedded generation for an extended period, an activity which requires urgent resolution."


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"In recommitting ourselves to the multi-lateral rules based system, we highlight the importance of ensuring that \u201cfood production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.\u201d We also reaffirm that the achievement of the objective of the Convention must be guided by its principles, as stated in the preamble of the Paris Agreement. Parties to the Paris Agreement are Parties to the Convention."


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"In summary, fiscal strategy over time must reconsider the balance of taxation, planning for falling sales of fossil fuels and seeking to reduce negative externalities, while incentives will focus on both the emissions implications of investments, favoring the route to net zero, and stimulating investments which take advantage of the opportunities created by this transition, both in the short term (such as business creation) and in the medium to long term, (such as by favoring skills development, innovation, and research)."


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"In support of the strategy, the Regulations Regarding the Mandatory Blending of Biofuels with Petrol and Diesel were published in the Government Gazette in August 2012. The Regulations describe the eligibility and process for purchasing biofuels for blending and specify the type of records that need to be kept. The Regulations also specify that (i) the minimum concentration to be allowed for biodiesel blending is 5% by volume; and (ii) the permitted range for bio-ethanol blending is between 2 and 10% by volume."


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"In terms of the Act, provincial and district municipality intergovernmental forums will be required to serve as Provincial Forums on Climate Change. The Forums will be responsible for coordinating climate change response actions and reporting in their jurisdictions. Furthermore, provinces and district and metropolitan municipalities are required to prepare climate change needs and response assessments (which are updated every five years), and thereafter develop and implement a climate change response implementation plan, which also requires five yearly updates."


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"In terms of the draft Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan, for mitigation in the agricultural sector it is proposed that a strategic and integrated approach is taken that addresses sustainable agriculture more broadly and \ufffdto build synergies and avoid conflicts between climate change mitigation and other policy objectives, and to avoid offsetting mitigation efforts through intensification of production or land use change.\ufffd In the forestry sector, there is a specific objective to reduce GHG emissions through afforesting 100,000 hectares of land in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal as well as strengthening and expanding current initiatives including forest rehabilitation, working for woodlands and the Subtropical Thicket Ecosystem Project (STEP)."


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"In the Paris Agreement, Parties collectively agree to limit \ufffdthe increase in the global average temperature to well below 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5\u00b0C above pre- industrial levels\ufffd."


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"In the absence of a multi-laterally agreed equity reference framework, South African experts, applying Convention principles of responsibility, capability and access to equitable sustainable development, determined a carbon budget that is larger than the PPD trajectory range outlined in this INDC. South Africa has used this evidence base to evaluate whether its INDC is a relative fair effort. In the context of this objective assessment of South Africa is of the view that its contribution is both fair and ambitious."


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"In the absence of an agreed quantitative articulation of the vision, the national GHG emissions trajectory, as reflected in the National Climate Change Response Policy (NCCRP) and the NDP, is used as the benchmark against which the performance of SA-LEDS will be measured."


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"In the calculation of this number one person year is equivalent to 230 person days of work.\f  Development Bank of Southern Africa (DBSA), and the Energy Efficiency and Demand-side Management Fund managed by the Department of Energy. The REIPPPP is also an example of using green public procurement to raise climate finance. This is an approach that is also being considered in other countries (see, for example, the UK Government\ufffds Green Finance Strategy (HM Government, 2019)) and could be expanded in South Africa."


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"In the development of this vision, South Africa will give due consideration to the IPCC Special Report on 1.5\u00b0C, which represents the latest available science regarding this goal. This report sheds new light on the global rate of emissions reductions required to keep warming to 1.5\u00b0C with no or low overshoot."


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"In the first Biennial Transparency Report, we will specify indicators consistent with the modalities, procedures and guidelines (MPGs) for reporting on the implementation and achievement of our NDC (UNFCCC 2018b) and account for the NDC, including in reporting tables once those are agreed in on-going negotiations. South Africa will continue to pursue domestic mitigation measures to achieve its NDCs (see also section 2 above). This update to South Africa\u2019s first NDC is consistent with provisions of the Paris Agreement and associated decisions."


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"In the first stage, the in- depth plans and changes which will be required in order for the transformation to take place will be identified, and the most pressing lock-in threats avoided. The second is the inflection stage (beginning in parallel with the first stage where appropriate) in which climate policies become an ongoing consideration in an ever-larger number of decisions, changing the character of investments and policy decisions to leave behind development models which imply GHG emissions."


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"In this context, South Africa\u2019s INDC assumes the finalisation of an ambitious, fair, effective and binding multilateral agreement under the UNFCCC at COP 21 in Paris that further elaborates these commitments.  PPD trajectory range: South Africa\u2019s NCCRP \u201cdetails the \u2018peak, plateau and decline trajectory\u2019 used as the initial benchmark against which the efficacy of mitigation actions will be measured\u201d. This is the PPD trajectory range in the INDC. Values for key years are specified in the NCCRP."


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"In this manner, a rigorous pathway analysis towards a long-term target can produce a number of concrete actions which must be carried out by a certain time, to enable other actions. It can be helpful to structure the time interval into three parts: short, medium and long-term, organising and communicating such actions on a three-stage timeline."


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"In unmitigated greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios, warming of up to 5 to 8\u00b0C is projected over the interior of the country by the end of this century. Under a range of warming scenarios, drier conditions will be experienced in the west and south of the country and wetter conditions in the east. Rainfall patterns will become more variable and unpredictable. These changes will impact on water resources and food production, and increase the vulnerability of impoverished communities, amongst others."


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"Indeed, the search for immediate emissions reductions in the short-term can often lead to investments in technologies or business models which, while emitting less than traditional options, are not on track to drive the large reductions demanded by the long-term transformation. Avoiding decisions which will lead to emissions lock-in is thus a core priority of the \ufffdStarting Right\ufffd stage. \ufffdTurning the Corner\ufffd would typically take five to seven years."


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"Industrial and commercial energy use will incentivise resource efficiency at every turn, with service fulfilment models and product specification, design, and production processes all re-engineered to practically eliminate emissions. Methodological elements for developing LEDS The broad scope of change required to achieve the Paris Agreement presents several important planning challenges and opportunities."


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"Industry Brief - Financing Rooftop Solar PV, Cape Town, South Africa: GreenCape.\f  Hawarden, H., (undated). SA\ufffds Small Renewable Energy Projects Receive Investment Boost From First Fund. Available at:   first-fund, [Accessed June 2019]. HM Government, (2019). Green Finance Strategy: Transforming Finance for a Greener Future. Available at:  IEA Bioenergy, (2018). Bioenergy policies and status of implementation: South Africa \ufffd 2018 Update. Available [Accessed June 2019]. IMF, World Economic Outlook Database, April 2019. Available at: PIPCH&grp=0&a=, [Accessed June 2019]. IPCC, (2006)."


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"Industry Two sets of policies that directly and indirectly support emissions reductions in the industrial sector are identified, beyond those that target energy efficiency. The Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP), the implementation plan for the National Industrial Policy Framework, is revised at various intervals. The most recent revision, which covers the period 2018/19 to 2020/21, provides updates on key focus areas within the industrial sector, one of which is green industry investment."


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"Industry accounts for 27% of national emissions, with approximately a third of industry emissions associated with process emissions and the other two thirds are as a result of energy use. Emissions from transport and agriculture contribute 10% each, with the residential, commercial and waste sectors making up the remainder. Figure 4 also shows that 85% of greenhouse gas emissions in 2015 are in the form of CO2. Methane (CH4) contributes 9%, with over half of these emissions being from agriculture. IPPU AFOLU (excl."


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"Inefficient fossil fuel subsidies act as a negative fuel tax or work as a negative price on carbon, and hence their phase-out entails removing market distortions which would result in greater efficiencies in the economy, including restructuring taxes to reflect their environmental impacts. An economy-wide carbon tax has been implemented from 1 June 2019 (as described above) and this provides a price signal to nudge the economy towards low carbon development."


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"Integrated Resource Plan The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) guides the evolution of the South African electricity supply sector, in that it identifies the preferred electricity generation technologies to be built to meet projected electricity demand. It thus provides a mechanism for Government to drive the diversification of the country\ufffds electricity generation mix and promote the use of renewable energy and other low-carbon technologies. The 2019 IRP represents South Africa\ufffds current policy position, an update on the 2010 IRP (DoE, 2019c)."


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"Introduction, By this communication, South Africa updates and enhances its nationally determined contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, meeting its obligation under Article 4.9 to communicate NDCs every five years, and responding to the requests in paragraphs 23 to 25 of decision 1/CP.21. South Africa\u2019s intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) (RSA 2015) was submitted on 25 September 2015 prior to COP 21, and became our first NDC (RSA 2016) on 1 November 2016, following our ratification of the Paris Agreement."


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"Investment in public transport infrastructure was US$ 0.5 billion in 2012, and is expected to continue growing at 5% per year. South Africa established a South African Green Fund with an allocated US$ 0.11 billion in the 2011 to 2013 budgets to support catalytic and demonstration green economy initiatives. Resources for the Fund will have to be increased in future to enable and support the scaling up of viable and successful initiatives, including contributions from domestic, private sector and international sources."


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"It also creates the opportunity to leverage its sophisticated and deep financial markets to serve as a gateway for climate finance to the rest of the continent, which, as mentioned earlier, is struggling to access its fair share of climate finance. Following the example of a country like the UK (see HM Government (2019)), South Africa should use its climate\f  finance strategy to support the local financial sector to develop a competitive advantage in accessing and channelling climate finance."


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"It also makes provision for the development of plans to phase down or phase out the use of synthetic greenhouse gases \ufffd in line with the Kigali Amendments to the Montreal Protocol.  Various other strategies, policies and sector plans have been developed for individual sectors of the economy, which will all contribute to driving emission reductions. These are detailed in later sections of this document to outline the set of discrete measures which serve as a starting point for implementation of the LEDS."


