# document

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created_at: 2023-10-04 15:13:28
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"The Act gives effect to the \ufffdpolluter pays principle\ufffd and aims to price carbon by internalising the negative costs of emitting GHGs. The tax rate is set at R120 per tonne of CO2-eq produced. To allow businesses time for transition, a basic tax-free allowance of 60% will initially apply to all emissions, with a number of further allowances depending on the activities. These provide for maximum tax-free allowances of between 60 and 95%."


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created_at: 2023-10-04 15:13:28
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"The Climate Change Bill makes provision for regular updates of this trajectory, through which it can be better placed within the context of the Paris Agreement.  Figure 5: S\ufffd\ufffd\ufffdh Af\ufffd\ufffdca\ufffd\ufffd Pea\ufffd, P\ufffda\ufffdea\ufffd, Dec\ufffd\ufffd\ufffde T\ufffda\ufffdec\ufffd\ufffd\ufffd\ufffd Range\f  As indicated previously, a process is currently being undertaken by the National Planning Commission to develop a common vision for the country in 2050. The vision will be used to update SA-LEDS once released."


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"The Climate Change Bill, described later, makes provision for regular updates of this trajectory, through which it can be better placed within the context of the Paris Agreement. The outcomes of the National Planning Commission process to develop a common vision for the country in 2050 will be used to update SA-LEDS once released. In the development of the vision, South Africa will give due consideration to the IPCC Special Report on 1.5\u00b0C, which represents the latest available science regarding this goal."


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"The Climate Change Bill, which has been considered by both houses of Parliament from 2018, is planned to be finalised in 2021, and as framework legislation, will provide a firm legal basis for further action, including mandatory second and subsequent phases of the carbon budget programme, as well as the establishment of sectoral emissions targets (SETs). In 2019, South Africa passed a Carbon Tax Act, and started pricing GHG emissions in all sectors other than waste and AFOLU."


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"The DAFF Agroforestry Strategic Framework for South Africa (DAFF, 2017c) presents a broad overview of the potential for agroforestry in a South African context by providing a set of principles and strategic themes and goals. It recognises the carbon sequestration potential role of agroforestry.  Mitigation in the AFOLU sector \ufffd The policy framework already provision for a selection of actions that will support emissions reductions and expansion of the carbon sink. These include promotion of land afforestation, conservation agriculture farming methods and agroforestry."


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"The DoE aims to roll out new, fully subsidised low-income installations as part of their Social Programme, and is seeking to drive an increase in localised manufacture to have the positive co-benefit of local economic development. In addition to government programmes that act as drivers, the uptake of SWH continues to be supported by rising energy prices and electricity supply challenges."


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"The Energy Act also mandates the Minister of Energy to develop, review and publish the IEP. The IEP approach analyses current energy supply and demand trends within the different sectors of the economy, across all energy carriers. It then uses this information along with assumptions about future demand and technology evolution to project the country\ufffds future energy requirements under a variety of different scenarios, including those with emissions limits and different carbon prices."


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"The Energy sector accounted for 79.5% of the total gross emissions for South Africa in 2015 (Figure 3), with the percentage contribution of this sector to overall emissions growing by 25% between 2000 and 2015. Energy industries (which includes electricity generation and liquid fuels production from both crude oil and coal) were the main contributor, accounting for 60.4% of emissions from the energy sector and almost half of gross emissions. This was followed by transport, other sectors, and manufacturing industries and construction."


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"The GHG trajectory, also referred to as the peak, plateau and decline (PPD), shown in Figure 5 below, indicates that SA\ufffds GHG emissions should peak in the period 2020 to 2025 in a range with a lower limit of 398 Mt CO2-eq and upper limits of 583 Mt CO2-eq and 614 Mt CO2- eq for 2020 and 2025 respectively."


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"The GTS provides the strategic direction for the transport sector regarding the reduction of GHG emissions, the contribution of transport to the green economy and the promotion of sustainable mobility. The Strategy aims to support reductions in the contribution of the transport sector to national greenhouse gas emissions by at least 5% by 2050."


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"The INDC and first NDC are identical. For simplicity we refer to the \u201cfirst NDC\u201d in the following, and \u201cupdate\u201d means both updating and enhancing the first NDC1. This document is not our second NDC \u2013 this will be communicated in 2025. The structure of the update is consistent with the first NDC, including components on adaptation, mitigation as well as support requirements for both."


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"The IPAP also supports fuel cell industry development.  How the IPAP can contribute to mitigation \ufffd The IPAP defines key milestones to be reached in the implementation of the various industry support programmes. \ufffd While the IPAP implementation period is short term, the Plan is updated regularly which provides the opportunity for ongoing reflection on both the Programmes themselves and their targets/milestones, and how they can be refined or expanded towards contributing to the national mitigation effort."


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"The IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5\u00b0C has provided significant new understanding on the targets of the Paris Agreement, as briefly discussed in Section 1.2.   It is clear that Parties must find a way to ensure that emissions over time decrease rapidly as part of a sustainable development pathway, consistent with the goal of carbon neutrality in the second half of this century. Changes in all productive sectors, and important enhancements of international cooperation, are required."


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"The IRP proposes a set of policy adjustments to ensure \ufffda practical plan that will be flexible to accommodate new, innovative technologies that are not currently cost competitive, the minimization of the impact of decommissioning of coal power plants and the changing demand profile.\ufffd It is noted that although demand projections and decommissioning profiles to 2050 are discussed, the 2019 IRP only provides an indicative generation build plan to 2030. This is attributed to technology uncertainties beyond that time frame."


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"The LEDS is available at\f  of the most coal-dependent in the world, and features a large stock of high-carbon infrastructure, particularly in the energy sector. South Africa is also fortunately blessed with abundant renewable energy resources, and developments in the economics of renewable energy technologies over the last decade are very favourable to low-carbon development in the country, but a well-resourced just transition strategy will be needed to shift to low-carbon technologies, to maximize benefits and minimize adverse impacts on communities, workers and the economy."


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"The LEDS planning process provides a space for Parties to use to reflect upon how their national plans can achieve emissions pathways consistent with the Paris Agreement, within their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities. While the timelines, targets and sectorial details of the transformation will vary by country, the expectation is that all targets should follow a downward trajectory."


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"The Market Demand Strategy aims to create a more balanced and appropriate market between road and rail freight transport, thereby reducing overloading of the road network and road infrastructure deterioration and contributing to a reduction in GHGs associated with rail transport.  In September 2010 a CO2 tax was introduced on the selling price of new motor vehicles that exceed a certain emissions limit, in order to increase the move towards lower emissions vehicles."


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"The Minister of the Environment and Minister responsible for planning monitoring and Evaluation in the Presidency co-chair meetings Coordinate and align climate change response efforts, including statutory and regulatory needs Intergovernmental Committee on Climate Change (IGCCC): Consists of relevant national, provincial departments and local government Operationalise cooperative governance on the climate change issues Ministers and Members of Executive Councils (MINMEC) and the Ministerial Technical Advisory Body (MINTECH): Facilitate a high level of policy and strategy coherence among the three spheres of government \ufffd national, provincial and local government Guide climate change work across the three spheres of government National Committee on Climate Change (NCCC): Multi-stakeholder Committee Consult with stakeholders from key sectors that impact on or are impacted by climate change \ufffd academia, business, NGOs, labour, government and civil society Advise on matters relating to national responsibilities Advise on the implementation of climate change- related activities In addition to the institutional arrangements, training and capacity building that will be required to support the transition at the national government level, infrastructure and skills will need to be developed at the sub-national"


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"The NCCAS is aligned with the country\u2019s policy and legislation, building on principles contained therein, including international agreements South Africa is party to. Relevant domestic legislation and policy include the National Climate Change Response Policy (NCCRP) (DEA 2011a), National Development Plan (NDP) (NPC 2011), National Strategy for Sustainable Development (NSSD) (DEA 2011b), sector adaptation strategies/plans, as well as provincial and municipal adaptation strategies/plans."


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"The NCCAS is grounded in the South African Constitution, particularly Section 24, of the Bill of Rights which includes, the right to a safe and healthy environment. The draft Climate Change Bill provides a legislative basis for the implementation of the NCCAS, as such will foster institutional coherence and enhance climate change adaptation governance across the spheres, national and sub-national layers of government in South Africa. The global average temperature reached 1.2oC above pre-industrial levels in 20203."


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"The NCCAS will serve as South Africa\u2019s National Adaptation Plan and fulfils South Africa\u2019s commitment to its obligations in terms of Article 7.9 of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). It will further provide\f  a policy instrument in which national climate change adaptation objectives for the country can be articulated to provide overarching guidance to all sectors of the economy in implementing adaptation."


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"The NCCAS, having been developed post the conclusion of the 2015 Paris Agreement and its Work Programme adopted in 2018, is aligned with the Paris Agreement\u2019s Article 7 and the associated aspects of the Paris Rulebook. The Strategy further outlines nine strategic objectives to which sectoral responses need to be aligned. The NCCAS, therefore, is the key domestic policy instrument to guide implementation, and informs this update to South Africa\u2019s first A-NDC (RSA 2016)."


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"The NCCRP provides guiding principles and will form the basis for the integrative NAP focused on vulnerable sectors and geographic vulnerabilities.  Integrate flexible adaptation sector policies and measures into national and sub-national policy frameworks to enable implementation of climate change adaptation programmes and projects. Sector adaptation plans will be integrated into broader sector plans consistent with relevant sector planning or regulatory legislation.  National and sub-national policy and legislation development and budget reprioritisation to enable institutional capability to plan and implement catalytic adaptation programmes and projects."


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"The NDC targets will be accounted for on the basis of national GHG inventories for the relevant years (2025 and 2030) compiled and submitted to the UNFCCC under the Paris Agreement with South Africa\u2019s Biennial Transparency Reports, in accordance with Article 13 of the Paris Agreement and decision 18/CMA.1, and any subsequent relevant CMA decisions. Target levels have been set considering that these will be accounted for using GWP values as specified in the Annex to decision 18/CMA.1, from the IPCC\u2019s 5th Assessment Report."


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"The NEES also identifies a set of measures to be implemented in each sector to achieve the stated targets. The Post-2015 NEES makes provision for a review every five years. \ufffd Support for increased uptake of Solar Water Heaters: Solar Water Heaters (SWH) partially offset use of electricity for water heating in middle- and high-income households, and can service low-income households that did not previously have ready access to hot water or used fuels other than electricity for water heating."


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"The National Adaptation Strategy also outlines a set of six strategic interventions that will contribute to the vision of a climate resilient South Africa. The interventions and target outcomes are shown in Table 1."


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"The National Planning Commission (NPC) is currently undertaking a process to develop a common vision for the country in 2050. This vision will be instrumental in driving harmonisation of government plans and policies and so in order to make these more aligned with the methodological elements of developing a LEDS presented in Section 1.4, it is important that the NPC process and the vision it develops takes into account the Paris goals."


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"The PPD trajectory range is an ambitious and fair effort in the context of national circumstances, and priorities to eliminate poverty and inequality, promote inclusive economic growth and reduce unemployment. It presents a trajectory that is consistent with a just transition to a low carbon and climate-resilient future.  South Africa is committed to a response to climate change based on science and equity, which has informed this INDC and will continue to inform our climate change response."


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"The Paris Agreement The international community has a long history of working to address the climate challenge. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted in 1992 to \"stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system\". All 197 member states of the UN are parties to the Convention, and South Africa ratified the Convention in August 1997."


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"The Paris Agreement in its Article 2 and 7.1 provides for increasing the ability to adapt to the adverse impact of climate change in line with the goals towards limiting global average temperature increases; the agreement further in Article 7.2 recognizes the global nature of the adaptation responsibility. In this respect, Africa and South Africa, are warming at a rate that is above twice the global average temperature increase (Wolski 2019)."


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"The Paris Agreement specifies that support be provided to developing countries in relation to mitigation (Article 4.5, \u201crecognizing that enhanced support for developing country Parties will allow for higher ambition in their actions\u201d), the conservation and enhancement of sinks (Article 5.1), adaptation (Article 7.13), loss and damage (Article 8.3) and transparency (Articles 13.14 and 13.15), through the provision of finance (Article 9), technology development and transfer (Article 10) and capacity-building (Article 11)."


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"The Policy presents a vision for an effective climate change response and the long-term transition to a climate- resilient, equitable and internationally competitive low carbon economy and society. This vision is premised on government\ufffds commitment to sustainable development and a better life for all. In support of achieving these objectives and achieving the vision, the Policy outlines a strategic approach to both mitigation and adaptation."


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"The Policy was the culmination of an iterative and participatory policy development process started in October 2005, that involved a wide range of stakeholders, including national departments, provincial and local governments, parastatals, academia, research institutions, business, civil society and labour. Climate Change Bill The South African government is finalising its Climate Change Bill. Upon adoption, the Bill will form the legislative foundation for the climate change adaptation and mitigation response."


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"The Public Transport Strategy of 2007 set out an action plan for accelerated modal shifts and for the development of integrated rapid public transport networks (DoT, 2007). Since then, the successful implementation of the bus rapid transport (BRT) system in Johannesburg has led to it being adapted and implemented in other major South African cities, including Cape Town, Rustenburg, Ekurhuleni and Tshwane, with further roll-outs being planned. In 2018 the Green Transport Strategy (GTS) for 2018 to 2050 was launched (DoT, 2018)."


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"The SJRPs will be tailored to address the job losses in each sector, together with future opportunities. All policy measures targeting the low carbon transition should be aligned with the fulfilment of the country\ufffds developmental objectives, which include alleviating poverty and reducing inequality, creating sustainable jobs and increasing the provision of basic services to all South Africans. In addition, specific policies and interventions will be required to support vulnerable communities in particular locations and scales, at particular times."


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"The Science of 1.5\u00b0C and what it means for the Paris goals At the time of adoption of the Paris Agreement there was limited scientific literature available regarding the goal of 1.5\u00b0C, making it difficult for Parties to gauge the effort required of their NDCs to achieve it. Parties therefore invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 \u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, and the related global greenhouse gas emission pathways."


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"The South African government is committed to ensuring that the transition is just; that its negative impacts are not disproportionally borne by the most vulnerable poor and working-class communities who are simultaneously bearing the brunt of the physical impacts of climate change. To ensure that government\ufffds commitment to a just transition is realised will require a clear vision around which the various initiatives, policies, sectors, geographical areas and communities can organize."


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"The South African government thus regards climate change as a considerable threat to the country and its socio-economic development. At the same time, if climate change is to be limited through limiting the growth in global GHG emissions, with South Africa contributing its fair share to emission reductions, there will be other implications for the country. As one of the top 20 global emitters, with a high dependency on fossil fuels, substantial emission cuts will be required."


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"The Strategy aims to support reductions in the contribution of the transport sector to national greenhouse gas emissions through interventions that include local electric vehicle and battery production and roll out of solar powered charging stations; continued use of fuel economy norms and standards for fuel efficiency and GHG emissions of vehicles; and facilitating a shift of freight from road to rail. In September 2010 a CO2 tax was introduced on the selling price of new motor vehicles that exceed a certain emissions limit."


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"The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) were adopted in 2015, the same year as the Paris Agreement, and include urgent action to combat climate  1 \u201cUpdating\u201d means updating the information in our NDC, to account for developments during the last five years since it was submitted; and \u201cenhancing\u201d means increasing the ambition of our NDC. We use the term \u201cupdate\u201d here to refer to both.\f  change and its impacts. The context of development is critical to implementing and achieving climate goals in South Africa and elsewhere."


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"The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosure has created a common language for considering both physical and transition risk related to climate change. It is important that the recommendations of the Task Force be mainstreamed into the South African financial sector to ensure that these risks are understood and managed, to provide the information required to effectively deploy finance in a climate compatible way (TCFD, 2017)."


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"The adaptation communication provides detailed information on South Africa\u2019s planned contribution to the global adaptation goal during the NDC period, anticipated climate impacts, a description of our recently- approved National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, and details of planned adaptation actions over the next decades and their associated costs for key areas of the economy that are likely to be most impacted by climate change (health, agriculture and forestry, human settlements, biodiversity, and water)."


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"The adverse effects of climate change have been a stark reality for South Africa for many years. The evidence clearly emphasises the need for Parties to build resilience and adaptive capacity to understand and respond to climate change risk and vulnerability, through developing and optimising climate change adaptation policy, planning, technology, practice and implementation coherence of developmental programmes and actions."


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"The allocation of the SETs will be based on the socio- economic benefits of introducing the Sectoral Emissions Targets; the best available science, evidence and information; and the mitigation options available to the sector. SETs will be determined for three rolling five-year periods."


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"The allowances include those on fugitive emissions; for trade exposure; for performance above the industry benchmark; for purchasing offsets; and for voluntarily being allocated a (non-enforceable) carbon budget. The allowances bring the effective tax rate to between ZAR 6 and ZAR 48 per tonne. Post-2020, the carbon tax and the carbon budgeting system (discussed in Section 4.6.3 below) will be aligned. This may include the option of imposing a higher tax rate as a penalty for emissions exceeding the carbon budget."


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"The analysis reviewed relevant literature and drew on two publicly available tools. First, the independent Climate Equity Reference Calculator (CERC) was used, on account of its transparency, ease of access and usability, as well as its alignment with the equity principles South Africa values and prioritises \u2013 taking into account responsibility and capability, as well as the right to promote sustainable development and the need to prioritise development for those living in poverty."


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"The basis for South Africa\u2019s NDC is the assumption that support will be provided for the implementation of the targets and goals specified above, for mitigation, adaptation and loss and damage. South Africa expects developed countries to continue to provide and mobilize climate finance and to support country-driven strategies, consistent with Article 9. South Africa will require support for a just transition towards net zero CO2."


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"The bulk of international climate finance was in the form of grants, with only US$ 950,000 (0.5%) originating from multilateral loans (DEA, 2019c). Formalising climate finance structures While South Africa has made great strides in understanding its mitigation and adaptation challenge, and particularly in understanding the availability and attractiveness of mitigation policies and measures and the ways these will have to be combined to meet its international climate commitments, it has not been successful in accessing climate finance on a transformational scale."


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"The bulk of the country\ufffds natural gas demand is, however, met through imports from Mozambique\ufffds Temane and Pande gas fields. The gas is imported via a high-pressure pipeline and supplied to Sasol and other industrial and commercial customers mainly within Gauteng Province. The finalisation of the Gas Utilisation Master Plan, which has been under development for a number of years, will help to provide policy certainty on the role that gas will play in the energy mix moving into the future."


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"The challenge of incorporating this rapid transformation into country plans must be resolved in a nationally determined manner. Developed countries, which have committed to take the lead, must rapidly change the nature of their investments both nationally and internationally to avoid locking in emissions. At the same time, the scale of the reductions required means developing countries must also start to implement transformational changes."


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"The climate change M&E system,\f  however, is still under development and monitoring and reporting activities will only be automated during the final phase of implementation (2021-2025) (DEA, 2017; DEA, 2019c). At present climate finance is therefore being tracked on an ad hoc basis via informal engagements between the Department of Environmental Affairs and the National Treasury. The national climate finance strategy will formalise local climate finance governance, coordination and reporting structures."