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"It is an injustice that with a relatively small share of historical cumulative emissions, our economy has been disproportionately negative affected by climate change. Poor communities have low capacity to adapt and thus suffer the most from impacts. Nevertheless, we have invested in adaptation, and thus made a fair contribution to the global effort (see section 3). South Africa expects that the global stock-take will take into account the adequacy and effectiveness of adaptation and the support provided for adaptation."


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"It is assumed that the agreement will enhance international and regional cooperation on adaptation that enables and supports Parties capability to increasingly integrate adaptation into their climate resilient sustainable development planning and implementation processes, as well as to support their climate risk management, emergency and recovery responses to unavoidable climate and weather related adverse impacts."


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"It is assumed that this agreement will attract the full participation of all Parties to the Convention and, consistent with scientific requirements in the short, medium and long term, deliver the necessary ambitious mitigation and adaptation commitments, enabled and supported by significant climate finance and investment, accessible and affordable technology and substantial capacity building commitments. South Africa expects the Agreement will include effective arrangements for transparency of action and support."


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"It is at this stage that multiple policies will need to work in concert for the new technological options to make economic sense for businesses and consumers. An overall understanding of the sectoral narratives of change and how they collectively feed into the national vision will be core to the success of this stage. \ufffdMassive rollout\ufffd is the final phase, in which low-emissions climate resilient options have become the new normal."


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"It is by leaving no-one behind that South Africa collectively will contribute to achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement. We urge all Parties to treat with the utmost seriousness the considerations of equity, sustainable development and poverty eradication. \f  5. Support)requirements)under)the)Convention)and)Paris)Agreement) Effective multilateral co-operation was identified by the IPCC\u2019s Special Report on 1.5\u00b0C as a key factor in achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement."


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"It is further assumed that all of these commitments will give effect to the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.  It is assumed that this agreement will provide the multilateral rule-based infrastructure, mechanisms and tools to enhance international and regional cooperation on mitigation. Further, that this cooperative effort enables and supports Parties\u2019 capability to transition to low carbon economies and societies in a manner that addresses the social, economic and environmental dimensions of their sustainable development."


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"It is helpful to present policies not as stand-alone actions but rather as parts of policy packages, combinations of measures which may include planning, regulatory, financial, and other instruments to collectively drive towards the desired outcome, providing capabilities and overcoming barriers to change. Complementarity and sequencing are both crucial to building effective policy packages. Proposed components of policy packages could include those that focus on planning; institutional / regulatory considerations; project implementation; financing; acceptance, skills and just transition; and avoiding lock-in."


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"It is helpful to present policies not as stand-alone actions but rather as parts of policy packages, that is to say, combinations of measures which may include planning, regulatory, financial, and other instruments to collectively drive towards the desired outcome, providing capabilities and overcoming barriers to change. Complementarity and sequencing are both crucial to building effective policy packages."


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"It is in that light that South Africa considers its investments in adaptation as a contribution to the global effort, which should be recognised as such. Further information is provided in the equity section of the INDC."


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"It is noted that, although included in the 2012 Strategy, WtE is no longer considered  to be a preferred technology option, but is rather recognised to be a last resort for managing wastes for which higher value cannot be recovered. Subsequent to the Waste Act and National Waste Management Strategy, twenty national waste management initiatives, with annual targets, have been established by the DEA through a process known as the Waste Phakisa."


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"It is recognized that detailed forecasting is unlikely to accurately predict the evolution of markets. However, \ufffdfailing to plan is planning to fail\ufffd, which is why systematic planning is recommended for all sectors. Common characteristics between scenarios that succeed and those that do not will help policymakers identify those conditions which must be met in order for the transition to succeed, aligned with Paris in a manner consistent with the latest science from the IPCC."


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"It then presents a base case and a number of scenarios4 which all provide an electricity generation supply mix which can meet future electricity demand at least cost, taking into account the need for ensuring security of supply."


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"Jointly, these initiatives aim to achieve landfill diversion of 20 million tonnes of waste per year (75% industrial and 50% municipal)."


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"Keeping SA-LEDS as a dynamic and flexible document is important to ensure that it keeps pace with domestic policy developments, research, development and innovation, and the declining costs of emissions mitigation technologies."


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"LTAS Long Term Adaptation Scenarios LTMS Long Term Mitigation Scenarios MACC Marginal Abatement Cost Curve M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MINMEC Ministers and Members of Executive Councils MINTECH Ministerial Technical Advisory Body MPA Mitigation Potential Analysis MRF Material Recovery Facility Mt Megatonne Megatonne Carbon Dioxide Equivalent MW Megawatt NCCC National Committee on Climate Change NCCRP National Climate Change Response Policy NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NDP National Development Plan NEES National Energy Efficiency Strategy NEM:WA National Environmental Management: Waste Act vi NERSA National Energy Regulator of South Africa NEVA National Employment Vulnerability Assessment NIPF National Industrial Policy Framework NPC National Planning Commission NTCSA National Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Assessment NWMS National Waste Management Strategy PAMs Policies and Measures PCCCC Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission PJ Petajoule PPD Peak, Plateau and Decline RE Renewable Energy REIPPPP Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme REDD Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation SACCS South African Centre for Capture and Storage SANS South African National Standard SA-LEDS South Africa Low-Emission Development Strategy SDG Sustainable Development Goal SET Sectoral Emissions Target SJRP Sector Jobs Resilience Plan STEP Subtropical Thicket Ecosystem Project STI Science, Technology and Innovation SWH Solar Water Heater UN United Nations UNESCO United Nations Educational,"


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"Livestock farming is the biggest contributor to the sector, and also the largest contributor to AFOLU GHG emissions. Even though its contribution to total GDP is relatively small, and has declined over the years due to the rise of other economic sectors, agriculture, forestry and fishing remains a key provider of rural employment and export earnings (DAFF, 2017a)."


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"Low economic growth over the last decade has been accompanied by high levels of unemployment and persistent poverty and inequality. The recent advent of the COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated these challenges \u2013 in common with other countries, South Africa\u2019s economy is expected to contract significantly before beginning to recover from 2021 onwards. At the same time, this has created an opportunity to, in the words of South Africa\u2019s President Ramaphosa, \u201cnot merely return to where we were before the pandemic struck."


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"Low performance in environmental sustainability in this index is due to the electricity sector\ufffds heavy reliance on coal, while increasing petroleum prices, coupled with rising electricity tariffs, contributed to the low score on energy equity (WEC, 2014). While approximately 84% of households in South Africa are electrified, energy poverty is still a significant challenge. As many as 2 million South African households are still without access to electricity (Stats SA, 2017b). Universal access is a key priority for the South African government."


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"M&E will be a key focus area of the strategy, and it will seek to strengthen the current climate finance M&E framework by extending monitoring and reporting to include all elements of the climate finance value chain, including private sector finance. Furthermore, the strategy will consider the development of mechanisms for evaluating the outcomes of climate finance to understand the extent to which it is accelerating South Africa\ufffds climate change mitigation and adaptation responses."


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"MITIGATION MEASURES 21 Energy supply 21 4.1.1 Integrated Energy Plan . 21 4.1.2 Integrated Resource Plan . 23 4.1.3 Biofuels opportunities . 26 ii Energy demand . 27 4.2.1 National Energy Efficiency Strategy 27 4.2.2 Support for uptake of Solar Water Heaters . 31 4.2.3 National Building Regulations and Buildings Standards Act . 31 4.2.4 Promotion of Cleaner Mobility . 32 Industry 33 4.3.1 Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP) 34 4.3.2 Tax incentives for green project development 35 Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU) 36 Waste 37 Cross-Cutting Measures 39 4.6.1 Carbon Tax . 39 4.6.2 Sectoral Emissions Targets (SETs) 40 4.6.3 Carbon Budgets 41 4.6.4 Phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies/incentives 41 GOING FURTHER TO ACHIEVE THE PARIS GOALS . 42 Enhancing the vision for development . 43 Enhancing institutional capabilities and arrangements for the transition 44 Creating the right financial environment through aligning fiscal strategy with sustainable growth . 46 Providing broad access to funds 47 5.4.1 Climate finance flows to date 48 5.4.2 Formalising climate finance structures 50 5.4.3 Climate finance opportunities 51 Driving innovation, research, and skills for future value capture 54 Ensuring a just transition with jobs for all . 56 Promoting sustainable development"


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"Mainstream and integrate climate considerations in national development, sub- national and sector policy frameworks for the 5. Strengthen the institutional capacity for climate change response planning and implementation for the period 2021 to 2030; 6. Improve the understanding and awareness of climate change impacts and capacity to respond to these impacts for the period of 2021 to 2030;\f  Elements Undertaking for the period Assumptions / Methodologies / Context Efforts Adaptation investment 7."


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"Many of the sub-national government structures are currently dysfunctional and lack the capacity to support implementation of and manage funding for the actions required to support the low carbon transition."


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"Marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) for key sectors and subsectors were constructed. The MACCs provide estimates of mitigation potential and marginal abatement costs for broad mitigation measures. Estimates of national mitigation potential have been derived from the sectoral MACCs and ranked in terms of level of implementability at national level for each of the technologies."


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"Meeting these targets will require South Africa to implement a range of policies and measures, including a very ambitious power sector investment plan as set out in the 2019 Integrated Resource Plan, the Green Transport Strategy,\f  enhanced energy efficiency programmes, and the recently-implemented carbon tax. As stated in section 1, the implementation of these ambitious mitigation targets will require substantial multilateral support, as provided for in the Paris Agreement. South Africa is updating these mitigation targets in the expectation that such support will be available."


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"Meltzer (2016) points out that the challenge is thus how to deal with the high upfront cost of these investments, since they are likely to more than pay for themselves over time. Climate finance flows to date Oliver et al (2018) find that US$ 472 billion of climate finance was deployed in 2015, US$ 455 billion in 2016 and between US$ 510 billion and US$ 530 billion in 2017."


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"Metrics: South Africa currently uses 100-year Global Warming Potential (GWP) values from the IPCC\u2019s 2nd Assessment Report. South Africa will switch to using GWPs from the IPCC\u2019s 5th Assessment Report for future reports under the Paris Agreement (from 2024 onwards), as specified in the Annex to decision 18/CMA.1, or as specified in subsequent CMA decisions."


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"Mining and the industrial sector South Africa accounts for a substantial proportion of the world\ufffds mineral resource reserves, with non-energy minerals having an estimated value of approximately US$ 2.5 trillion (DMR, 2011). Key mineral outputs include gold, coal, manganese, chrome, platinum and diamonds (dti, 2015). Domestically, coal provides over 70% of the country\ufffds primary energy supply (South African Government, 2012). South Africa is also major producer of non- ferrous metals (aluminium, copper, brass, lead, zinc and tin)."


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"Mitigation component of the INDC (M-INDC) In keeping with South Africa\u2019s commitment to progress its contribution to the global effort to mitigate climate change in line with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, South Africa\u2019s mitigation component of its INDC moves from a \u201cdeviation from business-as-usual\u201d form of commitment and takes the form of a peak, plateau and decline GHG emissions trajectory range."


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"Mitigation potential: Initial detailed studies of mitigation potential (2007) informed the aforegoing, with a base year 2003 for projections; these have been updated (2014; base year 2010), with the intention of on-going updating and improvement.  Methodologies for Estimating Emissions: 2006 IPCC guidelines Metric applied: 100-year Global Warming Potential, as in the IPCC s 4th Assessment Report (AR4)."


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"Mitigation*component*of*the*NDC** In addition to the narrative account below, more specific details on South Africa\u2019s updated mitigation targets for 2025 and 2030 are provided in Table 3 below, in accordance with the guidance specified in Annex I of decision 4/CMA.1."


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"Modelling of Land-Cover Change in South Africa (2001 \ufffd 2010) in Support of Green House Gas Emissions Reporting: Summary report and metadata. Johannesburg: Wits Commercial Enterprise. Giuzio, M., Krusec, D., Levels, A., Melo, A.S., Mikkonen, A., Radulova, P., (2019). Climate change and financial stability. European Central Bank Financial Stability Review May 2019. Available at:  GreenCape, (2018). Waste: Market Intelligence Report 2018. Available at:   cape.co.za/assets/Uploads/20180622-GreenCape-Waste-MIR-FA-LR.pdf, [Accessed September 2019]. GreenCape, (2019)."


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"More significant changes are expected in average maximum and minimum temperatures, as well as the frequency of extremes such as heatwaves. This will have major implications for crops, tree species, livestock, game and fisheries as well as the prevalence of pests and diseases. The current projections show a considerable increase in temperature and more erratic rainfall leading to biodiversity loss within the biodiversity sector, which contributes about 418 000 jobs (NBA, 2018)."


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"More than 90% of the country\ufffds electricity is generated from coal by the national utility, Eskom. In recent years, a number of Independent Power Producers (IPPs) have entered the electricity market, predominately generating renewable energy. The main driver of growth in IPPs is the Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP). The REIPPPP is a competitive tender process that is designed to incentivise renewable energy project development."


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"Moreover, the practice of landfilling is becoming less socially acceptable. As such, government is pursuing initiatives to reduce waste generation and divert waste from landfill. These initiatives are discussed further in Section 4.5 . Other sectors Tourism remains a priority growth area due to it being highly labour intensive, supports for small businesses and generation of foreign direct investment (dti, 2015, South African Government, 2012)."


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"NDC targets have been chosen to reflect South Africa\u2019s fair contribution towards the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, as detailed above, in the context of equitable access to sustainable development. In the context of COVID-19, we highlight the importance of global solidarity, in fighting the virus and climate change."


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"NEES . 28 Table 3: Measures outlined in the post-2015 NEES . 29 Table 4: Current institutional arrangements to address climate change response actions . 45 Table 5: The three phases of the just transition . 61 iv ACRONYMS ADP Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action AFOLU Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use BRT Bus Rapid Transport CA Conservation Agriculture Carbon dioxide CoP Conference of the Parties CSIR Council for Scientific and Industrial Research CTL Coal-to-Liquids DAFF Department of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries DBSA Development Bank of Southern Africa DEA Department of Environmental Affairs DoE Department of Energy DSI Department of Science and Innovation GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas GJ Gigajoule GTL Gas-to-liquids (GTL) GTS Green Transport Strategy GWh Gigawatt hour HySA Hydrogen South Africa IDC Industrial Development Corporation IEP Integrated Energy Plan IGCCC Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change v IMCCC Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change IPAP Industrial Policy Action Plan IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPP Independent Power Producer IRP Integrated Resource Plan KfW German KfW Development Bank LEDS Low-Emission Development Strategy LTAS Long Term Adaptation Scenarios LTMS Long Term Mitigation Scenarios MACC Marginal Abatement Cost Curve M&E Monitoring and Evaluation MINMEC"


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"National Building Regulations and Buildings Standards Act To further efforts to decrease energy consumption and the associated GHG emissions of new commercial and residential buildings, the South African government has implemented energy efficiency and energy consumption standards under the National Building Regulations and Buildings Standards Act. Compliance with the Standards is required in order to ensure compliance with the Act. The first of the relevant standards is South African National Standard (SANS) 204 \ufffd Energy Efficiency in Buildings."


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"National Climate Change Response Policy In 2011, the South African government published a National Climate Change Response Policy (NCCRP), which represents government\ufffds comprehensive policy framework for responding to climate change (DEA, 2011)3."


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"National Development Plan 2030: Our Future - Make It Work. Pretoria: National Planning Commission, The Presidency, South Africa. RSA. 2015. \u201cSouth Africa\u2019s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). Online 25 September 2015.\u201d Pretoria: Republic of South Africa.   Documents/South Africa/1/South Africa.pdf. \u2014\u2014\u2014. 2016. \u201cSouth Africa\u2019s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). 1 November.\u201d Tshwane. UCT. 2021a. \u201cSouth Africa\u2019s \u2018Fair Share\u2019: Mitigation Targets in the Updated First NDC in an International Context.\u201d Cape Town. \u2014\u2014\u2014. 2021b."


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"National Energy Efficiency Strategy In 2005, the Department of Energy launched the first National Energy Efficiency Strategy (2005). Building on this document, the Department of Minerals and Energy is finalizing the post-2015 National Energy Efficiency Strategy (NEES), which outlines a set of goals for energy efficiency improvements across the economy to 2030 (DoE, 2016b). Table 2 captures the targets included in the NEES, with the explanation of how each of these targets was established being provided in the NEES document."


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"National Terrestrial Carbon Sink Assessment (NTCSA), (2015) Department of Environmental Affairs, Pretoria, South Africa. Available at:  [Accessed June 2019]. Nicholls, S., Vermaak, M. & Moola, Z., (2015). Green Economy Finance Project Research Report - Project Overview: The power of collective action in green economy planning, Johannesburg: The National Business Initiative. OECD, (2019). Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries in 2013-17, OECD Publishing, Paris. Available at:   [Accessed June 2019]. Oliver, P., Clark, A., Meattle, C., (2018)."


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"National circumstances, such as geography, climate, economy, sustainable development and poverty eradication; b. Best practices and experience related to the preparation of the nationally determined contribution; c. Other contextual aspirations and priorities acknowledged when joining the Paris Agreement;  See section 2 above."


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"National life, from local politics, business decisions, and mass media communications, will have to reflect these ideas, preparing citizens and decision-makers for a new perspective on economic development. The climate challenge will only be tackled under the paradigm of sustainable development."


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"Non-ferrous metals and stainless steel accounts for about a third of all the country\ufffds manufactured products output. Minerals represent an important source of export revenue. Having said that, coal prices and markets are demonstrating volatility due in part to global decarbonisation efforts. This is likely to become even more relevant moving into the future. The chemical industry is dominated by the emissions-intensive synthetic coal and natural gas-based liquid fuels industry, as well as the petrochemicals industry."


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"Not applicable. 5. Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals:  (a) Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals corresponding to the Party\u2019s nationally determined contribution, consistent with decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 31, and accounting guidance adopted by the CMA; South Africa will use a GHG inventory-based approach in accounting for its mitigation targets for 2025 and 2030."


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"Notable here is a process being undertaken by the National Planning Commission (NPC) to develop a common vision for the country in 2050. This vision will be instrumental in driving harmonisation of government plans and policies and so it is important that the NPC process and vision takes into account the Paris goals. In addition to policies and measures being implemented by national government, many sub-national (provincial and local) government departments are undertaking activities that contribute to the national mitigation, adaptation and resilience efforts."


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"Note that the current GHG inventory, consistent with the 2006 IPCC guideline reporting requirements, used GWPs from the Third Assessment Report (TAR) and indicated that future inventories will use GWP values from AR4.\f Approach to AFOLU: Agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) are included as one of the major IPCC categories. The greater uncertainty in AFOLU emissions should be noted, as well as the intention to reduce uncertainty over time."


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"Occasional Studies Volume 16 - 7De Nederlandsche Bank N.V: Amsterdam. Available at: [Accessed June 2019]. WEC, (2014). 2014 Energy Trilemma Index: Benchmarking the Sustainability of National Energy Systems. London: World Energy Council. World Bank, (2019). GINI index (World Bank estimate). Available at:  Wright, J. et al., (2017). Formal comments on the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) Update Assumptions, Base Case and Observations 2016, Pretoria: CSIR."


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"Of the US$ 463 billion average annual flow over 2015 and 2016, an average of US$ 45 billion flowed from developed to developing countries, and only US$ 12 billion per annum (including domestic resources) was deployed in Sub-Saharan Africa. Of the US$ 463 billion average annual value, more than 80% originated from domestic sources (US$ 162 billion from within OECD countries and US$ 214 billion from within non-OECD countries)."


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"Of the initiatives, five are likely to have direct and indirect impacts on the total national greenhouse gas emissions. The importance of circular economy thinking in guiding the Waste Phakisa initiatives is recognised. Cross-Cutting Measures In addition to the measures specific to individual sectors described, four cross-cutting measures that will support low carbon development are in various stages of being implemented."