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"The climate finance strategy will also seek to understand why South Africa has not been successful in attracting more climate finance, and will attempt to significantly increase the amount of climate finance flowing to South Africa. As part of this process, a 5-year high-level climate finance implementation plan will be developed that will include a pipeline of financeable projects."


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"The climate finance that has been accessed is concentrated in two entities, and this creates risks in terms of the long-term certainty of flows and climate governance and independence. To address this shortcoming, South Africa is developing a comprehensive climate finance strategy."


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"The columns in Table 1 provide information as follows: \u2022 Elements - these correspond to the elements of the Annex to decision 9/CMA.1 on \u201cElements of an adaptation communication\u201d \u2022 Undertaking for the period 2021-2030 \u2013 these goals comprise South Africa\u2019s contribution to the global goal for adaptation, in light of the country\u2019s projected risk and vulnerability for the period \u2022 Assumptions / Methodology / Context \u2013 contextual information, including any further information on methodological approaches and assumptions \u2022 Efforts \u2013 actions to be taken / measures to be implemented in achieving the goals outlined in the \u201cundertakings\u201d column \u2022 Adaptation investment \u2013 total national estimated investments required to adapt to climate change and repair damages induced by climate change and associated extreme events."


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"The constant application of transformative action will drive large volumes of investment towards transformational change. Perseverance on the application of all aspects of change will be required to avoid imbalances or injustices which will compromise the change, and sectors which achieve important milestones must not be allowed to become complacent, but rather contribute to the broader change by supporting areas of natural synergy. Examples of activities that might be taken during the three phases of implementation of the transition are shown in the Table below."


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"The contribution of domestic climate finance is also likely to increase further given the broad- based carbon tax that was put in place during 2019. International support is also highly concentrated in the form of one bilateral and one multilateral development partner for the period under consideration. Germany contributed 55% of bilateral and 43% of total international climate finance to South Africa, while the Global Environment Facility accounted for 93% of multilateral and 20% of total international climate finance."


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"The corresponding figures are similar for RCP4.5 (medium-high mitigation): no change is projected in terms of the median of costs, but a 31% increase is projected in terms of the 90th percentile. For the period 2021-2050, the median of year-costs is projected to be 12% more expensive than the 1971-2000 value under low mitigation, with a 132% increase in the cost of extreme years (90th percentiles)."


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"The current situation, however, provides and unprecedented opportunity to avoid long-term carbon lock-in and significantly accelerate a just transition to a low carbon and inclusive economy. South Africa has a number of features that make it attractive as a destination for climate finance. The country has a well-developed financial system and a history of developing and rolling out innovative instruments for raising and deploying donor, public and private sector climate finance."


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"The decisive change of operating technologies requires a concerted, planned effort if it is to occur in an economically rational manner over such a short timeframe. The timing dimension is crucial. While 2050 may seem a long way off for citizens going about their daily life, or indeed in terms of changing government administrations, the speed of technological change is determined by the lifetime of assets and their rate of replacement."


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"The domestic financial sector should play a pivotal role in terms of helping investors in adaptation space to satisfy funding requirements to meet the NDC goals. Direct unilateral access to advance adaptation finance by the private sector is still a major major issue.  The National Treasury, South African Reserve Bank, financial sector regulators and Department of Forestry and Environment (DFFE) work collaboratively on issues of Sustainable finance initiatives in the sphere of private finance."


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"The driver of this trend is the collective effect of global emissions, as such South Africa and the African continent bear a disproportionate share of the adaptation burden, both because of the uneven global distribution of climate impacts and because of the skewed historical responsibility for GHG emissions."


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"The driver of this trend is the collective effect of global emissions, as such South Africa and the African continent bear a disproportionate share of the adaptation burden, both because of the uneven global distribution of climate impacts, and because of the skewed historical responsibility for GHG emissions."


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"The final rollout stage follows during which climate-compatible modalities are fully adopted in all sectors, and implemented continuously to achieve the transformation through ongoing technology\f  replacement. The benefits of economies of scale and the global transition will provide a positive feedback to the rollout, making Paris-compatible options the most viable throughout this stage. South Africa LEDS \ufffd a living document This document presents South Africa\ufffds first Low Emission Development Strategy (SA-LEDS) generated after the adoption of the Paris Agreement."


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"The finance and investments are required to enable and support the deployment of low carbon and adaptation technology as well as building the capacity to govern, regulate, install and operate these technologies.  South Africa has already investing about 6% of what would be the upper end of the costs of its adaptation per annum for the period 2021 to 2030."


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"The first of these is South African National Standard (SANS) 204 \ufffd Energy Efficiency in Buildings. This standard \ufffdspecifies the design requirements for energy efficiency in buildings and of services in buildings with natural environmental control and artificial ventilation or air conditioning systems.\ufffd The second, SANS 10400-XA \ufffd Energy Usage in Buildings, includes the provisions of SANS 204 and others, providing a standard for energy efficient buildings."


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"The first phase of the Carbon Budgets, which runs from 2016 to 2020, is currently being implemented, with the allocation of company-level Carbon Budgets for a small group of companies. This phase is voluntary as there is no legal basis to set emission limits for sectors or companies. The second and subsequent phases (i.e. the post- 2020 period) will become mandatory when the Climate Change Bill is formally approved by government."


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"The first step will thus be to ensure national targets are aligned with the Paris Agreement. Thereafter, planning teams with analytical and sectoral expertise will engage in detailed scenario work to develop transformation pathways towards achieving the national targets. Building a scenario is, however, not enough to plan for its delivery. The work of translating such a plan to policy is a challenge which all Parties will have to grapple with over the coming months and years."


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"The fiscal strategy must therefore form its own pathway to 2050, balancing the needs of the transformation, economic and social development, with the viability of private sector companies and the state. Providing broad access to funds Access to funds in sufficient volume to meet the investment needs across a broad range of activities will be crucial to the success of our efforts to tackle climate change. Significant work is already underway to illustrate this need and help facilitate such access."


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"The four key principles that underpin the approach are that actions need to be: \ufffd Needs driven and customised: Employ a wide range of adaptation and mitigation approaches, policies, measures, programmes interventions and actions, including those that meet the special needs and circumstances of those most vulnerable; \ufffd Developmental: Prioritise climate change responses that have both mitigation and adaptation benefits and that also have significant economic growth, job creation, public health, risk management and poverty alleviation benefits; \ufffd Transformational, empowering and participatory: Include policies and measures to address climate change at a scale that enables and supports the required level of innovation, sector and skills development, finance and investment flows needed to realise the full benefit of a transition to a low carbon, efficient, job-creating, equitable and competitive economy; dynamic and evidence-based; and \ufffd Balanced and cost effective: Incorporate a balanced approach to both climate change mitigation and adaptation responses in terms of cost-benefit, prioritisation, focus, action and resource allocation; and provide for the integration of sector-related climate change responses into the relevant sector planning processes and their developmental policies"


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"The goals submitted herein (see Table 1 below) are largely informed by the strategic objectives of the NCCAS.and are consistent with elements of decision 9/CMA.1."


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"The implementation of technologies with potential for contribution to emissions reductions in the industrial sector is also supported by various tax incentives, contained in the Income Tax Act. Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU) Mitigation actions identified in the AFOLU sector include Policies and Measures developed by line departments including the Department of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries (DAFF)1."


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"The implementation of the national Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) will lead to conservation of forest carbon stocks, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of the forest carbon stocks. Protecting and preserving existing carbon stocks in other ecosystems (those with high organic soil carbon, wetlands and some grasslands) is also identified as a mitigation priority."


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"The importance of circular economy thinking in guiding the Waste Phakisa initiatives was noted. A circular economy framing has positive benefits in terms of reducing greenhouse gases.\f  Mitigation in the waste sector \ufffd The actions contained in NEM:WA provide a framework for implementation of actions that have the potential to reduce emissions from both the waste and other sectors such as electricity supply, industry and transport. The outcomes of the Waste Phakisa provide quantitative targets for implementation of these actions, albeit over the short term."


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"The incentives provided will have to be coherent with the long-term development pathway in order to ensure short-term mitigation actions do not lead to emissions lock-in, nor a boost for assets which may become stranded later. Fossil fuels subsidies and incentives which have the effect of fostering inefficient management of resources such as water, food, fertilizers, or public goods should be reviewed to support the transition to cleaner development."


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"The information on investments estimated in energy and economic models indicate relatively small impacts on GDP. Other socio-economic implications, notably any negative impacts on employment, need to be avoided and will be studied empirically as further mitigation measures are put in place. Current analysis of investments in renewable energy projects shows that these have a positive impact on the economy. Such analysis should further provide enhanced information through financial analysis and specific investment proposals."


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"The just transition in South Africa will require international cooperation and support. In the first NDC, South Africa identified various technologies that could help us to further reduce emissions."


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"The key challenge during the implementation periods of this first NDC (2021 to 2025, and 2026 to 2030) will be the transition in the electricity sector, seeking early investment in and preparing for mitigation in harder-to-mitigate sectors, and addressing the economic and social consequences resulting from this transition in coal- producing areas. South Africa\u2019s electricity is currently mostly provided by a number of large coal plants located in the Mpumalanga province, where most of the country\u2019s coal resources are to be found."


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"The knock-on effects on human populations include health risks due to increasing temperatures and heatwaves, water shortages, food insecurity, increased spread of diseases and pests as well as damage to infrastructure due to extreme weather events. All of these impacts have economic repercussions (IPCC, 2014). The severity of impacts is not only a function of the magnitude and rate of warming that is experienced, but also geographic location and levels of development and vulnerability."


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"The latter suggests the start of the process of relative decoupling economic growth from GHG emissions, which is as a result of increased energy efficiency, investment in renewable energy and a shift in economic growth to less energy- intensive sectors. South Africa aims to capitalise on the national and global shift to the green economy, through green industrialisation and by creating new opportunities for South Africa\u2019s rich mineral endowment, many of which are vital for low emission and climate resilient development."


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"The least developed countries and small island developing States may prepare and communicate strategies, plans and actions for low greenhouse gas emissions development reflecting their special circumstances.\u201d) Not applicable, since South Africa is neither a least developed country, nor a small island developing state. 7."


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"The levy has grown incrementally over time, and offers an established instrument that government could use for ratcheting up ambition in the transport sector.  Mitigation in the transport sector \ufffd The Green Transport Strategy provides a comprehensive framework for introducing a wide range of interventions that can help to drive cleaner, lower emissions mobility in the sector. \ufffd Other instruments that will be leveraged to support emissions reductions in this sector include the Public Transport Strategy and the CO2 tax on vehicles."


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"The majority of these passenger kilometers will be provided by zero-emissions vehicles/platforms, with energy supplied from renewable sources. The availability of sustainable bioenergy and biomaterials will be limited by global constraints of forest coverage, biodiversity, and food security. These products must be channeled to applications with limited alternatives (such as long-haul aviation), reducing their potential availability as a drop-in substitute for fossil fuels in the bulk of traditional power, energy, or transport applications."


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"The mitigation component of the NDC has been updated consistent with our latest GHG inventory in terms of coverage, scope and methodological approaches. South Africa communicated its latest National Inventory Report (NIR) (reporting emissions for the year 2000-2017) as part of its Fourth Biennial Update Report, with one notable exception, noted below in respect of the land sector."


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"The mitigation component of this update of South Africa\u2019s first NDC is our contribution to the long- term goal for mitigation, as stated in Article 4.1: \u201cIn order to achieve the long-term temperature goal set out in Article 2, Parties aim to reach global peaking of greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible, recognizing that peaking will take longer for developing country Parties, and to undertake rapid reductions thereafter in accordance with best available science, so as to achieve a balance between anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in the second half of this century, on the basis of equity, and in the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty.\u201d Parties agreed in Paris that this goal is to inform the preparation of NDCs (decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 20)."


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"The mitigation components of the strategic approach were later captured in the Climate Change Bill, as discussed in Section 2.3.3 below."


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"The most recent revision of the IPAP, which covers the period 2018/19 to 2020/21, provides updates on key focus areas within the industrial sector, one of which is green industry investment."


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"The national records on expenditure on adaptation, within the past five year period, reflect that the country spent approximately USD 6 billion on adaptation efforts. This includes expenditure on national and provincial programs on adaptation and extreme events responses. In particular: \u2022The National core sub-programs adaptation spent for the period 2015 \u2013 2020 is USD 3.1 billion. \u2022The provincial core sub-programs adaptation spent for the period 2017 \u2013 2020 is USD 2.9 billion."


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"The overall target will therefore be accounted for by comparing the target value with the GHG emissions total without the land sector (excluding categories 3B and 3D), plus the values for these categories excluding emissions from natural disturbances, which will be reported separately for each corresponding land sector category, in the NIRs accompanying South Africa\u2019s Biennial Transparency Reports."


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"The overwhelming majority of this support was provided for mitigation projects. South Africa\u2019s key goal for its updated first NDC is to access significantly higher levels of climate finance during the periods of implementation of the first NDC, with a view to achieving a floor of USD 8 billion per year by 2030. This is in line with Article 4.3 of the Convention and Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement."


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"The paper recognises the role of a circular economy in driving the shift to a green economy by accelerating eco-innovation. A range of existing research activities are already setting the basis for the low carbon transition."


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"The planning approach presented in Section 6 allows for a staged approach to building up the necessary policy environment, drive investment, and train a diverse workforce while supporting entrepreneurial activity. Coupling this planning with sectoral scenario analyses will help identify concrete areas of opportunity, for which additional work will be required to fully flesh out plans. Ensuring a just transition with jobs for all South Africa\ufffds transition to a low-carbon society and economy will have uneven socio-economic impacts."


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"The policy instruments under development include a carbon tax, desired emission reduction outcomes (DEROs) for sectors, company- level carbon budgets, as well as regulatory standards and controls for specifically identified GHG pollutants and emitters.  South Africa will use five-year periods of implementation at the national level, specifically, 2016-2020 focused on developing and demonstrating the above mix of policies and measures in order to meet South Africa\u2019s\fCancun pledge, and the periods 2021-2025 and 2026-2030 for this INDC."


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"The priority sectors are health, water, biodiversity, agriculture and human settlements.  Water sector: enhance water security; effectively deploy flood protection measures, and hydro-metrological monitoring systems. Agriculture: development of early warning systems for small scale farmers; and supporting climate-smart agriculture. The development of a multi-hazard early warning system; capacity building for the farming sector on climate change; and full implementation of a climate- smart agriculture framework should be prioritised. Health: monitoring, surveillance and early warning systems for climate-induced diseases."


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"The priority sectors are identified as, biodiversity and ecosystems; water; health; energy; settlements (coastal, urban, rural); disaster risk reduction, transport infrastructure, mining, fisheries, forestry and agriculture. The NCCAS identifies interventions that are used as the basis for meeting South Africa\u2019s obligations to meet and outlined adaptation goals. The interventions address both highly vulnerable sectors as well as geographic areas.  The NDC will prioritise specific sectors and work towards the development of climate response plans to address the specific sector priorities."


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"The private sector action is being driven by a growth in understanding of the business opportunities, local and global market pressure and existing and forthcoming legislation. Actions range from adopting new products and processes to new service offerings to retrofitting of existing operations to make them more energy efficient and less emissions intensive. With suitable support this growth in action will continue."


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"The process for updating SA\u2019s first NDC had five parts: technical analysis (UCT 2021b; CSIR 2021), consultation within government, consultation with broader stakeholders, provincial public stakeholder workshops, and finalisation in government and Cabinet. Public consultation and participation: DFFE conducted stakeholder consultations by way of a hybrid model (due to challenges brought about by the COVID pandemic) using in-person consultations and virtual participation in all nine provinces, accessible to local government and undertaken in a gender-responsive manner."


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"The projected changes in temperature extremes put additional strain on the health system, including the increasing burden of disease, and affect aspects such as infrastructure, services, availability of medicines and medical supplies and emergency services. Vulnerability and risk assessment for the health sector positions subgroups such as the elderly and children as the most vulnerable to temperature extremes. It especially recognizes rural livelihoods and outdoor labour, including women, as the most exposed to extreme temperature hazards leading to adverse effects such as heat stroke."


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"The rapid transition that will be required presents a potential risk to economic growth and sustainable development if not managed properly. Through the Paris Agreement, Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have agreed to limit \ufffdthe increase in the global average temperature to well below 2\u00b0C above pre- industrial levels, and pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels\ufffd."


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"The recently published Draft South African State of Waste Report shows that around 42 Mt of general waste was generated in South Africa in 2017 (DEA, 2018a). Only about 11% of this was recycled, with the remainder being disposed of to landfill. Several landfills in the eight larger metropolitan areas are close to reaching their available air space or have already reached their limits. Rapid urbanisation and high costs of building new engineered landfills has led to less suitable landfill space being available."


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"The recently-released IPCC 6th Assessment Report\u2019s Working Group I Report found that that global temperature in the last decade is already 1.09 [0.95 to 1.20] \u00b0C higher than preindustrial levels, due to 2390 \u00b1 240 Gt CO2 emitted historically. We note that there is still no internationally-agreed equity reference framework, with takes into account historical emissions and responsibility for the future."


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"The resulting electricity supply mix in 2030 is shown in Figure 7.  Figure 7: Share of installed capacity in the 2019 IRP in MW5 Through regular updates to the IRP, and making early commitments to deep transformation of the sector post 2030, ambition can be increased. However, including new coal-fired power stations in the build plan will result in further lock-in to carbon intensive electricity supply, or the potential for stranded assets in the sector."


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"The risk to biodiversity is expected to increase in future, as explained by various projected climatic variables in the form of increased fire frequency and severity, erratic rainfall and increased evaporative demand on account of elevated temperatures. These are compounded by land use and exchange patterns. Limpopo, Western Cape, Mpumalanga, Free State and KwaZulu Natal provinces experienced the highest biodiversity loss. The highest risk of biodiversity loss has been evident both currently and in future in these provinces."


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"The role of sub-national government and the private sector In addition to the policies and measures being implemented by national government, sub-national government and the private sector also have a role to play in achieving the vision of SA-LEDS. Sub-national government Many of the sub-national (provincial and local) government departments are already undertaking activities that contribute to the national mitigation, adaptation and resilience efforts."


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"The role which the constituted bodies and other bodies under the UNFCCC and its Paris Agreement, supported by the UNFCCC Secretariat, play in providing support to the implementation of climate policy in developing countries will be critical if developing countries are to implement their NDCs effectively over the next decade."


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"The second standard, SANS 10400-XA \ufffd Energy Usage in Buildings includes the provisions of SANS 204 and other standards, towards providing a standard for energy efficient buildings.  Energy efficiency in buildings \ufffd South Africa has standards, supported by legislation, to govern energy efficiency of buildings. These standards are based on global best practice, but adapted to local context. However, capacity building and training of local councils is critical to ensure compliance with the standards."


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"The section also contains information on the extent of risk and vulnerability, recognition of how South Africa\u2019s has responded to efforts towards addressing the impacts of climate change thus far, as South Africa\u2019s contribution to the global adaptation goal. The section further outlines the adaptation priorities for South Africa, ranging from policy, planning, enhancing governance and implementation of adaptation programmes. 2. Context:,national,priorities,and,circumstances,, South Africa\u2019s NDC will be implemented in a context in which significant development challenges need to be addressed."


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"The sectors or sub-sectors to which SETs are allocated are still being defined, but will be aligned with the IPCC (2006) emissions categories to facilitate alignment with other GHG reporting. Individual national government departments will be tasked with developing and implementing Policies and Measures (PAMs) to ensure emissions from within a sector or sub-sector remain within SET limits."


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"The shift away from coal that IRP 2019 requires, will require support in the form of transition finance, and associated technology and capacity-building. In addition, South Africa will invest in energy efficiency, a range of green transport measures including electric and hybrid\f  vehicles, mode shifting and the enhanced provision of safe and affordable public transport. All of these measures will be accompanied by just transition programmes to ensure that the costs of these measures to workers and communities are minimised and the benefits maximized."


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"The stakeholder\f  Provisions and sub-provisions of Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1 Information provided in respect of the updated South African NDC consultations were launched at the National Climate Change Committee, and the NDC was presented to the Presidential Climate Commission; and to stakeholders across business, labour and civil society, including women and youth constituencies. Plans implemented since 2015 are outlined in section 2 above. (ii) Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate: a."


id: f8c71dec4907de8698b41d6381b0356b
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"The starting point for PPD considered here is 2020 year-end. Time frames and / or periods for implementation The time-frames within the PPD trajectory range that are communicated in South Africa\u2019s INDC are 2025 and 2030, in which emissions will be in a range between 398 and 614 Mt CO2\u2013eq.  The INDC reflects SA\u2019s full mitigation potential as assessed in 2014."


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"The stated vision for SA-LEDS is as follows:\f  \ufffdSouth Africa follows a low-carbon growth trajectory while making a fair contribution to the global effort to limit the average temperature increase, while ensuring a just transition and building of the country\ufffds resilience to climate change\ufffd."


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"The strategy will take a holistic view of climate finance activities and will cover all aspects of climate finance, including: the quantum of climate finance required; identifying stakeholders and activities along the climate finance value-chain; increasing climate finance flows from different types of finance providers (e.g. bilateral finance, multilateral finance, domestic public finance and private sector finance), monitoring and evaluation, and climate finance governance structures. The strategy will ensure that climate finance frameworks are compatible with local conditions and ambition."


id: 57c7d4aa559c7538b0f56ea7f246baef
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"The system thereby provides an opportunity for entities to plan ahead. \ufffd Phasing out of inefficient fossil fuel subsidies/incentives: As a member of the G20, where countries have committed to phasing out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, South Africa has indicated willingness to identify and minimise their harmful impacts, taking cognisance of its developmental state."


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"The target range for 2026-2030 may be updated when SA communicates its second NDC in 2025, in accordance with relevant decisions and provisions of the Paris Agreement, and in response to changes in the GHG inventory, its national circumstances, and to the latest science, the 2023 global stocktake, and the availability of support for implementation. South Africa will account for its first NDC in accordance with the guidance contained in Annex II to decision 4/CMA.1."


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"The tax structure will be revised post-2021 to align with the proposed mandatory carbon budgets. \ufffd Sectoral Emissions Targets (SETs): The national emissions trajectory will be translated into Sectoral Emission Targets or SETs, which are quantitative greenhouse gas emission targets allocated to an emitting sector or sub-sector, over a defined time period. Individual national government departments will be tasked with developing and implementing Policies and Measures (PAMs) to ensure emissions from within a sector or sub-sector remain within SET limits."


id: 80b2cdc4cbe7161fc37e3dff1bfdd389
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"The tax window runs up to 31 December 2020, in line with termination of the second commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol; \ufffd Section 12L provides for a tax incentive to support implementation of energy savings. Since its inception in 2013, major benefits have been realised in terms of energy savings of approximately 5.9 GWh, with associated avoidance of GHG emissions, through a spend of ZAR 3 billion by government. Major beneficiaries have been the mining and manufacturing subsectors."


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"The total investment in adaptation therefore increased from US$ 1.64 bn in 2010 to US$ 2.31 bn in 2015. Some of the key programmes that will have to be scaled up further, include: 1. Working for Water (WfW) and Working on Fire estimated at US$1.2 bn per year. 2. Working on Wetlands estimated at US$0.12 bn per year. 3. Water Conservation and Demand Management estimated at US$5.3 bn per year. 4. Land restoration estimated at US$0.07 bn per year."


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"The trade sector is made up\f  of several divisions, including retail and wholesale, motor, accommodation and catering, food and beverages (dti, 2017). The remaining sectors contributing towards the economy are finance, real estate and business services, government services, personal services and construction (dti, 2017). Finance real estate and business services in particular continue to contribute positively to GDP growth."


id: e7c719487cc382dbdbd4f5d179fd6d95
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"The transition will bring about efficiencies, investment and growth, opening up many opportunities in new areas of activity. However, activity will also reduce in areas linked with GHG emissions, leading to declining operations, diminished returns for companies, and fewer jobs in specific sectors. Impacts will differ across scales, timeframes, and locations."


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"The two key objectives of the NCCRP are:  3 Note that this document was published as a white paper but is now considered as a policy document\f  \ufffd Effectively managing inevitable climate change impacts through interventions that build and sustain South Africa\ufffds social, economic and environmental resilience and emergency response capacity; and \ufffd Making a fair contribution to the global effort to stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that avoids dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system, within a timeframe that enables economic, social and environmental development to proceed in a sustainable manner."


id: f5bd8128c3709b9bc60a84e96e3dcbb9
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"The upper end of South Africa\u2019s target range for 2025 lies above the CERC 2 degree allocation (adjusted to include land use), and below the CERC 2 degree allocation for\f  Provisions and sub-provisions of Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1 Information provided in respect of the updated South African NDC 2030 (adjusted to include land use)."


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"The upper end of the target range in 2025 has been reduced by 17%, and the upper end of the target range in 2030 has been reduced by 32%, and the lower range by 12%. The range between upper and lower bounds narrows significantly, from 216 Mt to 112 Mt in 2025 and 70 Mt CO2-eq in 2030."


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"The vision being developed by the National Planning Commission (NPC), through a consultative, bottom-up process, will help to define such an end-state, together with pathways to achieve this in the key areas of land, water and energy. Appropriate and sufficiently resourced plans and policies will be necessary. International examples exist of initiatives to support workers and communities who currently depend on fossil fuel and other industries, on which the South African government can draw."


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"The water sector is likely to be impacted specifically in the south-western Cape and West Coast making lower priority water users (e.g. irrigation) more vulnerable. While groundwater supplies are generally more robust, warmer temperatures and lower river levels during drought are likely to lead to deteriorating water quality. The frequency of heavy precipitation events is also projected to increase in most of the country with increased chances of flooding risk."


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"The well-regarded Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme (REIPPPP), for example, managed to raise US$ 15.83 billion of finance for utility-scale renewable energy projects, 80% of which originated from domestic sources (IPPP Office, 2019).13 By the end of March 2019, the REIPPPP had procured 6,422 MW of capacity (3,976 MW of which had been connected to the national grid). 35,669 GWh of renewable electricity had been generated, saving 36.2 Mt of CO2 and 42.8 million kilolitres of water."


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"There is also some potential for small and micro scale hydropower.\f  South Africa s liquid fuels requirements are met through local refining of imported crude oil, sourced mainly from the Middle East and other African countries, through synthetic fuel produced from coal-to-liquids (CTL) and gas- to-liquids (GTL) processes and through refined product imports.  The six main liquid fuel producers are Sapref, Enref, Natref and Chevref (refining crude oil) and Sasol and PetroSA (producing synthetic fuels from coal and gas) (SAPIA, 2017)."


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"There is evidence that extreme weather events in South Africa are increasing, with heatwave conditions found to be more frequent, dry spell durations lengthening slightly, and rainfall intensity increasing. In the near future, average rainfall accumulation is expected to remain within historical ranges over most of South Africa, except for a decline over the Western Cape and some increases over the far eastern parts of Kwa-Zulu Natal. The country is projected to experience increased severity and frequency of drought in the central interior area."


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"Therefore, as the science of climate change evolves, and our understanding matures to permeate our public awareness and policy processes, we will adjust our strategy accordingly. This is a living document, and ongoing work will ensure adequate updates are brought forward at appropriate times."


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"Therefore, in the short-term (up to 2025), South Africa faces significant rigidity in its economy and any policy-driven transition to a low carbon and climate resilient society must take into account and emphasise its overriding priority to address poverty and inequality. South Africa\u2019s INDC should be understood in the context of these and other national circumstances."


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"These are not unique to South Africa and include, amongst others, a relatively high degree of risk aversion among local financial institutions, difficulty in accessing longer-term financing, credibility of off-takers, high transaction costs for smaller projects, relatively long pay-back periods and a lack of attractive large low carbon investment options, difficulty in raising financing for technologies that have not been proven locally, a lack of concessionary wholesale finance, uncertainty about future electricity prices, complexity and regulatory burden of environmental regulation, a lack of public sector capacity in key areas, and an investment environment that is not conducive to investment due to policy uncertainty (Nicholls et al, 2015; Cloete et al, 2016; Cloete et al, 2018)."


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"These are: \ufffd Enhancing the vision for development \ufffd Enhancing institutional capabilities and arrangements for the transition \ufffd Creating the right financial environment through aligning fiscal strategy with sustainable growth  \ufffd Providing broad access to funds \ufffd Driving innovation, research, and skills for future value capture \ufffd Ensuring a just transition with jobs for all\f  \ufffd Promoting sustainable development through education and culture \ufffd Enhancing information and metrics Each of these is elaborated upon in the sections that follow."


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"These are: \ufffd The National Development Plan (NDP) \ufffd The National Climate Change Response Policy (NCCRP) \ufffd The Climate Change Bill (forthcoming)  In addition to these three central documents, various strategies, policies and sector plans have been developed for individual sectors of the economy, which will all contribute to driving emission reductions."


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"These barriers, coupled with the scale of funding that is required to address mitigation and adaptation, means that there is a significant need for scaled-up international support to finance the transition to a climate-resilient inclusive low-carbon economy in South Africa. Positioning South Africa as an attractive destination for climate finance offers opportunities beyond enabling a transition to a just, sustainable and prosperous low carbon economy as discussed below."


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"These changes will impact on water resources and food production, and increase the vulnerability of impoverished communities, amongst others (DEA, 2013). For this reason, the South African government regards climate change as a considerable threat to the country and its socio-economic development, having the potential to undermine many of the advances made in recent years."


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"These documents Electricity generation Industry Transport Agriculture Commercial Residential Waste Carbon dioxide (CO2) Nitrous Oxide (N2O) HFCs, PFCs\f  are detailed in later sections to outline a set of discrete measures which serve as a starting point for implementation of the LEDS. National Development Plan 2030 The overarching objective of the National Development Plan 2030 (NDP) is to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030. Climate change impacts and mitigation are highlighted as critical issues throughout the document."


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"These include detailed studies on the impact of gas supply options on electricity supply, the appropriate level of penetration of RE in the South African national grid, the cost and economic benefits associated with other clean energy options as well as socio-economic impacts of communities affected by the decommissioning of coal fired power stations. Such activities can help contribute to low emissions transformation of the electricity sector in a manner that is informed, feasible and just."


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"These include detailed studies on the impact of gas supply options, the appropriate level of penetration of RE in the South African national grid,\f  the cost and economic benefits associated with other clean energy options as well as socio-economic impacts of communities affected by the decommissioning of coal fired power stations. \ufffd Developing robust data on the long-term implications of implementing mitigation policies and measures across the sectors, where such information does not exist. Notable here are the transport, waste and AFOLU sectors."


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"These include initiatives in training, re-tooling, relocation, early\f  retirement, and other forms of support.  A number of such initiatives are in the planning or pilot phase, led by various stakeholders. A broader macro-economic view is also important. Two key policy instruments are being developed to manage the just transition to a low carbon economy: the National Employment Vulnerability Assessment (NEVA), and Sector Jobs Resilience Plans (SJRPs). The NEVA will assess the employment characteristics of key economic sectors in the context of the low carbon transition."


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"These include the Adaptation Committee, the Adaptation Fund Board, the Executive Committee for the Warsaw Mechanism for Loss and Damage, the Consultative Group of Experts, the Katowice Committee of Experts on the Impacts of the Implementation of Response Measures, the Least Developed Countries Expert Group, the Facilitative Working Group of the Local Communities and Indigenous Peoples Platform, the Standing Committee on Finance, the Technology Executive Committee, the Paris Committee on Capacity-Building and bodies of the Financial Mechanism, including the Global Environment Facility and the Green Climate Fund."


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"These include the draft Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan for the South African Agricultural and Forestry sectors, the Conservation Agriculture Policy (DAFF, 2017b) and the Agroforestry Strategic Framework for South Africa (DAFF, 2017c)."


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"These include the draft Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Plan for the South African Agricultural and Forestry sectors, the Conservation Agriculture Policy and the Agroforestry Strategic Framework for South Africa.  1 Note that with a government restructure Forestry and Fisheries has now been combined with Environmental Affairs, while Agriculture has been combined with agriculture and the department of rural development and land reform. The implications of this restructuring on policy implementation has not yet been considered."


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"These include: \ufffd The Hydrogen South Africa (HySA) Research Programme, that aims to make South Africa a global player in fuel cell technology, through prototyping, demonstration and commercialisation of fuel cell technologies; \ufffd The Renewable Energy Hub and Spokes initiative aims to develop national technical capacity in wind, solar photovoltaic and solar thermal power. Research capacity is built at various universities throughout the country. Research focusses on specific individual components, as well as system design and production."


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"These initiatives are expected to scale the market for zero emission buildings and support the national pathway to net zero carbon buildings. The contribution of the private sector A diverse range of actions that contribute to GHG emissions mitigation is being seen across the private sector in South Africa, with significant gains having been made in certain sectors on both energy efficiency and emissions mitigation."


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"These methodologies can be further improved and will benefit from exchanges with others using similar methodologies.  3 National policy indicates that the national GHG Emissions Trajectory Range may be reviewed in the light of monitoring and evaluation results, technological advances or new science, evidence and information."


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"These numbers, however, cover all climate finance deployed, and are not comparable to the pledge by developed countries, first made at COP15 in Copenhagen, to provide US$ 100 billion of climate finance to developing countries by 2020. Timperley (2018) mentions that there is disagreement about how close this pledge is to being met."


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"These relate to: \ufffd Enhancing the vision for development, including revising the emissions trajectory to reflect a fair contribution to the global achievement of the Paris Agreement \ufffd Enhancing institutional capabilities and arrangements for the transition \ufffd Creating the right financial environment through aligning fiscal strategy with sustainable growth  \ufffd Providing broad access to funds \ufffd Driving innovation, research, and skills for future value capture \ufffd Ensuring a just transition with jobs for all \ufffd Promoting sustainable development through education and culture \ufffd Enhancing information and metrics Each of these is elaborated upon in the main body of the document."


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"These resources will be equally distributed balanced between adaptation and mitigation, in line with Article 9.4 of the Paris Agreement. Additional finance will be mobilized on this basis, including Article 9.3 of the Paris Agreement as well as other forms of support from bilateral and multilateral sources as required. 6. Equitable)access)to)sustainable)development) The core principles of equity, responsibility, capability and sustainable development are the basis of South Africa\u2019s first NDC. Equity relates to adaptation, mitigation and all forms of investment and support."


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"These stages are:\f  xvii \ufffd Starting Right (to be completed prior to end of 2021 financial year) \ufffd Turning the Corner (to begin in parallel with the Starting Right stage and continue to 2025) \ufffd Massive Rollout (2025 to 2050) \ufffdStarting Right\ufffd will focus on actions relating to the current government administration, or perhaps also address the initial years of the following one. The most important aspect of this stage is to ensure that a true transition is kicked off."


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"These stages are: \ufffd Starting Right (to be completed prior to end of 2021 financial year) \ufffd Turning the Corner (to begin in parallel with the Starting Right stage and continue to 2025) \ufffd Massive Rollout (2025 to 2050) The \ufffdStarting Right\ufffd stage will focus on actions relating to the current government administration, or perhaps also address the initial years of the following one. The most important aspect of the \ufffdStarting Right\ufffd stage is to ensure that a true transition is kicked off."


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"These targets for 2025 and 2030 correspond to two five-year time frames, and corresponding periods of implementation, from 1 January 2021 to 31 December 2025, and 1 January 2026 to 31 December 2030."


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"These will need to be ramped up over time. \ufffd Capacity for implementation at the local government level remains a significant hurdle that needs to be overcome to allow for effective implementation of the Act and realisation of the associated emissions savings benefit.  Cross-Cutting Measures In addition to the measures specific to individual sectors, four cross-cutting measures that will support low carbon development are in various stages of being implemented. Carbon Tax The Carbon Tax Act was brought into effect from 1 June 2019."


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"This INDC has been developed on the understanding that the Paris Agreement will be binding, fair, effective and incorporate a \u201cno-backsliding\u201d and a \u201cprogressive\u201d approach to enhance climate change mitigation and adaptation implementation and ambition. This implementation and ambition will be enabled by finance and technology and capacity building support. In this context, South Africa has transitioned its international mitigation commitment from a relative \u201cdeviation from Business-as-usual\u201d to an absolute peak, plateau and decline greenhouse gas emissions trajectory range."


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"This Special Report, published in 2018, sets out the latest available science for countries to refer to when planning their implementation of the Agreement (IPCC, 2018). The Special Report makes clear the scale of the challenge facing all Parties in achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement."


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"This additional investment is, however, coupled with a reduction in investment in fossil fuel energy generation, transmission and distribution of US$ 5.7 trillion and US$ 3.7 trillion in upstream oil, coal and gas investments. A further US$ 5.1 trillion could also be saved in operating expenditure because of the reliance on low carbon technologies like renewables."


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"This breakdown is relevant in this document in that it helps to contextualise the mitigation measures presented below. The IEP update with a clear trajectory for the energy sector is critical to guiding overall energy planning for the country, including in the context of this document to support a just transition away from fossil fuels towards a low carbon future."


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"This capacity support should be inclusive of human resources; institutionalisation of climate change response; financial resources and technological and/or technical support. The cities will play a pivotal role in leading climate change response in the country by virtue of urbanisation trends and services offered to the community. The National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (NCCAS) which was approved by Cabinet in for implementation identifies priorities, which are also informed by the Global Framework on Climate Services (GFCS)."


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"This goal, how it will be achieved to ensure a just transition, and how the economic advantages of the transition will be maximised, will be formally communicated in future iterations of this strategy.\u201d Consistent with the emphasis in Article 4.1 on equity, and the context of sustainable development and efforts to eradicate poverty, our national process aims at a just transition. We have established a Presidential Climate Commission to oversee the just transition."


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"This has very clear implications: for developing as well as developed countries, before 2050 the core\f  technologies in operation must be fundamentally different from today\ufffds. This is because there is no technological scenario possible which achieves such a reduction while maintaining electric power primarily generated from coal, oil or gas (without carbon capture), or in which passenger transport is provided primarily by petrol/diesel internal combustion engine vehicles."