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"Of the twenty initiatives, those that are likely to have direct and indirect impacts on the total national greenhouse gas emissions include (GreenCape, 2018): \ufffd Achieving a minimum of 50% of households separating organics at source by 2023; \ufffd  Introduction of Material Recovery Facilities (MRFs) and pelletising plants to increase plastic recycling rates, and formalising packaging industry producer responsibility plans; \ufffd Developing capacity through a specialised programme which upskills agri-stakeholders to minimise food loss, and running a consumer awareness campaign to use and consume \ufffdugly\ufffd food, towards saving 245,000 tonnes of food waste to landfill per year; \ufffd Establishing refuse derived fuel plants across South Africa, towards diverting 120,000 tonnes of waste from landfill;  and \ufffd Establishing a refrigerant reclamation and reusable cylinder industry to reduce emissions of refrigerant gases."


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"On the one hand, rapid implementation must begin in all areas where pathways to achieving the Paris Goals are already clear (such as investments in renewable energy power generation, solar water heaters, etc) while on the other, steps taken will need to enable future action at scale, as much as (or perhaps more than) drive immediate emissions reductions."


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"On the one hand, rapid implementation must begin in all areas where pathways to achieving the Paris Goals are already clear while on the other, steps taken will need to enable future action at scale, as much as (or perhaps more than) drive immediate emissions reductions. Clearly, \ufffdStarting Right\ufffd cannot be successfully executed without a long-term pathways analysis to provide confidence on the Paris-compatibility of implemented measures as well as the overall direction of travel."


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"One area where South Africa has demonstrated that it has the capacity to effectively absorb large amounts of climate finance, and where a scaling up of climate finance could have a positive mitigation impact relevant on a global scale, is the electricity supply sector (as outlined in Section 4.1.2). South Africa\ufffds electricity supply industry is set for significant change in coming years as a result of an electricity supply crisis and reform of the current poorly performing vertically integrated utility model."


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"Only the lower PPD is within the range calculated using the PRIMAP tool in 2020. In 2025 and 2030, none of the PPD values overlap with the calculated ranges.\fflexibility in emissions for a given year. The national carbon budget range for the period eq.  An assessment of equity also needs to take into account means of implementation."


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"Our Low Emissions Development Strategy provides a long-term perspective on these near- and medium-term mitigation targets. In communicating this update of our first NDC, South Africa is voluntarily providing information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) as specified in Annex I of decision 4/CMA.1, responding to the strong encouragement to apply ICTU guidance when updating NDCs by 2020, pursuant to paragraph 7 of the decision (UNFCCC 2018a)."


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"Our National Planning Commission undertook an extensive process to develop a vision 2050, considering goals of net zero or zero emissions for South Africa. In our long-term Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS), communicated voluntarily under Article 4.19, South Africa committed \u201cto ultimately moving towards a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, which will require various interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions."


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"Our initial NDC communicated in 2015 referred to South Africa\u2019s GHG inventory in terms of scope and coverage, and indicated the use of IPCC methodologies, as well as reflecting some uncertainties. The NDC target range was methodologically based on the latest national inventory report at the time (covering emissions for the years 2000-2010), submitted to the UNFCCC as part of SA\u2019s first Biennial Update Report (2014)."


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"Over the same period, however, the South African government deployed almost US$ 690 million of climate finance (DEA, 2019c).12 The distribution of local public sector climate finance is shown in Figure 8. Even though South African climate finance deployment was small by international standards, it is nowhere near the levels that will be required from 2020 as discussed in the previous section. The percentage of climate finance generated from domestic versus international sources is in line with international trends over this period."


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"Over the same period, the total annual investment in implementation increased from US$0.18 to US$0.59 bn per year in the Agriculture and Forestry sectors; from US$ 0.23bn to US$0.36 bn in the Energy sector, from US$0.01 bn to $US 0.02 bn in Human Settlements sector; from US$ 0.03 bn to US$ 0.05 bn in Biodiversity sector; from US$ 0.17 bn to US$ 0.59 bn in the Water sector; and from US$0.02 bn to US$ 0.7 bn in the disaster risk reduction and emergency response sector."


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"Overall tax revenue must be decoupled from volumes of fossil fuel sales and exports in order to ensure that financial sustainability of the state does not become a brake to the changes which are needed. Negative externalities should be considered for a greater share of intake, supported by detailed analysis including market responses over time, which itself should inform the pathway planning approach. Capital investment should be encouraged in technology and implementation choices to support Paris-compatible pathways."


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"Pathway planning has emerged as an analytical tool that can inform national policy development over time towards objectives that sit beyond a typical policy horizon. Pathways aim to visualize the whole timespan between the present and the time for which a target is set, seeking to establish what steps make sense now in the context of reaching the long-term goal. When establishing potential pathways, the desired end-state should be linked to the present, but by \ufffdbackcasting\ufffd rather than forecasting."


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"Planning processes, assumptions and methodological approaches including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals Planning processes: The approach to the current INDC is based on national climate policy (NCCRP) and the national development plan (NDP), and will be given effect through energy, industrial and other plans and legislation."


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"Planning processes:  (a) Information on the planning processes that the Party undertook to prepare its nationally determined contribution and, if available, on the Party\u2019s implementation plans, including, as appropriate:  (i) Domestic institutional arrangements, public participation and engagement with local communities and indigenous peoples, in a gender-responsive manner; if available, information provided on a Party\u2019s implementation plans Institutional arrangements and planning process for the NDC: The Department of Forestry, Fisheries & the Environment (DFFE) is the focal point for climate change in South Africa, and led the planning process in preparing this update to South Africa\u2019s first NDC."


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"Policy packages should be built up in sequence over time to ensure the full implementation of the pathway, in the form of a policy pathway which is required to implement the low-carbon transition.\f  INTRODUCTION The global climate crisis Robust scientific evidence shows that the earth\ufffds climate system is changing as a result of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions."


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"Preliminary sectoral analyses have already suggested such specific research and innovation challenge areas that will need to be addressed. Examples of future research direction include: \ufffd As mentioned in Section 4.1.2, the IRP proposes a set of research and analysis activities to be undertaken to support the low carbon transition of the electricity supply sector."


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"Presentation at Side Event on Technology Needs Assessment at the Bonn Climate Change Conference (SB50). South Africa Petroleum Industry Association (SAPIA), (2017). Annual Report: Republic of South Africa South African Government, (2012). National Development Plan 2030. Our Future \ufffd make it work. Pretoria: National Planning Commission, ISBN 978-0-621-41180-5. Available at: Stats SA, (2017a). Economic Sectors That Contribute to South Africa\ufffds GDP: Statistical Release P0302. Pretoria: Statistics South Africa. Available at:   [Accessed June 2019].\f  Stats SA, (2017b). General Household Survey: Statistical Release P0318."


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"Pretoria: Department of Energy. Available at:   [Accessed May 2020].\f  DoT, (2007). Public Transport Strategy. Pretoria: Department of Transport. Available at:  DoT, (2018). Draft Green Transport Strategy: 2017 \ufffd 2050. Government Gazette, No. 41064. Pretoria: Department of Transport. Available at: f/71e19f1d-259e-4c55-9b27-30db418f105a, [Accessed June 2019]. DST, (2007). South Africa\ufffds climate change technology needs assessment, a synthesis report, Pretoria, South Africa: Department of Science and Technology. Available at:  page.org/file/1522/download?token=sHsSA_DE, [Accessed June 2019]. DST, (2019)."


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"Pretoria: Statistics South Africa. Available at:   [Accessed June 2019]. Steyn, G., Burton, J. & Steenkamp, M., (2017). Eskom\ufffds financial crisis and the viability of coal-fired power in South Africa: Implications for Kusile and the older coal-fired power stations, Cape Town, South Africa: Meridian Economics. TCFD, (2017). Recommendations of the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures. Available at:  2019]. Timperley, J., (2018). Interactive: How Climate Finance \ufffdFlows\ufffd Around the World. Available at:  UNFCCC, (2015)."


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"Prioritise understanding of impacts, risk and vulnerability for the key sectors, and the development of climate response plans. The specific sectors recommended for prioritisation are health, water, biodiversity, agriculture and human settlements. The following efforts will lead to the realization of the goal: 1."


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"Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 116 (20), pp. 9808-9813. DMR, (2007). Biofuels Industrial Strategy of the Republic of South Africa. Available at:  DMR, (2011). Beneficiation Strategy of Minerals Industry of South Africa. Available: [Accessed June 2019]. DoE, (2005). National Energy Efficiency Strategy. Department of Energy. Pretoria: Republic of South Africa. Available at:   [Accessed June 2019]. DoE, (2016a). Draft Integrated Energy Plan. Available at:   Energy-Plan-Report.pdf, [Accessed June 2019]. DoE, (2016b)."


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"Programmes to achieve this will require climate finance and other forms of support provided to developing countries as specified in Articles 9, 10 and 11 of the Paris Agreement. The revisions and enhancements in South Africa\u2019s NDC are a reflection of several trends in the country with respect to climate change. First, more information is available on climate change impacts and the costs of addressing these, which is reflected in South Africa\u2019s first adaptation communication, included here as the adaptation component of the updated NDC."


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"Progress and achievement will be accounted for by comparing the target ranges in 2025 and 2030 with the annual emissions contained in South Africa\u2019s GHG inventory for all sectors, excluding emissions arising from natural disturbances in the land sector. Emissions arising from natural disturbances will be disaggregated in the NIR for each relevant IPCC category and reported separately, and used as the basis for accounting for implementation and achievement of the NDC targets."


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"Progress still needs to be made towards direct unilateral access to adaptation finance in the face of decline dept free funding such as grants. Development of climate change adaptation investment pipeline projects. Adaptation needs and costs for the period USD 267 billion.  Adaptation needs and costs adapted by a minimum of 4% GDP impact is USD billion by 2025 and USD 37 5 billion by 2030."


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"Promoting sustainable development through education and culture Education can be a key factor in promoting sustainable development, by helping people develop knowledge, skills, values and behaviors which enhance their understanding and appreciation of how sustainability means a better life for them and their communities.  Specific actions range vary the education curriculum, and must also include cultural and citizen awareness campaigns."