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"This incentive has been extended until the end of the first phase of the carbon tax (31 December 2022) in line with requests from stakeholders; and \ufffd Section 37B allows companies to deduct the costs, incurred due to expenditures on environmental pollution control and monitoring equipment and/or disposal sites, from their taxable revenues."


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"This includes limiting support for interventions that could lead to a growth in emissions. \ufffd The IPAP provides the platform from which to drive step changes in the industrial sector, to ensure new installations follow global best practice, and to allow for adoption of new/alternative materials and process substitutions."


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"This information enables Parties to meet commitments under Article 4.4 and the provisions of Article 12 of the Convention in relation to adaptation  Element Undertaking for the Assumptions / Methodologies Adaptation investment Adaptation objectives and Goal 1: Develop a National Adaptation National Development Plan Vision 2030, sector plans and any annum  1 Currency exchange rate used is 10 South African Rand to 1 US dollar\fElement Undertaking for the Assumptions / Methodologies Adaptation investment planning for implementation Plan, and begin operationalisation as part of implementing the NCCRP for the period from 2020 to and for the  Goal 2: Take into account climate considerations in national development, sub-national and sector policy frameworks for the  Goal 3: Build the necessary institutional capacity for climate change response planning and implementation for the period 2020 to  Goal 4: Develop an early warning, vulnerability and adaptation monitoring system for key climate future variants thereof are the underpinning foundation for sustainable development planning in South Africa."


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"This informed the update of our first NDC, and consideration of fair share and levels of ambition. (d) Each Party with a nationally determined contribution under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to submit information on: Not applicable. (i) How the economic and social consequences of response measures have been considered in developing the nationally determined contribution; Not applicable."


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"This initiative considers climate and green finance as well as the social issues, governance, and financial stability considerations. Treasury will provide coordination and leadership in this initiative to develop the necessary requirements, starting with an understanding of climate risks. Consistent investment requirements are put in place to reduce transaction costs and enable financial market participants to identify and respond to investment opportunities that contribute positively to green objectives."


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"This interface option will help to ensure a credible price signal to drive mitigation and provide the required regulatory policy certainty. At this stage some of the allowances are likely to be reduced, and the voluntary carbon budget allowance will be completely removed."


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"This is attributed to growth in the less energy intensive services and financial sectors together with a decline in manufacturing and mining (DEA, 2019a).  Policy, legislation and strategies that inform SA-LEDS Three key climate policy documents provide the foundation on which SA-LEDS has been developed."


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"This is partly due to the projected increase in the frequency and intensity of weather-related hazards, but also due to the high socioeconomic vulnerability inherent within communities, as well as poor land-use practices, growing informality, and a failure to rapidly deploy resilient infrastructure associated with accommodating a growing urbanising population. It is undeniably the poor and vulnerable communities that will experience the most severe setbacks from the impacts of climate change, eroding their livelihoods, and thus threatening their resilience."


id: 9e326e24eabbc1ac30c1a14a3b598a78
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"This leads policy-makers to consider the question \ufffdwhat would have to be true\ufffd regarding short and medium-term checkpoints, deriving the answer from the evolution to the goal. Once pathways are clearly drawn out, regulatory, institutional, or other structural changes which are required for the transformation can be identified, from which necessary changes can be deduced and used to suggest concrete policy action."


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"This level of effort will enable South Africa\u2019s greenhouse gas emissions to peak between 2020 and 2025, plateau for approximately a decade and decline in absolute terms thereafter.  Periodic domestic reviews will ensure a dynamic system, in which the stringency of short-term carbon budgets can be adjusted in successive implementation periods to ensure that South Africa remains within the overall carbon budget, which is the area under the PPD trajectory range."


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"This means that requirements for intermediate steps\f  between today and the long-term goal are deduced not on the basis of how compatible they may be with the current context, but rather in terms of what is required for the end-state to be achieved. This leads policy-makers to consider the question \ufffdwhat would have to be true\ufffd regarding short and medium-term checkpoints, deriving the answer from the evolution to the goal."


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"This means that the investments made today and during the current NDC period will determine much of the activity, and associated emissions, of 2050. Creating a LEDS which aligns with the Paris Agreement thus requires new planning approaches and tools. Clear, ambitious long-term targets must be set, consistent with the Paris goals."


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"This phase will begin to be implemented in parallel with the \ufffdStarting Right\ufffd stage, where appropriate, and continue to 2025. This period is decisive, since within it new decision and investment criteria are broadly applied, bringing about changes to the day-to-day operation of many sectors of the economy at the same time. Resistance to change can become challenging if not well handled, and must be anticipated and addressed with social acceptance and just transition actions."


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"This plan is informed by an assessment of sectoral, cross-sectoral and geographical vulnerabilities to the adverse impacts of climate change, and it will quantify and present pathways for adaptation, towards an inclusive and just transition to a climate resilient economy and society, taking into account local and indigenous knowledge, gender considerations, as well as social, economic and environmental implications.  South\fAfrica considers its adaptation component of its INDC to be an important contribution to the global response to climate change."


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"This standard \ufffdspecifies the design requirements for energy efficiency in buildings and of services in buildings with natural environmental control and artificial ventilation or air conditioning systems.\ufffd It includes provisions for orientation, maximum energy demand and the maximum annual energy consumption for various kinds of buildings\f  in various climate zones across the country, and design provisions for all parts of buildings\ufffd construction."


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"This temperature goal is an essential starting point for our INDC, and we believe this goal should inform all countries\u2019 contributions \u2013 in relation to both adaptation and mitigation. More and earlier mitigation means fewer unavoidable impacts, lessening the requirement for adaptation investment. Near zero emissions of CO2 and other long-lived GHGs are needed in the second half of the century to avoid even greater impacts that are beyond adaptation capability. The solution must lie in collective action."


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"This update contains targets for the same two years, corresponding to the same periods of implementation. South Africa\u2019s updated mitigation targets are contained in Table 2 below, with further information contained in Table 3, which contains the information to facilitate transparency, clarity and understanding as specified in Annex I to decision 4/CMA.1 : Table 2 - South Africa s updated NDC mitigation targets Year Target Corresponding period of implementation South Africa\u2019s annual GHG emissions will be in a range from 398-510 Mt CO2-eq."


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"This was augmented and validated by referring, secondly, to the aggregation of multiple current and historic effort-sharing studies that have been compiled by the Climate Action Tracker (CAT), whilst identifying certain caveats regarding CAT\u2019s methodology."


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"This was followed in 2017 by the gazetting of GHG reporting regulations, together with the requirement that large emitters submit annual pollution prevention plans detailing plans to cut GHG emissions, and progress made in doing so. Company-level carbon budgets were introduced for large emitters on a voluntary basis in a first phase, as indicated in the first NDC. Our Green Transport Strategy was adopted in 2018, including policies to promote bus rapid transit, road to rail and electric vehicles."


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"This will complement significant research that has been undertaken to identify sectors and activities that should be prioritised in terms of mitigation and adaptation actions. Research already undertaken includes the Technology Needs Assessment (which is currently being updated) (DST, 2007), the Long Term Adaptation Scenarios (LTAS), Long Term Mitigation Scenarios (LTMS), the latest GHG Inventory, the Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA), Climate Change Mitigation Technology Implementation Plan (DEA and DST, 2015), Global Change Research Plan and national government departmental plans (DEA, 2018b; DEA 2019c)."


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"This will constitute the scientific basis for strengthening the national and provincial governments\u2019 readiness to respond to climate risk as driven by the change in climate parameters, including extreme rainfall, temperature events, and extreme events in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication  Climate change risk vulnerability assessments are presently based on a prevailing global emissions trajectory, RCP 8.5, taking into account extreme climate indices and developing sector-specific climate-based risk and vulnerability matrices for the period 2011 \u2013 2040."


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"This work has already commenced in South Africa through a number of studies: \ufffd The Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA), the overall objective of which was to conduct an updated, bottom-up assessment of mitigation potential in key economic sectors in order to\f  identify a set of viable options for reducing GHGs. Marginal abatement cost curves (MACCs) for key sectors and subsectors were constructed. The MACCs provide estimates of mitigation potential and marginal abatement costs for broad mitigation measures."


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"Those that contribute to climate mitigation include: \ufffd Achieving the peak, plateau and decline trajectory for GHG emissions (See Section 3); \ufffd Entrenching an economy-wide carbon price by 2030; \ufffd Implementing zero emission building standards by 2030; and \ufffd Achieving absolute reductions in the total volume of waste disposed to landfill each year.  The Plan also highlights co-benefits of mitigation action which include increasing energy security and enhancing socio-economic and environmentally sustainable growth."


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"Those who have a greater responsibility for cumulative emissions that have driven up GHG concentrations in the atmosphere should, as a matter of fairness, assist those less responsible. An assessment of equity also needs to take into account means of implementation. Generally, South Africa needs time for sustainable development, which is necessary to eliminate poverty, reduce inequality, increase employment and promote inclusive economic growth, while simultaneously seeking to contribute to mitigation and assist our vulnerable communities in adapting to climate impacts."


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"Those who have a greater responsibility for cumulative emissions that have driven up GHG concentrations in the atmosphere should, as a matter of fairness, assist those less responsible. Furthermore, investments in adaptation represent a significant opportunity cost with respect to investments required to reduce poverty and inequality, create employment, improve education and address other development challenges."


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"Three key climate policy documents provide the foundation on which SA-LEDS has been developed. These are: \ufffd The National Development Plan (NDP): With an overarching objective of eliminating poverty and reduce inequality by 2030, the NDP outlines a set of goals and actions to meet the country\ufffds environmental sustainability and resilience needs, and dedicates a full chapter to \ufffdEnvironmental Sustainability \ufffd An equitable transition to a low-carbon economy\ufffd."


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"Through submitting this document to the UNFCCC our country reiterates its commitment to achieving the Paris goals. Implementation of the Strategy will also contribute directly and indirectly to the meeting of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SA-LEDS builds upon years of work on climate change in the country, which has contributed to the establishment of an important set of policy documents. Building on existing plans offers numerous benefits, such as optimizing\f  ix resources and ensuring buy-in of key stakeholders."


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"Through submitting this document to the UNFCCC our country reiterates its commitment to achieving the Paris goals. It also highlights that implementation of the Strategy will contribute directly and indirectly to the meeting of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SA-LEDS builds upon years of work on climate change in the country, which has culminated in the establishment of an important set of policy documents (Figure 1)."


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"Thus, a critical area in which institutional capabilities and arrangements should be enhanced is for the planning and policy-making processes themselves. These processes will have to develop targets across the whole economy, plan detailed actions over several timescales, and ensure the right changes can take place in the right way. The institutional capabilities required for these planning efforts and their implementation will require improved capabilities, as well as closer links to the research community, civil society, and the business community."


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"Time frames and/or periods for implementation:  (a) Time frame and/or period for implementation, including start and end date, consistent with any further relevant decision adopted by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA); The South African NDC is defined as having two time frames of five years each (2021- 2025 and 2026-2030). This update maintains the same two periods of implementation: 1 January 2026 to 31 December 2030."


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"To achieve such a trajectory, transformational rather than incremental change is needed: while most national policies aim to effect limited change within one area of national life over a timeframe of one to five years, the transformation described in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 degrees will require planning over a 30-year timeframe to ensure broad-based change across all sectors in a coordinated manner."


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"To do this, however, the emphasis should be placed on greening the financial sector as a whole, and not just developing a climate finance niche. The reasons for this are multiple. Not only is the scale of the challenge such that countries cannot afford to misallocate capital, particularly while domestic sources still make up the bulk of climate finance, but carbon lock- in and a reluctance to allow stranded assets could jeopardise mitigation targets."


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"To explore how the build plan could contribute to a decline in South Africa\ufffds GHG  4 Scenarios explored included those which have no cap on annual build on renewables, changes to gas prices and the application of a carbon budget\f  emissions in line with the current commitments, modelling of the base case included a carbon constraint to account for the electricity sector\ufffds proportional contribution to meeting the PPD trajectory."


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"To help ensure that the Parties\ufffd national contributions can jointly achieve the collective goal, the Article further states that \ufffdParties should strive to formulate and communicate long-term low greenhouse gas emission development strategies, mindful of Article 2 taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, in the light of different national circumstances\ufffd. This document has been prepared in response to that Article, and presents South Africa\ufffds first Low Emission Development Strategy (SA-LEDS)."


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"Topics such as ministerial attributions, levels of government, chains of command, and decision-making, as well as the scope for different institutions to access resources such as finance, skills, or regulatory authorization, should all be taken into consideration, as they can make a significant difference to the success of the transformation."


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"Transformation of the electricity supply sector The IRP (2019) makes provision for renewables being added to the electricity supply mix, both to meet growing demand and to replace power stations that will be decommissioned."


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"Two municipal green bonds have been released in South Africa, by the City of Cape Town and the City of Johannesburg, and the Johannesburg Stock Exchange currently has three green bonds listed by financial institutions with a total value of US$ 385 million (PWC, 2019; Khumalo, 2019) South Africa has well capacitated development finance institutions, like the DBSA and the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) that routinely channel climate finance from multilateral and bilateral donors, and private sector banks have also partnered with international donors to roll out innovative climate finance vehicles."


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"UNFCCC Paris Agreement Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS) National Planning Instruments (overriding vision for SA) National Development Plan (NDP) NPC vision process (ongoing) National Policy (legal framework for action) National Climate Change Response Policy (2011) Carbon tax Climate Change Bill (forthcoming) Other departments\u2019 policies Analytical Studies (evidence based planning and implementation) Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA) Pathways study Policies and Measures (PAMs) study\f  THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY, EMISSIONS PROFILE AND POLICY LANDSCAPE An overview of the local economy, greenhouse gas emissions profile and relevant policy, legislation and strategies is provided to set the context in which SA-LEDS has been developed."


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"UNFCCC: Has an objective to \"stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system\" Paris Agreement: Refers to post-2020 climate actions countries intend to take under the Agreement Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS): Communication of mid-century long-term low GHG emissions development strategies, towards the goal of limiting global warming to well below 2\u00b0C and to pursuing efforts to limit the increase to 1.5\u00b0C National Development Plan (NDP): Long-term development plan that aims to eliminate poverty and reduce inequality by 2030."


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"USD13 bn), of which 80% was domestic and 20% foreign investment The REI4P has created 50 984 job-years in SA; contributed ZAR1 200 million (USD 75m) in socio-economic development contributions, reduced carbon emissions of 47.7 Mt CO2 and saved 56.3 million litres of water (IPP office 2020). Over the next decade, the NDC will require a much greater investment programme, as specified in IPR 2019, of between R860 billion and R920 billion (in 2019 Rands; USD60-64 billion)."


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"Uncertainties in speed of response and investments required should not limit the scenario work, but rather become part of the output, to enable policymakers to appreciate what conditions will be required to enable different trajectories. Creating a national picture out of sectoral pathways will be essential to ensure balance between the sectors can inform national deliberations."


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"Uncertainties) With COVID-19, there has been a reduction in GHG emissions globally, but there is very high uncertainty on how long it may take the economy to recover, and for emissions to potentially rise again. While these factors have been taken into account as far as possible, this has added additional uncertainties to emissions projections for the 2020s. Another key implication relates to support."


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"Use of updated GWP values in place of the current values is expected to increase South Africa\u2019s total emissions estimate in the target years by 10-20 Mt CO2-eq. For accounting against our NDC target, land sector emissions arising from natural disturbances will be excluded from total land sector emissions/sinks (IPCC 2006 guidelines categories 3B and 3D). This is expected to reduce South Africa\u2019s total emissions estimate in the target years by 5-30 Mt CO2-eq, depending on the occurrence of wildfires during these years."


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"Using project-level  11 According to the World Bank Development Indicators the size of the South African Economy was US$ 366 billion in 2018.\f  data which doesn\ufffdt cover all climate finance flows, Timperley (2018), calculates a lower value for OECD climate finance to developing countries of US$ 37 billion in 2016. For 2015 to 2017, approximately US$ 160.7 million of bilateral and US$ 45.4 million of multilateral climate finance flowed to South Africa."


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"VISION STATEMENT The stated vision for SA-LEDS is as follows:  South Africa follows a low-carbon growth trajectory while making a fair contribution to the global effort to limit the average temperature increase, while ensuring a just transition and b\ufffdilding of \ufffdhe co\ufffdn\ufffdr\ufffd\ufffds resilience \ufffdo clima\ufffde change  In the absence of an agreed quantitative articulation of the vision, the Peak, Plateau, Decline Emissions Trajectory Range, as reflected in the NCCRP and NDP, is used as the benchmark against which the performance of SA- LEDS will be measured."


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"Vulnerability and resilience Although this strategy focuses primarily on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, the vulnerability to climate change impacts, as well as the need to build resilience to these impacts is noted, and will be further elaborated in future iterations of SA-LEDS."


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"Waste sector As in many other countries, a growing population, a growing middle class and increased rates of urbanisation are putting pressure on solid waste and waste water management facilities. Waste streams are also becoming increasingly diverse in their composition, which affects the complexity of management processes. The amount of waste landfilled in South Africa significantly exceeds the amount that is diverted, either through reuse or recycling."


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"We affirm that successful implementation of the Paris Agreement requires implementation by the international community of measures to achieve all the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement, on temperature, capacity, mitigation, adaptation and finance. South Africa takes the view that ambition should not only apply to setting goals, but also to their implementation."


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"We also expect developed countries to show progression beyond previous efforts, to set a new collective quantified goal from a floor of USD 100 billion per year, taking into account the needs and priorities of developing countries. The overall costs of implementing South Africa\u2019s climate policies associated with the achievement of this NDC\u2019s targets and goals are partially estimated above and below."


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"We are instead looking at actions that will build a new, inclusive economy that creates employment and fosters sustainable growth\u201d (President Ramaphosa in a letter to the nation on climate change, 24 August 2020). South Africa is already experiencing the impacts of climate change, and faces multiple challenges in relation to climate change over the next decade."


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"We consider that equity applies to mitigation, adaptation and support for both. Hence further details on equitable access to sustainable development are outlined below.  IPCC AR5 has provided relevant scientific information on the limited remaining future global carbon budget consistent with achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2."


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"We continue to assume \u201cthat implementation and ambition will be enabled by finance and technology and capacity building support\u201d, as stated in the first NDC, and stipulated in the Paris Agreement. This update of the first NDC is consistent with the principles and provisions of the Paris Agreement and the UNFCCC."


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"We have warmly welcomed the IPCC\u2019s special report on global warming of 1.5 \u00b0C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty. South Africa considers the IPCC reports to be of the highest importance in guiding our actions. Our approach has consistently been guided by science and equity."


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"We know that success will require decades of dedicated effort. Therefore, we present this Strategy as a living document, the beginning of our journey towards ultimately reaching a net zero carbon economy by 2050. The first step will thus be to ensure national targets are aligned with the Paris Agreement, as stated in Section 5.1. Thereafter, planning teams with analytical and sectoral expertise will engage in detailed scenario work to develop transformation pathways towards achieving the national targets (see discussion in Section 6.1 below)."


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"We note that the special report assessed \u201cthe comparison between global warming of 1.5\u00b0C and 2\u00b0C above pre- industrial levels\u201d, but did not assess the agreed global temperature limit of \u201cwell below 2 \u00b0C\u201d explicitly, and look forward to more information on \u201cwell below 2 \u00b0C\u201d in the IPCC\u2019s 6th Assessment Report."


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"We thus commit to ultimately moving towards a goal of net zero carbon emissions by 2050, which will require various interventions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. This goal, how it will be achieved to ensure a just transition, and how the economic advantages of the transition will be maximised, will be formally communicated in future iterations of this strategy."


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"When establishing potential pathways, the desired end-state should be linked to the present, by \ufffdbackcasting\ufffd rather than forecasting. This means that requirements for intermediate steps between today and the long-term goal are deduced not on the basis of how compatible they may be with the current context, but rather in terms of what is required for the end-state to be achieved."


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"While countries establish their own goals in a nationally determined manner, sectoral details will have to be analyzed in significant detail, laying out different scenarios to understand trajectories of investment, technology take-up, emissions reduction, and market change."


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"While countries establish their own goals in a nationally determined manner, sectoral details will have to be analyzed in significant detail, laying out different scenarios to understand trajectories of investment, technology take-up, emissions reduction, and market change. This work has already commenced in South Africa through a number of studies: \ufffd The Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA), the overall objective of which was to conduct an updated, bottom-up assessment of mitigation potential in key economic sectors to identify a set of viable options for reducing GHGs."


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"While it is agreed that developed countries must take the lead in reducing emissions, in is also imperative that global totals not be exceeded, because developing countries will suffer most from the negative impacts of such a collective failure to limit global emissions. These challenges \ufffd which the IPCC Special Report has presented so clearly to the international community \ufffd will play a key role in setting our national goals."


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"While such a subsidy review may cause resistance in some sectors, it provides an opportunity to ensure the use of state funds is progressive in terms of its distribution and enhances growth through the development of new businesses and investments which align fully with national objectives. Support for renewable energy options must be considered to accelerate their market acceptance, without building excessive distortions which may limit future competitiveness or stagnate the transformation."


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"While the socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 are highly uncertain, it is very likely that South Africa will be more highly indebted than prior to the crisis, which will add additional strain to the South African fiscus, constrain local capital markets and potentially increase the cost of borrowing. While the South African greenhouse gas inventory system has consistently improved in its coverage and in the detail and quality of estimation of greenhouse gases, considerable uncertainties remain in estimating GHGs, especially in the land sector."


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"White Paper on Science Technology and Innovation, Pretoria, South Africa: Department of Science and Technology. Available at:   [Accessed June 2019]. dti, (2007). National Industrial Policy Framework. Pretoria: Department of Trade and Industry. Available at:  dti, (2015). South Africa: Investor\ufffds Handbook 2014/2015. Available at: [Accessed June 2019]. dti, (2017). Economic Review. Available at: b82878d651fa, [Accessed June 2019]. FIRST fund, (undated). What we do. Available at:   [Accessed June 2019]. GeoTerraImage, (2013)."


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"With 17% of funding for the South African climate change research and technology development system coming from international sources, international research agendas also have some impact on the local agenda. The White Paper on Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) (DST, 2019) also emphasises the core themes of inclusivity, transformation, and partnerships, and recognises the important role that STI would play in mitigating and adapting to climate change impacts."


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"With regard to an ultimate solution to the global challenge of climate change, South Africa is firmly committed to working with others to ensure temperature increases are kept well below 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, which could include a further revision of the temperature goal to below 1.5\u00b0C in light of emerging science, noting that global average temperature increase of 2\u00b0C translates to up to 4\u00b0C for South Africa by the end of the century."


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"With regards to the temperature goal, it shows that every tenth of a degree centigrade in warming makes a significant difference to the impacts on people and ecosystems, making 1.5\u00b0C of warming much more closely aligned with the objective of the Convention, than 1.6\u00b0C, 1.6\u00b0C preferable to 1.7\u00b0C, and so on. Furthermore, the Special Report shows that, to be consistent with 1.5\u00b0C, global CO2 emissions by 2030 must be about 45% lower than those of 2010, reaching net zero emissions around 2050."


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"With respect to the mitigation response, the Bill provides for future review and determination of the national greenhouse gas emissions trajectory; determination of sectoral emissions targets for emitting sectors and subsectors; and allocation of carbon budgets. Sectoral emissions targets and carbon budgets are discussed further in Section 4.6.3 and 4.6.4. The Bill also makes provision for the development of plans to phase down or phase out the use of synthetic greenhouse gases \ufffd in line with the Kigali Amendments to the Montreal Protocol."


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"Within the context of the Convention principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibility South Africa\u2019s shift from a \u201cdeviation from business-as- usual\u201d commitment to a peak, plateau and decline GHG emissions trajectory range in its INDC fully aligns with the IPPC AR5 future global carbon budget. Carbon budgets are an important form of flexibility at the national level; if emissions are below the benchmark trajectory range in a given year, they can exceed it in another year."


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"Within the context of the Paris Agreement\u2019s principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibility, in the light of different national circumstances, we update the first NDC to reflect our highest possible ambition. The long-term global goal for mitigation in Article 4.1 refers to global peaking, recognising this will take longer for developing countries. The reference to a balance of sources and sinks highlight the importance of sinks, globally and in South Africa."


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"World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland. Available at:   [Accessed June 2019]. Kaung-Idba, K., (2019). The GEF and its TNA related activities. Presentation at Side Event on Technology Needs Assessment at the Bonn Climate Change Conference (SB50). Khumalo, K., (2019). Investors snap up Nedbank green bonds. Business Report, 2 May. Meltzer, J.P., (2016). Financing Low Carbon, Climate Resilient Infrastructure: The Role of Climate Finance and Green Financial Systems. Brookings Institute Global Economy 7 Development Working Paper 96."


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"and SJRPs \ufffd Develop investment pathways to support the transformation \ufffd Implement foundational changes to drive down the national trajectory \ufffd Implement the institutional changes to accelerate the rate of transformation and remove barriers Massive roll-out \ufffd Roll-out the implementation plans for each sector along with measures to support changes until they become the new reality \ufffd Refine strategies as required, to account for changes in technologies, society and markets Successful rollout across the three stages will require policy action to be taken in a coordinated manner."


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"and provide for the integration of sector-related climate change responses into the relevant sector planning processes and their developmental policies and measures."


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"and skills for future value capture 54 Ensuring a just transition with jobs for all . 56 Promoting sustainable development through education and culture 57 Enhancing information and metrics . 57 CONCLUDING REMARKS: PLANNING FOR IMPLEMENTATION 58 Detailed sectoral work to explore transformation pathways . 58 Creation of policy package roadmaps across three phases 59 REFERENCES . 63 iii LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1: SA-LEDS in the context of prior climate-related work in South Africa . 7 Figure 2: Key contributors to GDP 8 Figure 3: Contribution of main emission categories and energy emission categories to national gross greenhouse gas emissions in 2015 13 Figure 4: Total gross national GHG emissions by economic sector . 14 Figure 5: South Africa\ufffds Peak, Plateau, Decline Trajectory Range. 20 Figure 6: Sectoral energy demand . 22 Figure 7: Share of installed capacity in the 2019 IRP in MW 25 Figure 8: Domestic climate finance (2015 - 2017) 49 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Strategic interventions outlined in South Africa\ufffds National Adaptation Strategy . 19 Table 2: Energy efficiency targets outlined in the post-2015 NEES . 28 Table 3: Measures outlined in the post-2015 NEES . 29 Table 4: Current institutional arrangements to address"


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"and their effectiveness Development of a national M&E system to track vulnerability, resilience, implementation and resource allocation by 2025 VISION STATEMENT SA-LEDS is grounded in South Africa\ufffds climate change response as encapsulated in the documents described in the previous section, while taking cognisance of the country\ufffds international climate change commitments and aspirations."


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"the manufacturing sub- sector Develop standardised tools for voluntary reporting of energy savings from initiatives in the mining sector Create technology/ learning hubs for energy efficiency Agricultural sector Explore the potential for savings in agricultural vehicle use, and develop appropriate awareness-raising material Develop targeted awareness-raising and training material on potential savings in motor-driven systems Provide direct grants to small farmers / smallholders for all or part of the cost of interventions Transport sector Develop fuel efficiency standards for light and heavy vehicles to improve the overall efficiency of the vehicle stock Improve systems for ensuring road worthiness Roll-out the provision of energy and activity data from the transport sector Production and distribution sector Develop the enabling framework for cogeneration and trigeneration Expand internal efficiency programmes for producers The Post-2015 NEES makes provision for a review every five years."


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"the\"United\"Nations\"Sustainable\"Development\"Goals\"\" We have heeded the Call to Action issued by the COP 23 and COP 24 Presidencies following the Talanoa Dialogue, a facilitative dialogue in 2018 to take stock of the collective efforts towards the long-term global goal for mitigation (Article 4.1) and to inform updating of NDCs (Article 4.8) under the Paris Agreement. South Africa has considered all the principles and provisions of the Paris Agreement in updating its first NDC."


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"to support the transition at the national government level, infrastructure and skills will need to be developed at the sub-national level."


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"x Although this strategy focuses primarily on greenhouse gas emissions mitigation, the vulnerability to climate change impacts, as well as the need to build resilience to these impacts is noted, and will be further elaborated in future iterations of SA-LEDS. South Africa has developed a National Climate Change Adaptation Strategy that highlights nine key vulnerability areas for the country which acts as a complement to this document."


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"xii \ufffd Promotion of cleaner mobility: Emissions from energy supply in the transport sector are addressed through a number of policy documents. The 2007 Public Transport Strategy sets out an action plan for accelerated modal shifts and for the development of integrated rapid public transport networks. Since then, the successful implementation of the bus rapid transport (BRT) system in Johannesburg has led to it being adapted and implemented in other major South African cities, with further roll-outs being planned."


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"xiii Waste Waste management activities are legislated through the National Environmental Management: Waste Act, with further policy direction being provided through the National Waste Management Strategy (NWMS). The Strategy adopts the waste management hierarchy of waste avoidance and reduction, re-use, recycling, recovery, treatment and disposal, activities which potentially contribute to a reduction in emissions from material life cycles2. Subsequent to the Waste Act and NWMS, twenty national waste management initiatives and annual targets have been established through a process known as the Waste Phakisa."


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"xv CONCLUDING REMARKS: PLANNING FOR IMPLEMENTATION SA-LEDS sets out a direction of travel for South Africa as we refine our low carbon emission development pathway to meet our commitments to the international community and address our developmental agenda/priorities and needs. We know that success will require decades of dedicated effort. Therefore, this Strategy is a living document, the beginning of our journey towards ultimately reaching a net zero carbon economy by 2050."


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"xviii Table E1: The three phases of the just transition Starting Right (start immediately and complete by end of financial year) \ufffd Start the process of developing long term plans for each sector, to avoid lock-in to emissions intensive infrastructure and establish the basis for transformation at scale \ufffd Develop approaches for allocation of Sectoral Emissions Targets (SETs) and carbon budgets to high emitting entities \ufffd Develop Sector Jobs Resilience Plans (SJRPs) to support the transition to the low carbon economy and climate resilient society in a Just manner \ufffd Identify the institutional, legislative, finance and other changes required to achieve the transformation \ufffd Develop an understanding of the relevant government decisions which need to be taken to achieve the long-term plans \ufffd Develop a monitoring plan Turning the corner (start immediately, as appropriate, and complete by \ufffd Develop and begin to implement detailed transformation plans for each sector, which is supported by the implementation of the SETs, carbon budgets and SJRPs \ufffd Develop investment pathways to support the transformation \ufffd Implement foundational changes to drive down the national trajectory"


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"\u201cEnvironmental Research Letters Projections of Rapidly Rising Surface Temperatures over Africa under Low Mitigation Related Content Projections of Rapidly Rising Surface Temperatures over Africa under Low Mitigation.\u201d Environ. Res. Lett. Engelbrecht, Francois, Jimmy Adegoke, Mary-Jane Bopape, Mogesh Naidoo, Rebecca Garland, Marcus Thatcher, John McGregor, et al. 2015. \u201cProjections of Rapidly Rising Surface Temperatures over Africa under Low Mitigation.\u201d Environmental Research Letters 085004.  IPP office. 2020. \u201cIndependent Power Producers Procurement Programme (IPPPP): An Overview, as at 31 March 2020.\u201d Centurion. NPC. 2011."


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"\u201cNationally Determined Contributions Update: Adaptation Component.\u201d Pretoria. DEA. 2011a. \u201cNational Climate Change Response White Paper.\u201d Pretoria: Department of Environmental Affairs, South Africa. \u2014\u2014\u2014. 2011b. \u201cNational Strategy for Sustainable Development and Action Plan.\u201d Tshwane: DEA. DEFF. 2020a. \u201cNational Climate Change Adaptation Strategy.\u201d Tshwane. \u2014\u2014\u2014. 2020b. \u201cNational Climate Risk & Vulnerability (CRV) Assessment Framework.\u201d Tshwane. Engelbrecht, Francois, Jimmy Adegoke, Mary-Jane Bopape, Mogesh Naidoo, Rebecca Garland, Marcus Thatcher, John Mcgregor, et al. 2015."


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"\u201cTechnical Analysis to Support the Update of South Africa\u2019s First NDC\u2019s Mitigation Target Ranges.\u201d Cape Town: Energy Systems Research Group, University of Cape Town.   UNFCCC. 2018a. \u201cDecision 4/CMA.1: Further Guidance in Relation to the Mitigation Section of Decision 1/CP.21. Document FCCC/PA/CMA/2018/3/Add.1.\u201d Katowice. \u2014\u2014\u2014. 2018b. \u201cDecision 18/CMA.1, with Annex: Modalities, Procedures and Guidelines for the Transparency Framework for Action and Support Referred to in Article 13 of the Paris Agreement. Document FCCC/PA/CMA/2018/3/Add.2 .\u201d Katowice. Wolski, Piotr. 2019. \u201cTwice the Global Rate.\u201d CSAG Blog."


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"\ufffd Biofuels Opportunities, offered through the Biofuels Industrial Strategy of 2007 (yet to be implemented) and second and third generation biofuels technologies that could potentially increase the volumes of biofuel that could be produced, without competing with food products for feedstocks."


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"\ufffd Carbon Budgets: Carbon Budgets set a maximum volume of emissions from certain activities that individual entities are allowed to emit over three rolling five-year periods. By assigning a Carbon Budget to an entity, a signal is provided as to the degree of GHG mitigation that is required within a specific time period, with a penalty being imposed if the budget allocation is exceeded."


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"\ufffd Carbon Tax: The Carbon Tax Act was brought into effect from 1 June 2019, which gives effect to the \ufffdpolluter pays principle\ufffd and aims to price carbon by internalising the negative costs of emitting GHGs. The tax rate is set at R120 per tonne of CO2-eq. To allow businesses time for transition, a basic tax-free allowance of 60% will initially apply to all emissions, with further allowances depending on the activities."


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"\ufffd Consideration may be given to revising the standards over time, as new building materials and building requirements emerge, to make them more ambitious. \ufffd Further revisions may also help to make these standards more understandable and readily implementable.  Promotion of Cleaner Mobility Emissions from energy supply in the transport sector are addressed through a number of policy documents."


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"\ufffd Further interventions in this sector are currently being explored by government.  Waste Waste management activities in South Africa are legislated through the National Environmental Management: Waste Act (NEM:WA) (DEA, 2009). To provide further policy direction in terms of establishing fully integrated waste management practices in the country, the National Waste Management Strategy (NWMS) was developed (DEA, 2012). The Strategy adopts the internationally accepted waste management hierarchy of waste avoidance and reduction, re-use, recycling, recovery, treatment and disposal."


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"\ufffd Future work will, however, be required to accelerate implementation and increase ambition of these and other activities.  Industry Two sets of policies that directly and indirectly support emissions reductions in the industrial sector are identified, beyond those discussed in Section 4.2.1 that target energy efficiency. These are the Industrial Policy Action Plan (IPAP) and tax rebates for green project development."


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"\ufffd Implementation of appropriate pricing of carbon through an economy-wide carbon tax should help eliminate under-pricing of fossil fuels in the economy.  GOING FURTHER TO ACHIEVE THE PARIS GOALS Section 4 focused on a set of stand-alone, sector-based policies and measures as well as a selection of cross- cutting interventions that government is busy implementing."


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"\ufffd Integrated Resource Plan, which guides the evolution of the South African electricity supply sector, in that it identifies the preferred electricity generation technologies to be built to meet projected electricity demand. It thus provides a mechanism for Government to drive the diversification of the country\ufffds electricity generation mix and promote the use of renewable energy and other low-carbon technologies."


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"\ufffd Reducing the quantity of recyclable waste sent to landfill, through the implementation of separation at source programmes in metropolitan municipalities and through the establishment of material recovery facilities (MRFs) for separation after the waste has been collected, avoids emissions with primary material production in the case of inert materials and avoids generation of methane in landfill in the case of organics; and \ufffd Recovery of value through waste-to-energy (WtE) facilities avoids generation of methane from organics sent to landfill, and at the same time the electricity generated offsets electricity generation from fossil fuels."


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"\ufffd The Lithium Ion Battery Programme that was established to initiate the development of advanced energy storage technologies which play an essential role regarding the integration of solar and wind power. \ufffd The South African Centre for Capture and Storage (SACCS) was established to drive the activities required to realise commercial scale Carbon Capture and Storage in South Africa, towards sequestering a portion of the emissions from coal-fired power plants, iron and steel, cement and coal gasification."


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"\ufffd The National Climate Change Response Policy (NCCRP) represents government\ufffds comprehensive policy framework for responding to climate change, including provisions for adaptation and mitigation. \ufffd The Climate Change Bill (forthcoming) will form the legislative foundation for the climate change adaptation and mitigation response. With respect to mitigation, the Bill provides for future review and determination of the national greenhouse gas emissions trajectory; determination of sectoral emissions targets for emitting sectors and subsectors; and allocation of carbon budgets."


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"\ufffd The Pathways study to explore the impact of alternative economic growth trajectories on the country\ufffds emissions trajectory, looking at the implementation of structural changes rather than the implementation of purely technical interventions. This study, which also used the single national emissions model, had not been released at the time of writing of this document.\f  xvi \ufffd The Policies and Measures (PAMs) analysis, which explored the impact of existing PAMs, many of which were identified previously, on the emissions trajectory."


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"\ufffd The Policies and Measures (PAMs) analysis, which explored the impact of existing PAMs, many of which were included in Section 4 of this document, on the emissions trajectory. It is recognized that detailed forecasting is unlikely to accurately predict the evolution of markets. However, \ufffdfailing to plan is planning to fail\ufffd, which is why systematic planning is recommended for all sectors."