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"Proposed components of policy packages could include those that focus on: \ufffd Planning; \ufffd Institutional / regulatory; \ufffd Project implementation; \ufffd Financing; \ufffd Acceptance, skills and just transition; and \ufffd Avoiding lock-in. Policy packages should be built up in sequence over time to ensure the full implementation of the pathway, in the form of a policy pathway which is required to implement the low-carbon transition.  \f  REFERENCES Bhattacharya, A., Meltzer, J., Oppenheim, J., Qureshi, Z., Stern, N., (2016)."


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"Provisions and sub-provisions of Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1 Information provided in respect of the updated South African NDC (ii) Specific projects, measures and activities to be implemented to contribute to mitigation co-benefits, including information on adaptation plans that also yield mitigation co-benefits, which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, water resources, coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, agriculture and forestry; and economic diversification actions, which may cover, but are not limited to, sectors such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture and fisheries."


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"Provisions and sub-provisions of Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1 Information provided in respect of the updated South African NDC 6."


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"Provisions and sub-provisions of Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1 Information provided in respect of the updated South African NDC Pools: All carbon pools are included in the NDC and NIR, with the exception of dead organic matter \u2013 litter is included but dead wood is not currently included, as stated in the NIR."


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"Quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year): This section is not applicable to the South African NDC, since the first NDC and this update, do not define mitigation targets in relation to a reference point, but as a fixed level GHG emissions range in 2025 and 2030. Therefore, each entry below is marked \u201cNot applicable\u201d. (a) reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s) Not applicable, as above."


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"Recognises the need for a just low carbon transition NPC vision process (ongoing): Process to develop a low-carbon vision for the country to guide mitigation and adaptation action National Climate Change Response Policy (2011): Framework for South Africa\ufffds climate mitigation and adaptation response Carbon Tax: Sets a price on greenhouse gas emissions from certain activities Climate Change Bill (forthcoming): Establishes the legal framework for implementation instruments to drive mitigation and adaptation O\ufffdhe\ufffd de\ufffda\ufffd\ufffd\ufffde\ufffd\ufffd\ufffd\ufffd \ufffd\ufffd\ufffd\ufffdc\ufffde\ufffd: Other government policies across many departments either increase or decrease GHGs Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA): Projections of National Greenhouse Gas emissions under \ufffdtechnically feasible\ufffd mitigation action Pathways study: National emissions trajectories under alternative economic futures and enhanced/step change mitigation action Policies and Measures (PAMs) study: Impact of existing PAMs on the national emissions trajectory Figure 1: SA-LEDS in the context of prior climate-related work in South Africa Despite being based largely on current knowledge and legislative context, SA-LEDS will be updated as new and critical areas of work are completed by relevant government departments."


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"Regarding mitigation, South Africa has undertaken further detailed analysis of its relative fair share, updating the information provided in the first NDC. A fair share framework was developed, as a lens on how South Africa\u2019s mitigation contribution represents a fair share of global mitigation efforts (see Table 3, section 6a above; and UCT 2021a)."


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"Regarding mitigation, as noted in the table above, analysis by South African experts reports that a fairly apportioned overall carbon budget for South Africa for the period from 2015 to 2050 would exceed the budget implied by the upper limit of the PPD trajectory range, although other approaches to equity report a much lower number.2  South Africa considers the PPD range to be an equitable contribution to the global mitigation effort, given South Africa\u2019s current and historical emissions and its national circumstances (especially its development challenges)."


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"Resistance to change can become\f  challenging if not well handled, and must be anticipated and addressed with social acceptance and just transition actions. It is at this stage that multiple policies will need to work in concert for the new technological options to make economic sense for businesses and consumers. An overall understanding of the sectoral narratives of change and how they collectively feed into the national vision will be core to the success of this stage."


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"Rollout of specific tools such as the CSIR Green Book, and Let\u2019s Respond Toolkits, National Climate Change Information systems; National Framework on Climate Services System USD million for developing tools, strategies and rollout for the period 2021 to\f  Elements Undertaking for the period Assumptions / Methodologies / Context Efforts Adaptation investment Element (c) of the Annex to  National adaptation priorities, strategies, plans, goals and actions Goal 3: Implementation of NCCAS adaptation interventions for the period 2021 to 20305 The local government plays a key role in climate change response, and therefore building the capacity of the local sphere of government will be significant in achieving adaptation goals."


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"SA-LEDS will thus be reviewed at least every five years or at an earlier date, should there be significant changes in sectoral or national plans/programmes that can result in a big structural changes, growth or decay of the economy and major global events that impact on its content or implementation. Detailed sectoral work to explore transformation pathways The Paris Agreement sets out the long-term climate change goals for the international community."


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"SJRPs \ufffd Develop investment pathways to support the transformation \ufffd Implement foundational changes to drive down the national trajectory \ufffd Implement the institutional changes to accelerate the rate of transformation and remove barriers Massive roll-out \ufffd Roll-out the implementation plans for each sector along with measures to support changes until they become the new reality \ufffd Refine strategies as required, to account for changes in technologies, society and markets Successful rollout of the pathway across the three stages will thus require policy action to be taken in a coordinated manner."


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"SOUTH AFRICA FIRST NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT  Updated September 2021 \f  Contents 1. Introduction . 2 Mandate and scope  2 Taking into account the Talanoa Dialogue, the IPCC Special Report on 1.5oC and the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals . 2 Progression and highest possible ambition, in the light of equity and national circumstances . 3 2. Context: national priorities and circumstances . 3 3."


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"Sector departments, provincial and local government have the concurrent responsibility of developing and implementing adaptation strategies and plans. Three key climate change adaptation institutional structures in the Climate Change Bill \u2013 namely the Presidential Climate Commission (PCC); the Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (IMC) and the Provincial Forum on Climate Change \u2013 are designed to improve both coherence coordination, as well as the implementation of adaptation responses across government, and in engaging with business, civil society and research institutions. 1."


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"Sectoral Emissions Targets \ufffd Constraining the cumulative SETs applied across the sectors and sub-sectors within the GHG emissions trajectory will ensure that, as the trajectory is revised towards meeting the requirements of the Paris Agreement, a consistent message will be sent to all government departments about the requirements for implementation of PAMs to drive down emissions.\f  Carbon Budgets Carbon Budgets set a maximum volume of emissions from certain activities that individual entities are allowed to emit over three rolling five-year periods."


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"Sectors covered; Water, Agriculture, Forestry, Energy, Settlements, Biodiversity, Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Estimated annual costs range(s):  $US 0.4 bn to $US 22.8 bn with a median value of  Low mitigation scenario: $US 0.42 bn - $US 30.8 bn with a median value of $US2.9bn;  Moderate-High mitigation scenario: $US 3.4 bn - $US 29.8 bn with a median value of $2.8bn  Low mitigation scenario: US$ 0.2 bn - $US 53.1 bn with a median value of $US3bn  High mitigation scenario: $US 0.2 bn\u2013 $US 50.0 bn with a median value of $US50 bn  Adaptation investments Goal Communication of past investments in adaptation for education and awareness as well as for international recognition  Development & implementation of a climate change adaptation communication, education and awareness framework, with a view to drive behaviour change based on the early warning and vulnerability assessments and studies of response effectiveness."


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"Short-term additions to the mix include: \ufffd 2,500 MW of new hydro capacity being built by 2030 \ufffd 6,814 MW of new PV capacity being built between 2019 and 2030 \ufffd 15,762 MW of new wind capacity being built between 2019 and 2030 \ufffd 4,000 MW other generation being added to the grid between 2019 and 2030 \ufffd 300 MW of Concentrated Solar Power to be built in 2019 Provision is also made for 1,500 MW of new coal-fired power station capacity, beyond that which has already been committed to."


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"Significant work is already underway globally to promote education surrounding climate change and sustainable development, and best practices are available, such as through the \ufffdEducation for Sustainable Development\ufffd program of UNESCO.15 The concepts of economic transformation, pathways, and just transition must also be included into the educational and cultural work."


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"Significant work will be required to create an environment which is nurturing and inviting to new business models. From shared ownership to provision of service/experience rather than goods/commodities, different ways of satisfying demand \ufffd supported by ever more powerful and accessible digital platforms and networks \ufffd will generate tremendous growth opportunities within a population increasing its per-capita income as poverty is reduced."


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"Similar measures will be necessary to adapt to the impacts of climate change. Our National Planning Commission undertook extensive consultations over two years to develop a draft \u20182050 vision and pathways for a just transition to a low carbon, climate resilient economy and society\u2019. Based on this process, we will be finalising our Just Transition Plan, including defining pathways compatible with pursuing efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5 \u00b0C. The just transition will also need international cooperation, and requires solidary and concrete support."


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"Since 1990, the national average temperature has increased at a rate of more than twice that of global temperature increases, which is already resulting in more frequent droughts and extreme weather events (Wolski 2019; Engelbrecht, Adegoke, Bopape, Naidoo, Garland, Thatcher, McGregor, et al. 2015). South Africa\u2019s economy and energy system is one  2 South Africa has recently communicated its long-term Low greenhouse gas Emission Development Strategy (LEDS), pursuant to Article 4.19 of the Paris Agreement, building on national and sectoral climate change policies."


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"Since 2005 a number of goals have been set, and associated support programmes have been established to drive uptake of SWH, with the NDP introducing a goal of five million SWHs by 2030. \ufffd The National Building Regulations and Buildings Standards Act: To further efforts to decrease energy consumption and associated GHG emissions of new commercial and residential buildings, the government has implemented energy efficiency and energy consumption standards under the National Building Regulations and Buildings Standards Act."


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"Since 2005 a number of goals have been set, and associated support programmes have been established, to drive the uptake of SWH in South Africa, with the National Development Plan introducing a goal of five million SWHs by 2030. In 2015 Department of Energy (DoE) took over responsibility for the National SWH programme from Eskom, making 5,000 subsidies available (further to those that had already been granted)."