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"\ufffd The Waste Research, Development and Innovation Roadmap implemented by the CSIR was developed to assist DEA in realising the ambitions of the NWMS through research, science, technology and innovation. If a recycling and circular economy is realised this will drastically reduce the volumes of waste to landfill and mitigate GHG emissions.  Over time, the scale of the planning related to the low-carbon transition will increase, and further research and innovation challenges will arise."


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"\ufffdMassive rollout\ufffd is the final phase, in which the low-emissions climate resilient options have become the new normal. The constant application of transformative action will drive large volumes of investment towards transformational change. Perseverance on the application of all aspects of change will be required to avoid imbalances or injustices which will compromise the change, and sectors which achieve important milestones must not be allowed to become complacent, but rather contribute to the broader change by supporting areas of natural synergy."


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"\ufffdO\ufffd\ufffdH AF\ufffdICA\ufffd\ufffd LO\ufffd- EMISSION DEVELOPMENT i TABLE OF CONTENTS ACRONYMS . IV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY . VIII INTRODUCTION 1 The global climate crisis 1 The Paris Agreement . 2 The Science of 1.5\u00b0C and what it means for the Paris goals . 3 Methodological elements for developing LEDS . 4 South Africa LEDS \ufffd a living document . 6 THE SOUTH AFRICAN ECONOMY, EMISSIONS PROFILE AND POLICY LANDSCAPE . 8 South Africa\ufffds Economy. 8 2.1.1 Energy supply . 8 2.1.2 Mining and the industrial sector 10 2.1.3 Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU) . 11 2.1.4 Waste sector . 11 2.1.5 Other sectors 11 Greenhouse gas emissions profile 12 Policy, legislation and strategies that inform SA-LEDS 14 2.3.2 National Climate Change Response Policy 15 2.3.3 Climate Change Bill 17 The role of sub-national government and the private sector 17 2.4.1 Sub-national government 17 2.4.2 The contribution of the private sector 18 Vulnerability and resilience 18 VISION STATEMENT . 19 GHG EMISSIONS MITIGATION MEASURES 21 Energy supply 21 4.1.1 Integrated Energy Plan . 21 4.1.2 Integrated Resource Plan . 23 4.1.3 Biofuels"


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"(b) (c) Specific information applicable to Parties, including regional economic integration organizations and their member States, that have reached an agreement to act jointly under Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement, including the Parties that agreed to act jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance with Article paragraphs 16\u201318, of the Paris Agreement; How the Party\u2019s preparation of its nationally determined contribution has been informed by the outcomes of the global stocktake, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement; Not applicable Not applicable as this NDC was prepared in 2020/21 before the Global Stock Take in 2023 (d) (i) (ii) Each Party with a nationally determined contribution under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to submit information on: How the economic and social consequences of response measures have been considered in developing the nationally determined contribution; Specific projects, measures and activities to be implemented to contribute to mitigation co-"


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"(b) Fairness considerations, including reflecting on equity; Zambia regards its NDC to represent its fair share of the efforts to achieve the global long-term goal of the Paris Agreement as emission reductions of 25% and 47% conditional and non conditional pledges are very ambitious, taking into account country\u2019s national circumstances (c) How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 3, of the Paris Agreement; Zambia s updated and revised  nationally determined contribution represents a progression beyond its previously communicated nationally determined contribution, as it broadens the scope of sectors under mitigation by adding transport, liquid waste and coal (production, transportation and consumption) and elaborates the adaptation component of the NDC by developing indicators that will enable the country track progress on building resilience in both the human and physical systems."


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"(b) Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered by the nationally determined contribution, including, as applicable, consistent with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines; Information provided in this NDC is consistent with the IPCC guidelines:  Sectors 1. Energy-categories include; Energy industries, manufacturing industries and construction, transport, and other sectors 2. Agriculture Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU)-categories include; livestock, Land and Aggregate sources and non-CO2 emissions sources on land 3."


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"(b) Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered by the nationally determined contribution, including, as applicable, consistent with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines; Information provided is this NDC is consistent with the IPCC guidelines:  Sectors Energy, industrial processes and product use, Agriculture Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU), and waste.  Gases Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), sulphur hexafluoride (SF6))."


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"(c) For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or polices and measures as components of nationally determined contributions where paragraph 1(b) above is not applicable, Parties to provide other relevant information; Zambia prepared Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) on small hydro, sustainable agriculture, and sustainable transport, integrated waste management, and sustainable charcoal production. The NAMAs were submitted to the UNFCCC NAMA registry in 2016."


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"(c) How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 3, of the Paris Agreement; Zambia s updated and strengthened nationally determined contribution represents a progression beyond its previously communicated nationally determined contribution, as it broadens the scope of sectors under mitigation by adding transport, liquid waste and coal (production, transportation and consumption) and elaborates the adaptation component of the NDC by developing indicators that will enable the country track progress on building resilience in both the human and physical ecosystems and on adaptation actions."


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"(c) If applicable, information on how the Party will take into account existing methods and guidance under the Convention to account for anthropogenic emissions and removals, in accordance with Article 14, of the Paris Agreement, as appropriate; Zambia s current GHG inventory is in accordance with decision 24/CP.19 and hence the IPCC 2006 Guidelines and the 2003 Good Practice Guidance .  (d) IPCC methodologies and metrics used for estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals; IPCC 2006 guidelines was used for estimating GHG emissions and removals."


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"(c) If applicable, information on how the Party will take into account existing methods and guidance under the Convention to account for anthropogenic emissions and removals, in accordance with Article 14, of the Paris Agreement, as appropriate; Zambia s current GHG inventory is in accordance with decision 24/CP.19 and hence the country will use IPCC 2006 Guidelines.  (d) IPCC methodologies and metrics used for estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals; IPCC 2006 guidelines was used for estimating GHG emissions and removals."


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"(d)  (i)  (ii) Each Party with a nationally determined contribution under Article 4 of the Paris Agreement that consists of adaptation action and/or economic diversification plans resulting in mitigation co-benefits consistent with Article 4, paragraph 7, of the Paris Agreement to submit information on:  How the economic and social consequences of response measures have been considered in developing the nationally determined contribution;  Specific projects, measures and activities to be implemented to contribute to mitigation co- benefits, including information on adaptation plans that also yield mitigation co- benefits, which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, water resources, coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, agriculture and forestry; and economic diversification actions, which may cover, but are not limited to, sectors The intended contribution on adaptation stated here is for the purposes of information so that an overview of the range of planned climate-related actions of the country is made known; it does not constitute an international obligation to the country."


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"(d) How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement Not applicable. (e) How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement."


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"(d) How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 4, of the Paris Agreement Not applicable. (e) How the Party has addressed Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement. Not applicable."


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"(d) Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties\u2019 adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans, including description of specific projects, measures and initiatives of Parties\u2019 adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans.  Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties\u2019 adaptation actions Zambia has identified several mitigation benefits from adaptation actions including under Climate Smart Agriculture where adaptation measures through techniques have also resulted in emissions reductions  \f (e) Sectoral targets A quantitative analysis of sectoral targets is currently under review."


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"(d) Target relative to the reference indicator, expressed numerically, for example in percentage or amount of reduction; At least 25% (at the Business As Usual BAU level of international support prevailing in 2015) and towards 47%  (with substantial international support) reduction in greenhouse gas emission compared to 2010 levels. (e) Information on sources of data used in quantifying the reference point(s); The reference indicator will be quantified based on national total GHG emissions in 2010 reported in Zambia\u2019s Biennial Update Report."


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"(e) Adaptation An In-depth  countrywide Vulnerability Assessment was conducted in 2020 to provide an assessment and analysis of the effect of dry spells, floods and pest infestation on different sectors in order to understand their impacts on sector performance and recommend required actions for response, rehabilitation and recovery.  It outlines recommendations for the following sectors: Agriculture and food security; Health; Nutrition; Water, Sanitation and Hygiene; Education; and Development Project and Safety net programmes being implemented in communities."


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"(e) Adaptation An In-depth Vulnerability Report was conducted in 2019 to provide a needs assessment and analyse the effect of dry spells, floods and pest infestation on different sectors in order to understand their impacts on sector performance and decipher the required actions for response, rehabilitation and recovery. It outlines recommendations for the following sectors: Agriculture and food security; Health; Nutrition; Water, Sanitation and Hygiene; Education; and Development Project and Safety net programmes being implemented in communities."


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"(e) Information on sources of data used in quantifying the reference point(s); Sources of information include;   Zambia\u2019s Biennial Update Report and Third National Communication submitted to UNFCCC Secretariat in 2020. (f) Information on the circumstances under which the Party may update the values of the reference indicators. The value of the reference indicator has been updated due to the fact that GHG emissions have been recalculated as a result of change of methodologies."


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"(e) Sector-, category- or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate, including, as applicable: (i) Approach to addressing emissions and subsequent removals from natural disturbances on managed lands; Emissions and subsequent removals from natural disturbances on afforested land and managed forest land may be excluded from the accounting if the emissions from the natural disturbance exceed the average emissions caused by natural disturbances in the period 2001- 2020, excluding outliers (background level)  (ii) Approach used to account for emissions and removals from harvested wood products; Not Applicable (iii) Approach used to address the effects of age-class structure in forests; Emissions and removals in managed forests in the period 2021 \u2013 2030 will be accounted for as the deviation from a projected forward-looking forest reference level, with regards to dynamic age-related forests characteristics."


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"(f) Information on the circumstances under which the Party may update the values of the reference indicators. The national total GHG emissions in 2010 may be updated and recalculated due to continuous methodological improvements. Information on updates made will be included in the relevant reporting under the UNFCCC, and from 2024 onwards in the Biennial Transparency Reports."


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"(f) Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the nationally determined contribution and, if applicable, estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including:  (i) How the reference indicators, baseline(s) and/or reference level(s), including, where applicable, sector-, category- or activity-specific reference levels, are constructed, including, for example, key parameters, assumptions, definitions, methodologies, data sources and models used; Tier 2 method was employed for Land subcategory under AFOLU while Tier 1 was used for the remaining subcategories under AFOLU."


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"(i)  Domestic institutional arrangements, public participation and engagement with local communities and indigenous peoples, in a gender-responsive manner;  Institutional arrangements: The Institutional arrangements for climate change implementation is established in the National Policy on Climate Change of 2016 through an inter-ministerial coordination structure.  The Policy establishes the Council of Ministers chaired by the Vice President of the country, which is the supreme decision making body in overseeing Climate Change interventions in the country."


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"(i) Domestic institutional arrangements, public participation and engagement with local communities and indigenous peoples, in a gender-responsive manner; Institutional arrangements: The Institutional arrangements for climate change implementation is established in the National Policy on Climate Change of 2016 through an  interministerial consultation structure.  The Policy establishes the Council of Ministers chaired by the Vice President of the Republic of Zambiaand is the supreme decision making body in overseeing Climate Change interventions in the country."


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"(ii)  a.  b.  c. Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate:  National circumstances, such as geography, climate, economy, sustainable development and poverty eradication;  Best practices and experience related to the preparation of the nationally determined contribution;  Other contextual aspirations and priorities acknowledged when joining the Paris Agreement  a.   Information on national circumstances can be found in Zambia\u2019s Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC, Chapter 2.  b.   Zambia has established institutional arrangements at the high-level decision- making bodies of the Republic of Zambia."


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"(iii) Approach used to address the effects of age-class structure in forests; Emissions and removals in managed forests in the period 2021 \u2013 2030 will be accounted for as the deviation from a projected forward-looking forest reference level, with regards to dynamic age-related forests characteristics.  (f.) Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the nationally determined contribution and, if applicable, estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including:  4 GRZ 2015: Zambia National Strategy to Reduce Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation\f  (i) How the reference indicators, baseline(s) and/or reference level(s), including, where applicable, sector-, category- or activity- specific reference levels, are constructed, including, for example, key parameters, assumptions, definitions, methodologies, data sources and models used; Tier 2 method was employed for Land subcategory under AFOLU while Tier 1 was used for the remaining subcategories under AFOLU."


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"(iv) Further technical information, as necessary; Not applicable.\f  (g) The intention to use voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, if applicable. Zambia intends to use voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to fulfil part of its target."


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"-  (iii) For climate forcers included in nationally determined contributions not covered by IPCC guidelines, information on how the climate forcers are estimated; For precursor emissions estimates, the European Environment Agency EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2019 was used.  (iv) Further technical information, as necessary; Not applicable.\f  (g) The intention to use voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, if applicable."


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"-  - For incineration and waste water, assuming GHG emissions to grow in line with population growth -  \f (ii) For Parties with nationally determined contributions that contain non greenhouse-gas components, information on assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable; Not applicable."


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"2 Substantial international support means adequate international resources, both bilateral and multilateral support estimated at USD $ 35 Billion.\f  Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Zambia for the timeframe 2015-2030 Updated as of 30th July 2021  Zambia intends to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 25% (at Business As Usual (BAU) level of international support prevailing in 2015) and towards 47% (with substantial international support) compared to 2010 levels."


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"31(c) \u201cParties strive to include all categories of anthropogenic emissions or removals in their nationally determined contributions and, once a source, sink or activity is included, continue to include it\u201d  31(d) \u201cParties shall provide an explanation of why any categories of anthropogenic emissions or removals are excluded\u201d  Zambia enhances its Nationally Determined Contribution by broadening the scope of sectors under mitigation by adding transport, liquid waste and coal (production, transportation and consumption), translating into three additional categories. This translates into additional three categories."


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"31(c) \u201cParties strive to include all categories of anthropogenic emissions or removals in their nationally determined contributions and, once a source, sink or activity is included, continue to include it\u201d  \u201cParties shall provide an explanation of why any categories of anthropogenic emissions or removals are excluded\u201d  By this submission Zambia enhances its Nationally Determined Contribution by broadening the scope of sectors under mitigation by adding transport, liquid waste and coal (production, transportation and consumption)."


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"A National Climate Change Learning Strategy was developed in 2020 to strengthen individual and institutional systemic capacities of the energy, forestry, health, agriculture and education sectors to enable them to deliver climate change.  Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Zambia\u2019s National Development Plan (7NDP) of 2017 to 2021 has embraced an integrated multi-sectoral approach. The country has domesticated the SDGs, the African Union Agenda 2063, among others, into its 7NDP. The 7NDP has mainstreamed 86% of SDGs goals and targets."


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"A baseline projection for transport was calculated through the following steps: 1. An assumption was made that the percent of Zambia\u2019s total emissions attributed to freight will reach current levels average levels in the SADC region (scaled by population) in 2050. 2. The annual growth rates required for this transition were then calculated. 3. This growth rate (8.85% pa) was then applied to the 2016 inventory emissions and projected out to 2050.  A baseline projection for forest land was calculated through the following steps: 1."


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"A countrywide vulnerability assessment to inform adaptation planning is underway and will be refleted in the adaptation component of the final revised NDC to be submitted in early 2021  Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals: (a) Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals corresponding to the Party\u2019s nationally determined contribution, consistent with decision paragraph and accounting guidance adopted by the CMA; Zambia used IPCC 2006 guidelines for both Third National Communication and BUR."


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"Adaptation actions in this NDC were focused on strategic productive systems (agriculture, wildlife and water), strategic infrastructure and health systems and enhanced capacity building, research, technology transfer and finance for adaptation. The country requires substantial resources to meet the means of implementation of these interventions."


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"All the categories were included in the baseline emissions in the INDC in accordance with Decision 1/CP.21 para. 31 (c). The country will at the latest by 31 December 2024 report a GHG inventory in accordance with 18/CMA.1 and report on progress towards its nationally determined contribution. For accounting relevant information, Zambia will use the accounting guidance in 4/CMA.1. For IPCC methodologies and metrics, see 5 (d).  Final accounting towards the target, that will take place in 2032, may depend resource availability."


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"All the categories were included in the baseline emissions in the NDC. The country will at the latest by 31 December 2024 report a GHG inventory in accordance with 18/CMA.1 and report on progress towards its nationally determined contribution. For accounting relevant information, Zambia will use the accounting guidance in 4/CMA.1. For IPCC methodologies and metrics, see 5 (d).  Final accounting towards the target, that will take place in 2032, may depend on resource availability."


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"Although Zambia is an LDC and could have prepared and communicate strategy, plan and actions for low greenhouse gas emissions development reflecting its special circumstances in line with Article 4 paragraph 6 of the Paris Agreement, the country opted to prepare a full-fledged NDC as a demonstration of its ambitious efforts to contribute to global effort  How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its (a) How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article Zambia\u2019s revised and updated NDC will result in substantial reduction of its emissions and thereby contribute to achieving to the objective of the Convention as set out in Article 2. b) How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards Article paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement  By reducing Zambia\u2019s emissions, this NDC contributes to the global goal to strengthen response in addressing climate change\f Annex 2 Indicators for Adaptation No."


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"By this submission Zambia enhances its NDC by broadening the scope of sectors under mitigation by adding transport, liquid waste and coal (production, transportation and consumption) and by elaborating the adaptation component of the NDC by developing indicators that will enable the country track progress on building resilience in both the human and physical systems and on adaptation actions.  1.1 Further information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of Zambia s NDC  Zambia has used the guidance on information to provide clarity, transparency and understanding in Decision 4/CMA.1 for information provided in the Annex to this submission, as applicable to its NDC."


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"By this submission Zambia enhances its NDC by broadening the scope of sectors under mitigation by adding transport, liquid waste and coal (production, transportation and consumption) and by elaborating the adaptation component of the NDC by developing indicators that will enable the country track progress on building resilience in both the human and physical systems and on adaptation actions.  1.1 Further information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of Zambia s NDC."


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"Capacity building in Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA), Sustainable Forest Management (SFM), Sustainable Fisheries and Aquaculture (SFA), Renewable Energy Technologies (RET), and Early Warning Systems (EWS), Change management and climate change planning. 2. Water technologies for savings, recycling, irrigation and sustainable management for household, agriculture and industrial purposes. 3. Development of an insurance market against climate change induced risks related to agriculture and infrastructure. 4. Mainstream climate change adaptation into country development plans and strategies."


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"Consequently, implementation and reporting on SDGs are coordinated through the institutional structures at national and sub-national levels using the Multisectoral approach. This approach is likely to be replicated in the country\u2019s 8NDP to run from 2022 to 2026."


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"Develop a National Wildlife Adaptation Strategy and ensure its implementation through supportive policies, local community, civil society and private sector participation. 3. Protection and conservation of water catchment areas and enhanced investment in water capture, storage and transfer (linked to agriculture, energy, ecological, industrial and domestic use purposes) in selected watersheds.  Program 2: Adaptation of strategic infrastructure and health systems Which include: 1. Institutionalize integrated land use planning compatible with sustainable management of natural resources and infrastructure development 2."


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"Develop a National Wildlife Adaptation Strategy and ensure its implementation through supportive policies, local community, civil society and private sector participation. 3. Protection and conservation of water catchment areas and enhanced investment in water capture, storage and transfer (linked to agriculture, energy, ecological, industrial and domestic use purposes) in selected watersheds. Program 2: Adaptation of strategic infrastructure and health systems Which include: 1. Institutionalize integrated land use planning compatible with sustainable management of natural resources and infrastructure development 2."