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"Since 2010 South Africa has invested\fin adaptation, with an increasing national capacity building expenditure over time from US$0.28m in 2010 to US$1.2m in 2015 per year."


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"Since 2015, South Africa has made significant progress in implementing its response to climate change. The mitigation system continues to be further developed. Our national energy efficiency strategy has been updated for post-2015, and will be reviewed every five years. Procurement of renewable energy since 2015 has seen rapidly falling prices for wind and solar photovoltaics. On legislation, in 2016 GHGs were formally declared priority air pollutants under the existing National Environmental Management Act."


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"Since global emissions have continued to grow practically every year since the convention was signed, despite climate efforts to date, a number of important in-depth changes will have to take place very quickly around the world for this to be credible. The IPCC describes these as \ufffddeep emissions reductions\ufffd in energy, industrial, urban, agricultural, and land management systems, which will transform key aspects of the world economy (IPCC, 2018). For this to succeed, the coming decade will be decisive."


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"Since many actions have long lead times to achieve full effect, backcasting can help identify by when core changes must take place. Once pathways are clearly drawn out, regulatory, institutional, or other structural changes which are required for the transformation can be identified, from which necessary changes can be deduced and used to suggest concrete policy action."


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"Since the development of the Strategy, advancements have been made on second and third generation biofuels technologies.6  These process routes could potentially increase the volumes of biofuel that could be produced in South Africa, without competing with food products for feedstocks.  6 Second generation biofuels are made from lignocellulosic feedstocks, and thus do not compete with food crops for feedstocks. Third generation biofuels are made from algae."


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"Single policies will not be enough to effect such change, however: policy packages including regulatory, financial, planning, project execution, social justice, and lock-in considerations must be built up so their coordinated impact can achieve the transformation. In addition, Parties must identify the enablers of the transition which are required but cannot be provided by the country alone, but rather by the international community through collaboration. The implementation of the policies and interventions can be thought of three stages."


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"So far, South Africa\u2019s Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REI4P) has, as of March 2020, approved 112 renewable energy IPP projects, with a total of 6422 MW procured in four large-scale and three small- scale bid windows. 4201 MW of electricity generating capacity has been connected to the grid. This has attracted investments of ZAR 209.7 billion (ca."


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"Solar Water Heaters in South Africa \ufffd SWH not only provide an opportunity for replacing fossil electricity or gas in water heating in middle- and high-income households, but also for provision of clean energy services to low income households. \ufffd Ongoing implementation of and increased ambition in the SWH programme will drive uptake of these technologies. \ufffd The target of five million SWH installed by 2030 included in the NDP is ambitious in this regard."


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"Some examples of the measures in the GTS that are relevant to SA-LEDS include: \ufffd Exploring the potential for local electric vehicle and battery production, and growing the number of public charging stations, powered by solar panels, by 40 stations per year7;  7 It is recognised that for the full mitigation benefit of electric vehicles to be realised, concurrent electricity grid decarbonisation is required.\f  \ufffd The continued use of fuel economy norms and standards for fuel efficiency and GHG emissions of vehicles."


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"Some of the green industry Action Programmes that will contribute to climate mitigation in the short term included in the IPAP are: \ufffd Developing a Policy Roadmap for Climate-Compatible Industrial Development; \ufffd Systemised resource efficiency data collection and reporting; \ufffd The Industrial Water Efficiency Project (which has a primary focus on water savings which is a resource efficiency/adaptation focus, but will have a mitigation benefit through saving energy associated with water supply); \ufffd The Industrial Energy Efficiency Project; \ufffd Resource-efficient and cleaner production skills development; and \ufffd Specialist skills development in resource-efficiency and cleaner production."


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"Some technologies that could help South Africa to further reduce emissions that have been identified include: Energy efficient lighting; variable speed drives and efficient motors; energy efficient appliances; solar water heaters; electric and hybrid electric vehicles; solar PV; wind power; carbon capture and sequestration; and advanced bio-energy.  South Africa is implementing a mitigation system to move from analysis of mitigation potential to full implementation, however, human and institutional capacity needs to be further enhanced."


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"Sources considered are the ones in the latest GHG inventory (see below). IPCC major categories: energy, IPPU, waste and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry and other land use). Increased disaggregation over time will be enabled through the introduction of mandatory GHG reporting domestically, no later than 2016, with regular reporting to the UNFCCC as multi-laterally agreed."


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"South Africa aims to inform rollout plans through the use of a dedicated change framework. SA-LEDS will thus be reviewed at least every five years or earlier, should there be significant changes in sectoral or national plans/programmes that can result in a big structural changes, growth or decay of the economy and major global events that impact on its content or implementation. Detailed sectoral work to explore transformation pathways The Paris Agreement sets out the long-term climate change goals for the international community."


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"South Africa considers these updated mitigation goals as our highest possible ambition in the light of our national circumstances, and as South Africa\u2019s fair contribution to the long-term mitigation goal."


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"South Africa convened a Job Summit in 2018, which agreed to establish a Presidential Climate Commission to oversee South Africa\u2019s just transition. The Commission has been approved by Cabinet and is in the process of being established through the Climate Change Bill. More details on the implementation of climate change policy in South Africa and its impacts can be found in South Africa\u2019s Fourth Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC."


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"South Africa emphasises the importance of the provision of multilateral support in the implementation of this updated NDC as provided for in the Paris Agreement, to meet both both our adaptation and mitigation goals. South Africa\u2019s second (next) NDC will be communicated in 2025 as specified in UNFCCC decision 1/CP.21."


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"South Africa expect that adequate international support will be provided for both adaptation and mitigation, as a matter of fairness, as provided for in the Paris Agreement. (b) Fairness considerations, including reflecting on equity; As above, in 6(a)."


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"South Africa has already developed a National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy that highlights nine key vulnerability areas for the country (DEA, 2019b): \ufffd Unreliable and uncertain access to water; \ufffd Risks to agricultural productivity and livestock; \ufffd Human safety from climate related extreme events; \ufffd Poor service delivery in human settlements; \ufffd Vulnerable energy systems and other infrastructure;\f  \ufffd Diminished labour force productivity through exposure and health impacts; \ufffd Risks to markets due to supply and demand volatility; \ufffd Economic risks due to carbon intensity and dependence of the economy; and \ufffd Impacts on ecosystems and challenges for conservation."


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"South Africa has already implemented mandatory reporting regulations to support reporting by emitters falling within certain emissions categories. Furthermore, the Department of Environmental Affairs is in the process of establishing the national M&E system, which will be used to monitor  15 See   view/news/southern_africa_celebrates_awarding_of_unesco_japan_esd_priz/\f  implementation of mitigation actions by stakeholders across the economy and ultimately to the implementation of this and subsequent versions of SA-LEDS."


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"South Africa has developed policies in key sectors on mitigation and adaptation focused on both reaching climate goals and ensuring a just transition in which no-one is left behind. It is assumed that international support will be available as specified in Articles 9, 10 and 11 of the Paris Agreement to ensure that both development and climate goals can be met within the timeframe of this NDC, for mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage."


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"South Africa has one of the most carbon-intensive electricity grids in the world, and recent research has shown that aggressive decarbonisation can have significant economic, social and environment benefits (Wright, et al., 2017; Steyn, Burton, & Steenkamp, 2017; Bischof-Niemz & Creamer, 2019). Significant decarbonisation of the electricity grid in the short term, however, is likely to incur significant transition costs, and may not happen without significant international support."


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"South Africa has the largest chemical industry in Africa and is the world leader in coal-based synthetic fuel and gas-to-liquids (GTL) technologies. Other chemicals produced in South Africa include ammonia, nitric acid, carbide, titanium oxide and carbon black. South Africa also has an active manufacturing sector. However, liberalisation of the markets at the end of apartheid resulted in manufacturing industries in South Africa struggling to remain competitive against more\f  diversified manufacturing industries in countries such as China, Vietnam and Bangladesh (Bhorat and Rooney, 2017)."


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"South Africa intends to perform corresponding adjustments in accounting for its NDC targets in accordance with relevant decisions taken by the CMA in relation to Article 6\f  Provisions and sub-provisions of Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1 Information provided in respect of the updated South African NDC and the structured summary for implementation and achievement of its NDC, both currently being negotiated under the Paris Agreement."


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"South Africa intends to take this approach to accounting for land sector emissions/sinks to take into account significant interannual variations in emissions from natural disturbances \u2013 in the case of South Africa, stemming mainly from wildfires. Emissions from this source vary considerably and unpredictably from year to year, and this variability is likely to grow with further climate change."


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"South Africa is already experiencing significant impacts of climate change, particularly as a result of increased temperatures and rainfall variability, and is warming at more than twice the global rate of temperature increase (Wolski 2019)(Engelbrecht, Adegoke, Bopape, Naidoo, Garland, Thatcher, Mcgregor, et al. 2015) This increase is more pronounced for the western parts and the northeast of the country."


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"South Africa is committed to addressing climate change based on science and equity. Climate change is already a measurable reality, and is primarily as a result of the rising concentration due to human induced cumulative emissions of long-lived greenhouse gases (GHG) in the atmosphere since the industrial revolution in the mid 1800\u2019s. South Africa has observed and is projecting further trends of marked temperature increases, rainfall variation and rising sea levels as well as an increased frequency of severe weather events."


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"South Africa is not listed in Annex I of the UNFCCC, and is a developing country in terms of the Paris Agreement, and updates this NDC \u201c[i]n pursuit of the objective of the Convention, and being guided by its principles, including the principle of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances\u201d (Paris Agreement, preamble)."


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"South Africa is putting in place a mitigation system to realise the opportunities of a low-carbon economy while being mindful that an inclusive and just transition requires time and well planned low-carbon and climate resilient development. In order to ramp up implementation of these policies and plans over time, South Africa is investing heavily in transforming its energy sector."


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"South Africa proposes that the COP should consider a process for improvement of information on finance and investments required, and how this can be integrated into existing reporting by developed and developing countries. The international frameworks should also effectively operationalize support for the enhancement of existing human, intellectual and institutional capacity, at the domestic and regional levels.  Equitable access to sustainable development The core principles of equity, responsibility, capability and sustainable development are the basis of South Africa\u2019s INDC."


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"South Africa puts these forward as a starting point from which we will be able to ratchet up our future ambition towards more integrated, transformational strategy, through the approach described in Section 5 and 6 of this document. Energy supply Energy supply is the mandate of the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy."


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"South Africa seeks recognition of its national investments in adaptation as part of its relative fair global effort and analysis of future scenarios indicate a significant increase in requirements. For the period 2021-2030 relative to 1971-2000, under RCP8.5 (low mitigation), an increase of 4% in the median of costs is projected, with a 35% increase in the 90th percentile of costs (that is, extreme years are already significantly more expensive)."


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"South Africa shifted from BAU-based targets for 2020 and 2025 in terms of the Cancun Agreement under the UNFCCC, to a fixed level target range under the Paris Agreement. This update demonstrates further progression, reducing the upper range of South Africa\u2019s 2025 and 2030 targets. These near- to medium-term targets are further informed by a long-term perspective contained in South Africa\u2019s recently-communicated Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS)2 to the UNFCCC, and sets the country on a pathway to implement this Strategy."


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"South Africa should consider participating in a fossil fuel subsidy peer review within the G20 framework to facilitate the sharing of experience\f  and mutual learning among G20 members as the next step in identifying inefficient fossil subsidies within the economy. Phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies \ufffd South Africa will continue to participate in global forums, monitor global developments and consider their relevance within the domestic context given our developmental state, and make informed decisions in tandem with international developments."


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"South Africa should consider participating in a fossil fuel subsidy peer review within the G20 framework to facilitate the sharing of experience and mutual learning among G20 members as the next step in identifying inefficient fossil subsidies within the economy. GOING FURTHER TO ACHIEVE THE PARIS GOALS A set of stand-alone, sector-based policies and measures as well as a selection of cross-cutting interventions that government is busy implementing has been presented above."


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"South Africa should ensure that climate-proof of all new infrastructure development projects and facilities retrofitting of old infrastructure to achieve climate-resilient society.  1. Enhance early warning, vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system for period of 2. Promote research and development in application, localization, transfer and adoption of technology within key climate-sensitive sector for the period 2021- 2030; 3. Enhance the national system of reporting as part of the BTR on climate change adaptation for the period of 2021 -2030; 4."


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"South Africa should see the opportunity to obtain support for education for sustainable development as a core element of its overall strategy to improve education, and so should urgently set about developing a comprehensive, integrated approach to realising this opportunity. Enhancing information and metrics Ensuring availability of data is central to tracking the low carbon transition, and monitoring that this transition is being achieved in a way that is just to all."


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"South Africa submitted its Third Biennial Update Report in 2019, will be submitting its Fourth Biennial Update Report in 2021, and will continue submitting Biennial Update Reports until transitioning to Biennial Transparency Reports (under the Paris Agreement, in terms of decision 18/CMA.1) in 2024."


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"South Africa will account for its NDC in accordance with Annex II of the same decision, from time of submission of its first Biennial Transparency Report in terms of decision 18/CMA.1. The table presenting ICTU below enhances the information provided when communicating the INDC in 2015. We note that ICTU as agreed shall be provided for the second and subsequent NDCs, and look forward to all Parties doing so."


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"South Africa will apply the modalities, procedures and guidelines contained in the Annex to decision 18/CMA.1 in estimating GHG emissions from the first Biennial Transparency Report onwards (due in December 2024), and will use guidelines and GWP values as specified in the Annex to decision 18/CMA.1 (or subsequent CMA decisions) to estimate emissions for it national inventory report."


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"South African banks have also started developing financing tools aimed at the smaller-scale renewables market (GreenCape, 2019). Tools for aggregating and effectively deploying public sector climate finance also exist in the form of, for example, the Green Fund managed by the Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) and the  13 Calculated at the annual average South Africa Rand-US dollar exchange rate for 2018 from the South African Reserve Bank. 14 \ufffdFTE\ufffd means Full Time Employment Created. It refers to one person-year of employment."


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"South African settlements are susceptible to the effects of climate variability, and since 1980 have recorded 86 noticeable weather-related disasters that have affected more than 22 million South  \f  Africans and have cost the economy in excess of R113 billion (US$6.81 billion) in economic losses. It is anticipated that a growing number of South African cities and towns will be exposed to the impacts of weather-induced hazards such as flooding, heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and storms."


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"South Africa\u2019s 2014 national mitigation potential analysis is in the process of being updated, and is now maintained within government. Planning for the decarbonization of the electricity sector advanced with the gazetting of an updated Integrated Resource Plan in 2019, considering climate change mitigation amongst multiple objectives, and allocating large shares of the future energy mix to renewable energy technologies. Further details on sectoral policies and measures are reported in South Africa\u2019s Fourth Biennial Update Report, summarised in its Table ES-3."


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"South Africa\u2019s INDC was formulated in the context of, inter alia, the environmental right set out in section 24 of the Constitution, and its National Development Plan (NDP) (NPC, 2012), which provides a \u20182030 vision\u2019 to guide the country\u2019s sustainable development trajectory where poverty is eliminated and inequalities are reduced by 2030. The implementation of the 2030 NDP vision is further elaborated in its climate policy (the 2011 National Climate Change Response Policy (NCCRP)), climate-compatible sectoral plans and its National Sustainable Development Strategy."


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"South Africa\u2019s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC)  Introduction In accordance with decision 1/CP.19 and 1/CP.20 of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change, South Africa hereby submits its intended nationally determined contribution (INDC) on adaptation, mitigation as well as finance and investment requirements for both."


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"South Africa\u2019s NDC is premised on continued effective multilateral cooperation in the context of the UNFCCC and its Paris Agreement, and the provision of support, both for implementation by developing countries, and for the UNFCCC Secretariat and constituted bodies under the UNFCCC and its Paris Agreement, by developed countries and others in a position to do so."


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"South Africa\u2019s annual GHG emissions will be in a range from 350-420 Mt CO2-eq. Note: \u201cGHG emissions\u201d are defined as total net GHG emissions as specified in the national inventory report for 2025, including all sectors, and excluding emissions from natural disturbances in the land sector. By comparison to the targets contained in South Africa\u2019s first NDC submitted in 2015, South Africa\u2019s updated mitigation targets represent a very significant progression."


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"South Africa\u2019s current understanding is that our land sector is estimated to be a net sink. The intention is to reduce uncertainty in data over time, with a view to a comprehensive accounting approach for land- based emissions and removals. Secondly, trace gases are less material and data is more uncertain than for the three major gases. For the current GHG inventory, submitted to the UNFCCC as part of SA\u2019s first biennial update report (2014), data was gathered for CO2, CH4 and N2O."


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"South Africa\u2019s emissions by 2025 and 2030 will be in a range between 398 and 614 Mt CO2\u2013eq, as defined in national policy. This is the benchmark against which the efficacy of mitigation actions will be measured. The table below outlines elements in para 14 of 1/CP.20, further specifying the mitigation component of South Africa\u2019s INDC:  Reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year) Peak, plateau and decline (PPD) is a GHG emissions trajectory range after mitigation."


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"South Africa\u2019s first Adaptation Communication, serving as the Adaptation component of the NDC  5 The extent of climate change associated risk and vulnerability . 6 Update to the first A-NDC . 7 4. Mitigation component of the NDC  14 Approach to setting updated NDC target ranges . 14 Methodological consistency in setting and accounting for NDC targets  14 Mitigation targets for 2025 and 2030  15 Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding of mitigation  16 5."


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"South Africa\u2019s first NDC placed mitigation targets in the context of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and \u201ctakes the form of a peak, plateau and decline GHG emissions trajectory range. South Africa\u2019s emissions by 2025 and 2030 will be in a range between 398 and 614 Mt CO2 eq, as defined in national policy\u201d, containing mitigation targets for two years (2025 and 2030), corresponding to two periods of implementation (2021-2025, and 2026-2030)."


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"South Africa\u2019s response is informed by the findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and the understanding that further mitigation efforts by all are needed to avoid high to very high risk of severe, widespread, and irreversible impacts globally. However, irrespective of any adequate mitigation efforts, the IPCC also concludes that, due to the inertia and long response time lags in the global climate system, adverse impacts of climate change are inevitable."


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"South Africa\u2019s updated NDC also contains our first adaptation communication in terms of Article 7 of the Paris Agreement in section 3, which serves as South Africa\u2019s adaptation NDC."


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"South Africa\ufffds National Climate Change Response Policy emphasises the importance of mobilising a wide range of financial and non-financial resources for both mitigation and adaptation. The Policy emphasises the need to draw on all available sources of domestic and international financing (DEA, 2011)."


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"South Africa\ufffds National Determined Contribution goes further, and frames the ability to \ufffdcatalyse, at an economy-wide scale, financing of and investment in the transition to a low carbon and climate resilient economy and society\ufffd as a key challenge for South Africa (DEA, 2015). Both these documents highlight the importance of international support given South\f  Africa\ufffds status as a developing country, and the magnitude of the challenge."


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"South Africa\ufffds existing research and industrial capabilities, as well as its natural resources, present a compelling starting point for such an expansion. The national research agenda is largely guided by the priorities set by national government and in particular the Department of Science and Innovation (DSI), as the national department responsible for provision of leadership, an enabling environment and resources for science, technology and\f  innovation."


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"Specific indicators for tracking outcomes and scale of domestic Domestic investment into capacity to facilitate climate change adaptation increased from $US 0.29 million to $US million \fElement Undertaking for the Assumptions / Methodologies Adaptation investment investment and any international support will be developed and reported.  Adaptation investments were gleaned from official annual reports. The years covered are 2010 \u2013 2015. Implementation investment in adaptation programmes increased from $US 0.71 bn to $US to 2015."


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"Stakeholders from all sectors will play a vital part, providing insights into opportunities, challenges, trade-offs and requirements which will inform the national debate and also enrich our\f  position with regards to the international community, be it as part of the UNFCCC negotiations or in discussions with donors and investors. The analyses will seek to determine requirements for enablers from other participants in the global community, as appropriate."