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"Early burning has been classified as a management practice. The two burning regimes are normally conducted from May-July and August-October for both early burning and late burning respectively.  (ii) Approach used to account for emissions and removals from harvested wood products; Not Estimated but will be undertaken once resources and information is available."


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"Energy \u2013 Stationary combustion Major mitigation themes are: 1) better access to electrical energy; 2) better resilience, transmission efficiency, and, interconnectivity of the electricity supply network, 3) greater energy efficiency of both generation and consumption; 4) increased generation of and increased use of renewable energy. The investments Zambia are making in low- carbon and carbon-neutral energy technologies are expected to reduce the energy intensity of our economic development, the carbon intensity of energy production, GHG emissions, and the long-term costs of mitigation."


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"Energy \u2013 Transport Major mitigation themes are: 1) improved fuel efficiency; 2) modal shift; 3) improved transport infrastructure.  Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) Major mitigation themes are: 1) increased energy efficiency of processes; 2) improvements in technology.  \f  Agriculture Major mitigation themes are: 1) conservation and sustainable agriculture; 2) efficient agriculture.  Waste Major mitigation themes are: 1) improved solid waste handling and disposal practices; 2) reduction in waste generation; 3) generation of biomethane from waste; 4) improved waste-water treatment practices."


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"Food security: Zambia s role in global food security in the context of climate change is to adapt to a changing climate, manage and use these resources sustainably, to secure food supplies while emissions of greenhouse gases are reduced."


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"Food security: Zambia s role in global food security in the context of climate change is to adapt to a changing climate, manage and use these resources sustainably, to secure food supplies while reducing greenhouse gas emissions."


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"For the AFOLU sector, emissions and removals the following reporting categories are included: forest land, cropland, grassland, and wetland (wetland remaining wetland only from 2026), including land use changes between the categories, and between these categories and settlements and other land. The five carbon pools above-ground biomass, below-ground biomass, litter, dead wood and soil organic matters are included. In addition, the carbon pool harvested wood products is included.\f  (c) How the Party has taken into consideration paragraph 31(c) and (d) of decision 1/CP.21  Para."


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"Forestry and Land Use Major mitigation themes are: 1) reduction in deforestation; 2) increase in afforestation and reforestation; 3) improved forest management; 4) careful agro-forestry practice.  Responding to the request in para. 31(d) of decision 1/CP.21, Zambia has not explicitly decided to exclude any sectors. Zambia has instead focussed its efforts on sectors with the greatest mitigation potential, with the greatest likelihood of rapid implementation, aligned where possible with the GHG inventory Key Category Analysis."


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"Further a National REDD+ Strategy and its Investment Plan were developed in 2017. Zambia also prepared the Techology Needs Assessment for both adaptation and mitigation in 2013.\f  (d) Target relative to the reference indicator, expressed numerically, for example in percentage or amount of reduction; At least 25% (20,000 Gg CO2 eq.) by 2030 against a base year of 2010 under the business as usual scenario with limited international support or By 47% (38,000 Gg CO2 eq.) with substantial international support."


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"Further information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding for the enhanced nationally determined contribution may be provided at a later date, when there is more clarity on the updated nationally determined contribution.\f  Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) of Zambia for the timeframe 2015-2030 Updated as of 23 December 2020  Zambia is committed to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by 25% (at Business As Usual (BAU) level of international support prevailing in 2015) and towards 47% (with substantial international support) compared to 2010 levels."


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"Gender equality: In 2018, the Government Republic of Zambia developed and launched a Climate Change Gender Action Plan (CCGAP) which is used to ensure that Zambia\u2019s climate change processes are gender-transformative and guarantee that women and men can have access to, participate in, and benefit equally from climate change initiatives.  Youth Participation: Zambia has put in place a National Youth Policy which provides for strategies and programs for youth participation in the development agenda."


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"Gender equality: In 2018, the Government Republic of Zambia with support from cooperating partners developed and launched a Climate Change Gender Action Plan (CCGAP) which ensures that Zambia\u2019s climate change processes mainstream gender considerations to guarantee that women and men can have access to, participate in, and benefit equally from climate change initiatives.  Youth actions: Education and training are important elements in enhancing the country\u2019s capacity to effectively undertake climate change actions."


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"Global warming potentials (GWP) for a 100 year time horizon from the IPCCs Second  Assessment Report was used to calculate CO2 equivalents for Third National Communications and Biennial Update Report(BUR)."


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"Global warming potentials (GWP) for a 100 year time horizon from the IPCCs Second Assessment Report was used to calculate CO2 equivalents for Third National Communications and Biennial Update Report(BUR). (e) Sector-, category- or activity-specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate, including, as applicable: (i) Approach to addressing emissions and subsequent removals from natural disturbances on managed lands; Disturbances have been identified as areas affected by late burning for various reasons such as use of fire for land preparation4."


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"How the Party considers that its nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances: (a) How the Party considers that its nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances; Zambia considers the updated NDC as fair and ambitious enough to contribute to low carbon and climate resilient economy by 2030 in accordance with its national circumstance and desire to become a high middle income and prosperous Nation by 2030."


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"How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its (a) How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article Zambia regards the long-term target of the Paris Agreement to be in line with Article 2 of the Convention. The answer to this question is therefore explained under 6a."


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"However, charcoal and fuel wood production including clearance of forest land for agriculture and settlement expansion has resulted in high rates of deforestation and increased greenhouse gas emissions. The country\u2019s annual deforestation rate was estimated at 276,021 hectares per annum.  It has been projected that climate change impacts could slow the development process of the country and could cost Zambia approximately USD $13.8 billion loss in GDP."


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"In order to ensure sustained implementation of education and training activities in the country, the National Policy on Education was formulated to provide a framework for education at primary and secondary school levels. In addition, a National Climate Change Learning Strategy has been developed to strengthen individual and institutional systemic capacities of the energy, forestry, health, agriculture and education sectors to enable them to deliver climate change.  Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): Zambia\u2019s current National Development Plan (7NDP) has embraced an integrated multisectoral approach."


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"In order to prevent economic losses resulting from impacts of climate change, the Government of Zambia (GRZ) has integrated climate change concerns in its policies, programmes, plans and strategies to support a low carbon and climate-resilient development pathway and the attainment of the middle-income status envisioned in the country\u2019s Vision 2030.  \f b.  c. Best practices and experience related to the preparation of the nationally determined contribution;  Other contextual aspirations and priorities acknowledged when joining the Paris Agreement b."


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"In the initial NDC, reference emissions were estimated using the IPCC 1996 Guidelines whereas in the revised NDC IPCC 2006 Guidelines were used. Time frames and/or periods for implementation: (a) Time frame and/or period for implementation, including start and end date, consistent with any further relevant decision adopted by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA);  (b) Whether it is a single-year or multi-year target, as applicable. Single-year target in 2030."


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"Indicator Baseline in 2020 Desired Status by 2030 Actual Status in 2030  1.  Level of Resilience of natural or physical systems achieved low high  2.  Level of  adaptive capacity of human system attained  low  high  3.  Level of knowledge  base for adaptation planning and response  medium  high  4.  Level of capacity of human resource base for addressing climate change low high"


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"Information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of Zambia\u2019s NDC  Para Guidance in decision 4/CMA.1 ICTU guidance as applicable to Zambia s NDC Quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year): (a) Reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s); Base year: 2010 (b) Quantifiable information on the reference indicators, their values in the reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s), and, as applicable, in the target year; The reference indicator has been quantified based on national total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions with 2010 as the base year."


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"Information necessary for clarity, transparency and understanding (ICTU) of Zambia\u2019s NDC  Para Guidance in decision 4/CMA.1 ICTU guidance as applicable to Zambia s NDC Quantifiable information on the reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year): (a) Reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s); Base year: 2010 (b) Quantifiable information on the reference indicators, their values in the reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s), and, as applicable, in the target year; The reference indicator will be quantified based on national total greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, except AFOLU  in the base year 2010."


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"It has established the Council of Ministers on Climate Change, chaired by the Vice President of the Republic of Zambia which is the supreme decision-making body in overseeing Climate Change interventions in the country."


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"It provides policy guidance in climate change programming, mainstreaming, resource mobilization, monitoring and evaluation.  The Steering Committee of Permanent Secretaries as the advisory body to the Council of Ministers on policy and programme coordination and implementation. The Steering Committee is chaired by the ministry responsible for development planning to ensure climate change is mainstreamed in the development planning process."


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"It provides policy guidance on climate change programming, mainstreaming, resource mobilization, monitoring and evaluation.  The Steering Committee of Permanent Secretaries is the advisory body to the Council of Ministers on policy and programme coordination and implementation. The Steering Committee is chaired by the ministry responsible for development planning to ensure climate change is mainstreamed in the development planning process."


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"Mainstream climate change in the National Health Policy, Environmental Health (EH) Policy, and Water and Sanitation Policy. 3. Enhance decentralized climate information services for early warning and long-term projections on the effects of climate change to support sustainable management of the production systems, infrastructure development and public health.  Program 3: Enhanced capacity building, research, technology transfer and finance for adaptation Which include: 1."


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"Mainstream climate change in the National Health Policy, Environmental Health (EH) Policy, and Water and Sanitation Policy. 3. Enhance decentralized climate information services for early warning and long-term projections on the effects of climate change to support sustainable management of the production systems, infrastructure development and public health. Program 3: Enhanced capacity building, research, technology transfer and finance for adaptation Which include: 1."


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"Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties\u2019 adaptation actions Zambia has identified several mitigation benefits from adaptation actions including under Climate Smart Agriculture and sustainable forest management where adaptation measures have also resulted in substantial emissions reductions  (e) Sectoral targets A quantitative analysis of sectoral targets has not yet been undertaken and therefore sectoral targets have not been considered in this submission. These will be undertaken once resources and information are available."


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"Planning processes:\f (a) Information on the planning processes that the Party undertook to prepare its nationally determined contribution and, if available, on the Party\u2019s implementation plans, including, as appropriate: The mitigation and adaptation programs elaborated in this NDC are integrated in the Seventh National Development Plan (7NDP) \u2013 2017 to 2021 and its successive plans.  Planning for adaptation and mitigation programs under the Zambia\u2019s NDC."


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"Planning processes: (a) Information on the planning processes that the Party undertook to prepare its nationally determined contribution and, if available, on the Party\u2019s implementation plans, including, as appropriate: The mitigation and adaptation programs elaborated in this NDC are integrated in the Seventh National Development Plan (7NDP) and its successive plans. Planning for adaptation and mitigation programs under the Zambia\u2019s NDC."


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"Population data was obtained from from Worldometer (2021) A baseline projection for waste was calculated: - For solid waste, assuming that the currently low amount of waste generation per capita increases with GDP and that total amount of waste increases with population. Furthermore, assuming that the currently low rate of collection and landfilling of waste increases up to 80% by 2050."


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"Preliminary indicators for tracking progress on adaptation are provided in Annex 2.  \f Assumptions and methodological approaches, including those for estimating and accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and, as appropriate, removals: (a) Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals corresponding to the Party\u2019s nationally determined contribution, consistent with decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 31, and accounting guidance adopted by the CMA; Zambia used IPCC 2006 guidelines for both the Third National Communication (TNC) and the Biennual Update Report (BUR)."


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"REPUBLIC OF ZAMBIA  This document presents a revised and updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for Zambia to the Paris Agreement on climate change. This is pursuant to Decision 1/CP.19, 1/CP.20 and 1/CP.21 of the Conference of Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for countries to enhance their climate ambitions and update their Nationally Determined Contributions by 2020.  Zambia\u2019s first NDC was submitted on 9th December, 2016, and consisted of both mitigation and adaptation components based on the country\u2019s national circumstances."


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"Scope and coverage: (a) General description of the target; This NDC is submitted with a conditional pledge of reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 25% (20,000 Gg CO2 eq.) by 2030 against a base year of 2010 under the BAU scenario with levels of international support prevailing in 2015  or by 47% (38,000 Gg CO2 eq.) with substantial international support."


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"Sub-National structures to coordinate climate change implementation at the sub-national level. \f  (ii)  a.  Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate:  National circumstances, such as geography, climate, economy, sustainable development and poverty eradication;  a.)   Zambia has a total surface area of 752,614 km2 out of which 99 percent is made up of land area and 1percent is covered by water. The country\u2019s population was estimated at 13,092,666 in 2010 with approximately 60.5 percent living in rural areas and 39.5 percent lived in urban areas."


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"The Development Bank of Zambia was recently accredited as the National Implementing Entity (NIE) for Direct Access under the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and Zambia is in the process of establishing a National Climate Change Fund (NCCF)."


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"The National Adaptation Planning process being undertaken by Government provides a good basis for long term adaptation programming and mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the existing national planning processes.  The National Designated Authority (NDA) for the Green Climate Fund has already been designated and is expected to play a key role of \u201cclearing house or entity\u201d for climate change projects to be funded from GCF in Zambia."


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"The National Adaptation Planning process being undertaken by Government provides a good basis for long term adaptation programming and mainstreaming of climate change adaptation into the national planning and budgeting processes.  The National Designated Authority (NDA) for the Green Climate Fund has already been designated and is expected to play a key role of \u201cclearing house or entity\u201d for climate change projects to be funded from GCF in Zambia."


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"The Technical Committee on Climate Change comprises representatives from relevant Ministries and a broad range of other stakeholders, including private sector, civil society, financial institutions, among others. The Technical Committee is the main technical advisory body to the Steering Committee of Permanent Secretaries. The Technical Committee is chaired by the Ministry responsible for Climate Change implementation under which there is a dedicated department on climate change which is responsible for coordinating climate change implementation in Zambia."


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"The Technical Committee on Climate Change comprising representatives from relevant Ministries and a broad range of other stakeholders, including private sector, civil society, financial instituions, among others. The Technical Committee is the main technical advisory body to the Steering Committee of Permanent Secretaries. The Technical Committee is chaired by the Ministry responsible for Climate Change implementation under which there isa dedicated department on climate change which is responsible for coordinating climate change implementation in Zambia."


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"The base year emission level was 120,604 Gg CO2-  3 The emission reduction targets of 25% with limited international support and  47% with substantial international support was calculated based on the 1996 IPCC guidelines, however there has been a recalculation  using the 2006 IPCC guidelines in the Third National Communication and the First Biennial Update Report which resulted in a base year emission level of 120,604 Gg CO2 equivalents."


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"The base year emission level was about 120,605 Gg CO2-equivalents. (c) For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or polices and measures as components of nationally determined contributions where paragraph above is not applicable, Parties to provide other relevant information; Not applicable."


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"The baseline projection for  all sub-sectors under the Stationary Energy  sector was calculated through the following steps: 1. Applying a GDP growth rate to 2050. 2. Assuming this GDP growth rate percentage will reach the average of 2.74% (Trading Economics, 2021) in 2030, and will reach the same levels as the EU today in 2050 (EC, 2020). 3. This equates to a growth rate of 3% pa up to 2030 and then a lower growth rate of 2.8% pa for the years 2030- 2050."


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"The country has domesticated the SDGs, the AU Agenda 2063, among others, into its 7NDP. The 7NDP has mainstreamed 86% of SDGs goals and targets. Consequently, implementation and reporting on SDGs are coordinated through the institutional structures at national and sub-national levels using the Cluster approach."


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"The country\u2019s NDC is guided by the country\u2019s desire to reduce poverty, address the challenges of COVID 19, attainment of low carbon and climate resilient economy through sustainable development and become a middle income and prosperous nation by 2030 in line with the country\u2019s Vision 2030. The successful implementation of Zambia\u2019s NDC is conditional and dependent on the level of support to be provided through the Convention and other multilateral and bilateral arrangements."


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"The extent of implementation of the intended contribution is contingent upon the financial resources, capacity and technologies available to the country through both domestic and international support to stimulate investments and innovation.  (i) As a minimal contributor to global GHG emissions, Zambia places significant importance and priority on adaptation to the effects of climate change in order to enhance the resilience of its population, ecosystems, infrastructure, productive and health systems."


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"The extent of implementation of the intended contribution is contingent upon the financial resources, capacity and technologies available to the country through both domestic and international support to stimulate investments and innovation.  (i) As one of the least contributors to global GHG emissions, Zambia places significant importance and priority on adaptation to the effects of climate change in order to enhance the resilience of its population, ecosystems, infrastructure, productive and health systems."


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"The key socio-economic sectors identified as most vulnerable to climate change impacts include: agriculture, water, forestry, energy, wildlife, infrastructure and health. All the adaptation actions have strong synergies with mitigation actions. (ii) In terms of implementation, Zambia will take a landscape approach at watershed level to enhance synergies between adaptation and mitigation actions. Zambia has six major watersheds: Tanganyika; Luapula; Chambeshi; Luangwa; Kafue; and Zambezi. The adaptation measures comprise three (3) goals/programs and 13 priority actions, which will also result in mitigation co benefits."


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"The key socio-economic sectors identified as most vulnerable to climate change impacts include: agriculture, water, forestry, energy, wildlife, infrastructure and health. All the adaptation actions have strong synergies with mitigation actions. (ii) In terms of implementation, Zambia will take a landscape approach at watershed level to enhance synergies between adaptation and mitigation actions. Zambia has six major watersheds: Tanganyika; Luapula; Chambeshi; Luangwa; Kafue; and Zambezi. The adaptation measures comprise three (3) goals/programs and 13 priority actions."


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"The multisectoral institutional framework for coordinating climate change which is described under Section 4 (a) (i) in this document is a good practice. For handling a cross cutting issue like climate change  c.   Zambia aspires to become a prosperous low carbon and climate resilient middle income country by 2030 as enshrined in its Vision 2030.\f c. Other contextual aspirations and priorities acknowledged when joining the Paris Agreement - continued."


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"The net CO2 emissions are the sum of the emissions and removals. Here, we use the current deforestation rate of 0.7% (Government of the Republic of Zambia, 2020b) to project forward the changes in a) emissions and b) removals. A baseline projection for cropland was calculated by: 1. Using a population growth rate to determine the projected CO2 emissions. By using a population growth rate of 2.9% up to 2030 and then a lower growth rate of 2.48% for the period of 2030-2050."


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"The population growth rate was approximately 2.8 percent.  In 2010, Zambia\u2019s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 7.6 percent compared to 3.5 percent in 2000. This economic growth rate was largely driven by agriculture, infrastructure developments including increased metal production following a rebound in copper prices on international markets and provision of various tax incentives in the agricultural and mining sectors."


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"The preparation of the NDC was done with broad stakeholder participation with all stakeholders including Government institutions, civil society, private sector and sub- national stakeholders consulted, while ensuring gender balance in the process  The effectiveness of the NDC implementation will be ensured through the ongoing development and strengthening of Implementation Framework and Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) systems to track progress of implementation of both the mitigation and adaptation programs."


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"The process is on-going to select a National Implementing Entity (NIE) and establishing a National Climate Change Fund (NCCF).  The effectiveness of the NDC implementation will be ensured through the ongoing development and strengthening of existing Monitoring Reporting and Verification (MRV) systems to track progress of implementation of both the mitigation and adaptation programs."