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"Sub-national activities have, however, not yet been aligned or coordinated, and different geographical locations see different levels of activity. A diverse range of actions that contribute to GHG emissions mitigation is also being seen across the private sector, with significant gains having been made in certain sectors on both energy efficiency and emissions mitigation."


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"Subtropical Thicket Ecosystem Project STI Science, Technology and Innovation SWH Solar Water Heater UN United Nations UNESCO United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization vii UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change WtE Waste-to-Energy ZAR South African Rand viii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION South Africa, like the rest of the world, is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change."


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"Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.\u201d) South Africa reaffirms its commitment to the objective of the Convention, as indicated in our first NDC."


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"Such activities include the development of urban low emissions development strategies and broader climate change strategies, and the implementation of a wide range of projects from embedded generation installations on their own buildings to implementing local building codes that support energy efficiency to interventions in the waste sector. Sub-national activities have, however, not yet been aligned or coordinated, and different geographical locations see different levels of activity. The Climate Change Act will seek to address this consideration."


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"Support component of INDC (S-INDC) The key challenge for South Africa is to catalyse, at an economy-wide scale, financing of and investment in the transition to a low carbon and climate resilient economy and society. In this context, South Africa\u2019s S-INDC comprises indicative scales of finance and investment required for both adaptation and mitigation, based on analyses of specific sectors and initiatives."


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"Support for implementation of transparency and building of transparency-related capacity should be provided on a continuous basis, pursuant to Article 13.14 and 13.15 of the Paris Agreement. As detailed in South Africa\u2019s 4th BUR, during the years 2018-2019, South Africa received USD4.886 billion in climate finance, or around USD2.4 billion per year, the majority of which was in the form of loans (11.% of this total was received in the form of grant finance, and the remainder in the form of loans)."


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"Support for uptake of Solar Water Heaters Solar Water Heaters (SWH) provide the opportunity to partially offset use of electricity for water heating in middle- and high-income households, and to service low-income households that did not previously have ready access to hot water or used fuels other than electricity for water heating."


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"Support from the international financial mechanisms: Adaptation fund: $10 Million; UNEP: Equity considerations in adaptation South Africa views adaptation as a global responsibility in the light of Article 2 of the Convention as further codified in the UNFCCC as a temperature goal. Further understanding climate impacts as being driven by global inaction / action on mitigation, the adaptation burden is therefore a global responsibility."


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"Support requirements under the Convention and Paris Agreement  28 6. Equitable access to sustainable development . 29 7. Uncertainties . 30 8. References and further information . 32 Tables TABLE 1 - SOUTH AFRICA S FIRST ADAPTATION COMMUNICATION . 8 TABLE 2 - SOUTH AFRICA S UPDATED NDC MITIGATION TARGETS . 15 TABLE 3 - INFORMATION TO FACILITATE CLARITY, TRANSPARENCY AND UNDERSTAND OF SOUTH AFRICA\u2019S UPDATED NDC . 17  \f  1."


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"S\ufffd\ufffd\ufffdh Af\ufffd\ufffdca\ufffd\ufffd Ec\ufffd\ufffd\ufffd\ufffd\ufffd South Africa has the second largest economy in Africa, after Nigeria, with a nominal 2019 GDP of US$ 371.298 billion and nominal GDP per capita in that year of US$ 6,331 (IMF, 2019). Figure 2 shows the sectoral contributions to GDP. At the same time, South Africa is amongst the most economically unequal countries in the world, as reflected by the Gini Coefficient of 0.63 in 2014 (World Bank, 2019)."


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"Table 1 - South Africa s First Adaptation Communication Elements Undertaking for the period Assumptions / Methodologies / Context Efforts Adaptation investment Element (a) of the Annex to decision  National circumstances, institutional arrangements and legal frameworks.  Enhance climate change adaptation governance and legal frameworks South Africa has a three-tier system of government, which includes national, provincial and local tiers. The national Department of Environment, Forestry and Fisheries4 is the focal point for climate change and is responsible for climate change adaptation planning."


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"Table 1: Strategic interventions o\ufffd\ufffd\ufffd\ufffd\ufffded \ufffd\ufffd S\ufffd\ufffd\ufffdh Af\ufffd\ufffdca\ufffd\ufffd National Adaptation Strategy Intervention Target outcome Achieve an effective adaptation planning regime that adequately responds to climate change threats Achieve an effective adaptation planning regime that covers at least 80% of the South African economy by Define adaptation practice that integrates biophysical and socio-economic aspects of vulnerability and resilience Define an adaptation vulnerability and resilience framework implemented from 2020 across 100% of key adaptation sectors Establish effective governance & legislative processes to integrate climate change in development planning Define and legislate for adaptation governance through the Climate Change Act by 2019 National and sectoral implementation of adaptation actions Achieve a 100% coverage of climate change considerations in sectoral operational plans by 2025 Achieve adequate and predictable financial resourcing of adaptation actions and needs, from a variety of sources Achieve 80% resourcing of national adaptation needs, primarily from national fiscus, including international sources Develop an M&E system that tracks implementation of adaptation actions and their effectiveness Development of a national M&E system to track vulnerability, resilience, implementation and resource allocation by 2025 VISION"


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"Table 2: Energy efficiency targets outlined in the post-2015 NEES Sector/subsector Goal Public buildings sector - 50% reduction in specific energy consumption (measured as GJ annual energy consumption per m2 of occupied floor area), by 2030. Municipal services - 20% reduction in the energy intensity (measured as energy consumption per capita of population served) of municipal service provision, by 2030. The specific services included are street lighting, traffic lights, water supply and waste water treatment."


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"Table 3 - Information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understand of South Africa\u2019s updated NDC Provisions and sub-provisions of Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1 Information provided in respect of the updated South African NDC 1."


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"Table 3: Measures outlined in the post-2015 NEES Sector Measures Time frame Public sector Introduce mandatory Energy Performance Certificates in all rented properties and publicly accessible buildings Develop the public sector awareness raising campaign to facilitate the \ufffdleading by example\ufffd approach Introduce standards and labelling relevant for public sector appliances and equipment Announce a 15-year trajectory for the successive tightening of the energy performance component of building standards and successively tighten standards 5 years Roll-out the provision of energy and activity data to the public sector Municipal sector Develop municipal energy efficiency strategies Support the implementation of energy savings measures Residential sector Announce a 15-year trajectory for the successive tightening of minimum energy performance standards for household appliances and successively tighten standards Develop a strongly branded energy performance certification mark for household appliances (modelled on the \ufffdEnergy Star\u201f brand), in addition to the planned energy efficiency labels."


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"Table 4: Current institutional arrangements to address climate change response actions Structure Function Parliament and Portfolio Committees Oversee and monitor the implementation of the national climate change responses Make laws to support climate change responses in the country Presidential Climate Change Coordinating Commission (PCCCC): (Yet to be established) Coordinate and oversee the low carbon and just transition, including how to maximise the opportunities for jobs. The Inter-Ministerial Committee on Climate Change (IMCCC): Executive level committee."


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"Table 5: The three phases of the just transition Starting Right (start immediately and complete by end of financial year) \ufffd Start the process of developing long term plans for each sector, to avoid lock-in to emissions intensive infrastructure and establish the basis for transformation at scale \ufffd Develop approaches for allocation of Sectoral Emissions Targets (SETs) and carbon budgets to high emitting entities \ufffd Develop Sector Jobs Resilience Plans (SJRPs) to support the transition to the low carbon economy and climate resilient society in a Just manner \ufffd Identify the institutional, legislative, finance and other changes required to achieve the transformation \ufffd Develop an understanding of the relevant government decisions which need to be taken to achieve the long-term plans \ufffd Develop a monitoring plan Turning the corner (start immediately, as appropriate, and complete by \ufffd Develop and begin to implement detailed transformation plans for each sector, which is supported by the implementation of the SETs, carbon budgets and SJRPs \ufffd Develop investment pathways to support the transformation \ufffd Implement foundational changes to drive down the national trajectory \ufffd"


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"Table H in the NIR transparently reports the \u201cActivities in the 2017 inventory which are not estimated (NE), included elsewhere (IE) or not occurring (NO).\u201d A common reason for \u2018not estimated\u2019 is lack of data, and detailed explanations are provided in the NIR. South Africa has used the same approach for its previous NAMAs under the UNFCCC for 2020 and 2025."


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"Targets have been set on the assumption that support will be provided to South Africa as a developing country as set out in the Paris Agreement\u2019s Articles 9, 10, 11 and 13 for implementation of the targets, for the required just transition policies and measures, and for both developing capacity to report on implementation and achievement of the targets. Coverage, scope and the methodological basis for estimating and projecting emissions to inform South Africa\u2019s NDC targets are based on the national GHG inventory."


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"Tax incentives and mitigation \ufffd The National Treasury provides a range of tax incentives that contribute to mitigation activities in South Africa \f  Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU) South Africa\ufffds land cover is dominated by open ecosystems in the form of shrublands (covering just under 40% of the total land area), savanna woodlands (33%) and grasslands (27%)."


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"Tax incentives for green project development The implementation of technologies with potential for contribution to emissions reductions in the industrial sector is supported by various tax incentives, contained in the Income Tax Act of South Africa: \ufffd Section 12B allows companies to deduct the cost incurred from investing in assets that are used directly for the production of renewable energy from their taxable income; \ufffd Section 12I offers support for both capital investment and training related to Greenfield (new) and Brownfield (expansions or upgrades) projects within South Africa\ufffds manufacturing sector."


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"The 2019 update includes: \ufffd Extension of the period of analysis to look at the period to 2050 (the IRP 2010 only looked to 2030), however 2019 IRP only provides a build plan to 2030; \ufffd Updated demand projections; and \ufffd Updated technology costs. By extending the coverage to 2050, the impact of decommissioning Eskom\ufffds coal fired generation capacity on the long-term requirements for new capacity is clearer."