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"The programs include: Program 1: Adaptation of strategic productive systems (agriculture, wildlife, water) Which include: 1. Guaranteed food security through diversification and promotion of Climate Smart Agricultural (CSA) practices for crop, livestock and fisheries production including conservation of germplasm for land races and their wild relatives. \f  such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture and fisheries. 2."


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"The programs include: Program 1: Adaptation of strategic productive systems (agriculture, wildlife, water) Which include: 1. Guaranteed food security through diversification and promotion of Climate Smart Agricultural (CSA) practices for crop, livestock and fisheries production including conservation of germplasm for land races and their wild relatives.  \f  such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture and fisheries. 2."


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"The successful implementation of Zambia\u2019s NDC is conditional and dependent on the level of support to be provided through the Convention and other multilateral and bilateral arrangements. (b) Fairness considerations, including reflecting on equity; Zambia regards its NDC to represent its fair share of the efforts to achieve the global long-term goal of the Paris Agreement."


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"These challenges are exacerbated by increased frequency of extreme weather events such as rainfall variation, floods and droughts caused by climate change, and in the last two years, effects of the Covid pandemic.  About one sixth of the rural population depends heavily on forests and non-forest resources for their livelihood and contribute approximately 20 percent to rural household incomes."


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"This NDC was submitted with a conditional pledge of reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 25% (20,000 Gg CO2 eq.) by 2030 against a base year of 2010 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario with limited international support or by 47% (38,000 Gg CO2 eq.) with substantial international support. The mitigation actions were focused on three programmes: (1) Sustainable forest management; (2) Sustainable agriculture, and; (3) Renewable energy and energy efficiency."


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"This NDC was submitted with a conditional pledge of reducing Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions by 25% (20,000 Gg CO2 eq.) by 2030 against a base year of 2010 under the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario with limited international support1 or by 47% (38,000 Gg CO2 eq.) with substantial international support2. The mitigation actions were focused on three programmes:  (1) Sustainable forest management; (2) Sustainable agriculture, and; (3) Renewable energy and energy efficiency."


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"This approach has fostered doing more with less and has strengthened synergies and partnerships resulting into multi-sectoral responses to development challenges whose achievements include:  \f (b)  (c) Specific information applicable to Parties, including regional economic integration organizations and their member States, that have reached an agreement to act jointly under Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement, including the Parties that agreed to act jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 16\u201318, of the Paris Agreement;  How the Party\u2019s preparation of its nationally determined contribution has been informed by the outcomes of the global stocktake, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 9, of the Paris Agreement;  Not applicable  Zambia s climate targets and polices are developed in the context of best available science and hence the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 degrees, has been central to the assessment of the nationally determined contribution."


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"This document presents a revised and updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) for Zambia to the Paris Agreement on climate change. This pursuant to Decision 1/CP.19, 1/CP.20 and 1/CP.21 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for countries to enhance their climate ambitions and update their Nationally Determined Contributions by 2020.  Zambia\u2019s first NDC was submitted on 9th December, 2016, and consisted of both mitigation and adaptation components based on the country\u2019s national circumstances."


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"This is supported by Steering Committee of Permanent Secretaries and Technical Committee on Climate Change, and this ensures broad political ownership and effective coordination of the climate change interventions in the country.  c.   Zambia aspires to become a prosperous middle income country by 2010 as enshrined in its Vision 2030.\f c. Other contextual aspirations and priorities acknowledged when joining the Paris Agreement - continued."


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"This translates into additional categories which demonstrates the consideration of paragraph 31(c) and (d) of decision  Responding to the request in para. 31(c) of decision 1/CP.21, through this submission, Zambia demonstrates it has striven to enhance its NDC by broadening the scope of sectors which contribute to the country\u2019s mitigation efforts. Zambia is now considering all sectors and categories as potential contributors to its mitigation efforts."


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"Time frames and/or periods for implementation: (a) Time frame and/or period for implementation, including start and end date, consistent with any further relevant decision adopted by the Conference of the Parties serving as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA); (b) Whether it is a single-year or multi-year target, as applicable. Single-year target in 2030."


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"Waste-categories include; solid waste disposal, biological treatment of solid waste, Incineration and Open Burning of Waste, and Wastewater Treatment and Discharge.  These sectors were selected because they are key categories and emerging sectors that are contributing to the emission profile of the country. Gases Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O),  \f  (c) How the Party has taken into consideration paragraph 31(c) and (d) of decision 1/CP.21  Para."


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"Zambia demonstrates it has enhanced its NDC by broadening the scope of sectors which contribute to the country\u2019s mitigation efforts. Industrial Processes and Product Use is not included in the NDC due to relatively very low emissions and mitigation potential. In the subsequent submissions, Zambia will endeavour to consider all sectors and categories as potential contributors to its mitigation efforts."


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"Zambia does not rule out the possibility of using market based mechanisms in meeting emission reduction target. (b) Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for the implementation of policies and measures or strategies in the nationally determined contribution; Not applicable."


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"Zambia has focussed its efforts on sectors with the greatest mitigation potential, with the greatest likelihood of rapid implementation, aligned where possible with the GHG inventory Key Category Analysis, as the country progressively moves towards an economy wide approach.  (d) Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties\u2019 adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans, including description of specific projects, measures and initiatives of Parties\u2019 adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans."


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"Zambia has used the guidance on information to provide clarity, transparency and understanding in Decision 4/CMA.1 for information provided in the Annex to this submission, as applicable to its NDC.  1 Limited international support means the domestic resources that the country is able to mobilise including the prevailing international resources (Business as Usual resources) that the country was receiving as of 2015  and  estimated  at USD $ 15 Billion."


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"Zambia intends to use voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement to fulfil part of its contribution  How the Party considers that its nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances: (a) How the Party considers that its nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances; Zambia considers the updated NDC as fair and ambitious enough to contribute to low carbon and climate resilient economy by 2030 in accordance with its national circumstance and desire to become a low carbon and climate resilient middle income and prosperous country by 2030."


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"Zambia is a low contributor to the global greenhouse gas emission. In developing the NDC, Zambia considered the general principles and provisions of the Convention and the Paris Agreement, especially those related to Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR) and equitable access to atmospheric space."


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"Zambia is low contributor to the global greenhouse gas emission. In developing the NDC, Zambia considered the general principles and provisions of the Convention especially those related to Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR) and equitable access to atmospheric space. The country\u2019s NDC is guided by the country\u2019s desire to reduce poverty, attainment low carbon climate resilient economy, sustainable development and become a high middle income and prosperous nation by 2030 in line the country\u2019s Vision 2030."


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"Zambia is prioritising mitigation actions that it considers likely to be effective and reliable, targeted where possible at GHG inventory key categories, and, cost-effective. For brevity, this NDC presents a summary of the mitigation actions by sector, and not by category."


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"Zambia may provide further information to facilitate clarity, transparency and understanding. (ii) For Parties with nationally determined contributions that contain non greenhouse-gas components, information on assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable; Not applicable. (iii) For climate forcers included in nationally determined contributions not covered by IPCC guidelines, information on how the climate forcers are estimated; For precursor emissions estimates, the European Environment Agency EMEP/EEA air pollutant emission inventory guidebook 2019 were used."


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"Zambia will also participate in market based mechanisms on emission reductions. (b) Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for the implementation of policies and measures or strategies in the nationally determined contribution; Not applicable."


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"Zambia will report on progress towards its nationally determined contribution through the transparency framework under the Paris Agreement, and account for its cooperation with the European Union in a manner consistent with the guidance adopted by CMA and further guidance agreed by the CMA."


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"Zambia\u2019s agricultural sector is the socio-economic backbone of the rural population, with 60 percent being dependent on the sector as the main source of income and livelihood. Many of the farmers are poor and engage in low-productivity rain-fed subsistence farming resulting from inadequate resources for the purchase of inputs, use of inappropriate farming practices and failure to fully develop the irrigation potential."


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"b) How the nationally determined contribution contributes towards Article paragraph and Article 4, paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement  See 6a and 7a."


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"considered in developing the nationally determined contribution; Specific projects, measures and activities to be implemented to contribute to mitigation co- benefits, including information on adaptation plans that also yield mitigation co- benefits, which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, water resources, coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, agriculture and forestry; and economic diversification actions, which may cover, but are not limited to, sectors The intended contribution on adaptation stated here is for the purposes of information so that an overview of the range of planned climate-related actions of the country is made known; it does not constitute an international obligation to the country."


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"*NB: A more comprehensive exercise such as the National Adaptation Planning (NAP) process will advance the assessment of the countries  vulnerability, adaptation needs and costs."


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", Ndaimani, H., Tagwireyi, P., et al. (2020). Futuristic climate change scenario predicts a shrinking habitat for the African elephant (loxodanta Africana): evidence from Hwange National Park Zimbabwe. Eur J Wildl Res 66, 1. 17  GoZ (undated), Zimbabwe\u2019s Fifth National Report to the Convention on Biodiversity. Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate. Harare.\f \u2022\ufffd Increased burdens for women, as they have to walk long distances and spend more time in search of water for domestic purposes."


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"- The Disaster Risk Management Bill - Academic research for Regional Climate Modeling, will build on climate scenarios and IPCC reports and guidelines\f  Indicators: - Number of people vulnerable to climate change impacts; Access to water; Water Stress Levels; Level of awareness; Livestock productivity; Proportion of population undernourished, Inventory of adopted climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies, levels of project yields to 2030 as planned interventions are rolled out and n\u00b0 of hectares with drought resistant crops under cultivation."


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"- The Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessments facilitated by the Zimbabwe Vulnerability Assessment Committee (ZIMVAC) advances the assessment of the countries  vulnerabilities. - Performance matrices from the Climate Change Response Strategy will be used. - The Drought Mitigation Strategy will provide guidance for monitoring progress toward alleviating impacts from droughts. - ZIMSTAT Surveys e.g. crop & livestock surveys will also be used - The CAADP and ZAIP monitoring frameworks will also be considered."


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"- The existing INDC National Steering Committee will continue working closely with the Climate Change Management Department in facilitating the accounting and monitoring of the INDC. - International best practice guidelines for developing adaptation plans and (I)NDCs such as Guidelines for Developing Countries produced by the African Negotiators, guiding documents from the UNFCCC, UNDP or UNEP, as well as relevant documents from think-tanks such as the World Resource Institute will also be considered."


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"- Various indices for the nation\u2019s resilience to climate change  Reporting - National Communications to the UNFCCC. - Following any reporting standards for NDCs to establish under the new global climate agreement at COP21 or subsequent COPs. - Internal food and nutrition security reports for the cabinet under the National Early Warning Unit as well as the ZimVAC reports up to 2030. - Crop yield assessments by the Ministry of Agriculture, Mechanisation and Irrigation Development.  2.2."


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"13  Rieckmann, A., Tamason, C. C., Gurley, E. S., Rod, N. H., Jensen, P. K. M. Exploring Droughts and Floods and their Association with Cholera Outbreaks in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Register-Based Ecological Study from 1990 to 2010. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg., 98(5), 2018, pp.1269-1274.\f Slow-onset changes in climate also cause reductions in water supply."


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"14  Davis & Hirji (2014), Climate Change and Water Resources Planning, Development and Management in Zimbabwe. World Bank Issues Paper. 15  MLAWCRR (2020), National Water Resources Master Plan 2020-2040."


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"18  National Adaptation Plan: Adaptational Prioritisation Report (2021); Zimbabwe Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (2021); Zimbabwe GCF Country Programme (2020); Zimbabwe Baseline Report on Economic Development (2012) 19  In climate change modelling, RCP stands for representative greenhouse gas concentration (not emissions trajectory) pathway that is adopted by the IPCC to describe different climate futures whose likelihood is estimated by the GHG emissions in the emissions to come."


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"23  PM2.5, NOx, Sulphur Dioxide, non-methane VOCs, carbon monoxide\f Table 3: Coverage of sectors and GHGs in the Revised NDC IPCC Sectors covered in baseline Economic sectors covered in mitigation actions Gases Energy (Consumption across all sectors) Power generation and transmission Road transportation Residential households Manufacturing industry, construction IPPU Cement production Ferro alloy, Iron and steel Fertiliser production Air-conditioning, refrigeration AFOLU Forestry Agriculture Other Land Use Waste Municipal Solid waste management The current status in terms of total GHG emissions The analysis carried out to inform the NDC update estimates that in 2017, Zimbabwe\u2019s net GHG emissions were 35.84 MtCO2eq.24  The Energy sector; and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector contributed the majority of the emissions in 2017 (33% and 54%, respectively), followed by Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), and Waste."


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"26 The Government of Zimbabwe recognises that gender equality is central to climate action and a prerequisite for poverty reduction, food and nutrition security and sustainable development."


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"5% shift from private car to public transport in 2030 LEDS The success in the implementation of the mitigation measures in the energy sector will largely depend on overcoming a number of barriers. The main challenge is a lack of funding for large capital projects. The electricity grid will also require upgrading in order to accommodate the numerous renewable energy projects that are planned."


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"7  ICLEI (2021) Zimbabwe Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Report; World Bank (2020) Climate Risk Country Profile - Zimbabwe 8  \u201cThe presence of people, livelihoods, species or ecosystems, environmental functions, services, and resources, infrastructure, or economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected\u201d (IPCC, 2018). Full IPCC AR5 Glossary available at:   9  Stockholm Environment Institute (2016). Introducing the Transnational Climate Impacts Index: Indicators of country-level exposure \u2013 methodology report. Working Paper 2016-07."


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"A High- Level NDC Steering committee with key Government ministries and NDC Technical Committees drawn from across Government ministries and stakeholders such as development partners, civil society, private sector, research and academia are in place to drive NDC development and implementation. ii. Contextual matters, including, inter alia, as appropriate:\f ICTU category Response a. National circumstances, such as geography, climate, economy, sustainable development, and poverty eradication; Please refer to Zimbabwe\u2019s First Biennial Update Report (BUR1). The NDS1 covers other planned sustainable development aspects. b."


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"A shortlist of 17 mitigation actions were selected to be included in the NDC based on agreed selection criteria including their mitigation potential, indicative implementation timeline and plans, and alignment with national development goals and targets. Whilst the INDC only covered energy-related emissions, Zimbabwe\u2019s revised baseline and mitigation target has been expanded to include emissions from all sectors, including Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU), Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU), and Waste. This is a significant increase in ambition from the INDC."


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"Abbreviation Definition NCCRS National Climate Change Response Strategy NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NDCSF NDC Support Facility National Development Strategy 1 NIE National Implementing Entity NMVOCs Non-methane volatile organic compounds NPV Net Present Value SDR Social Discount Rate R&D Research and Development RCP Representative greenhouse gas Concentration Pathway REDD+ Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation SAPP Southern Africa Power Pool SDG Sustainable Development Goal SLCPs Short-lived Climate Pollutants SEI Stockholm Environment Institute Tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change US$ United States Dollar VOC Volatile Organic Compounds ZIMREF Zimbabwe Reconstruction Fund Table Summarising Changes from the INDC Parameter 2021 Revised NDC Adaptation INDC adaptation measures focused on the agriculture sector."


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"Actions under this measure are expected to increase their adaptive capacity by providing the tools and knowledge to better manage water resources and to reduce their sensitivity by increasing the availability of water. Co-benefits This measure is expected to contribute to achieving all SDGs. As a large number of women are responsible for collecting water for households, they lack the time and resources to focus on other income-generating activities."


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"Adaptation benefits Actions under this measure would benefit all sectors by increasing their adaptive capacity through improving knowledge of future events and improving systems to prevent, prepare for, and/or manage their consequences. Adaptation activities would reduce exposure of key vulnerable groups located in hazard-prone areas by allowing them to relocate when hazards are foreseen. Co-benefits This measure is expected to contribute to achieving all SDGs, except SDGs 14 and 16."


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"Adaptation measures are now being planned across the economy and will be formalised in the forthcoming National Adaptation Plan that is expected to be completed by December 31st 2021. IPCC sectors covered in mitigation analysis Energy Sector emissions only Expanded to include additional sectors for Energy; Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU); Waste; and Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU). Greenhouse gases (GHG) covered Carbon dioxide (CO2), methane Hydrofluorocarbons."


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"Additional climate policies have been adopted since 2015, including the National Climate Policy, Low Emission Development Strategy, National Adaptation Plan Roadmap, Third National Communication to the UNFCCC, the 2017 System Development Plan, the Renewable Energy Policy, Biofuels Policy, Revised National Gender Policy and Implementation Plan, National Water Resources Master Plan, (draft) National Agriculture Policy Framework, Climate- Smart Agricultural Investment Plan, National Industrial Development Policy and Environmental Management Act."


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"Affordable sources of energy will be required to fuel Zimbabwe\u2019s economic growth and currently investments in capital intensive clean energy capacities are limited. In this regard, Zimbabwe s INDC has been structured to detail opportunities, gaps and constraints.  1.5. Zimbabwe\u2019s INDC Development Process  With the guidance of the Office of the President and Cabinet, the Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate spearheaded the development of this INDC."


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"After prioritisation of issues and several reviews internally and externally, the contributions were approved by the country\u2019s high level which is responsible for overall policy direction and facilitating implementation, monitoring and evaluation. The Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate with the guidance from the Office of the President and Cabinet will be responsible for developing accounting as well as the monitoring and evaluation framework for the transparent and successful implementation of the intended contributions.  2.0."


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"Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) The AFOLU sector is currently the biggest contributor to GHG emissions in Zimbabwe, accounting for 54% of GHG emissions in 2017. The GHG emissions in the AFOLU sector have been increasing in the past 30 years. Historical emission and removals data from the Zimbabwe\u2019s first Biennial Update Report to the UNFCCC shows that the AFOLU sector was a net sink between 1990 and 1993, however, the sector became an increasing net source from 1994 to 2017."


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"Among the key assets most exposed to hazards include: dams, sewer lines, roads/bridges, powerlines, buildings, telecommunication facilities, mine shafts, recreation facilities, manufacturing plants, irrigation infrastructure (as of 2017, Zimbabwe\u2019s land area under irrigation totalled 110,832 ha15) and post-harvest crop storage facilities. Impacts Following extreme weather events, assets can suffer physical damages that limit or prevent their functioning."


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"Approximately, 80% of the rural population\u2019s livelihoods are dependent on rain fed agriculture making them highly vulnerable to climate change induced weather extremes, variability and climate change impacts. This makes climate change adaptation in the agricultural sector a national priority, demanding policy direction at the highest level. At the same time, the agricultural sector also provides opportunities for climate change mitigation through initiatives such as Climate Smart Agriculture (CSA) and sustainable agro-forest-based adaptation and management practices."


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"Article Two of the Paris Agreement seeks to enhance implementation of the Convention by: \u2022\ufffd limit the temperature increase to 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels, recognizing that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change; \u2022\ufffd Increasing\ufffdthe\ufffd ability\ufffdto\ufffd adapt\ufffdto\ufffdthe\ufffd adverse\ufffd impacts\ufffd of\ufffd climate\ufffd change\ufffd and\ufffd foster\ufffd climate\ufffd resilience and low greenhouse gas emissions development, in a manner that does not threaten food production; and \u2022\ufffd Making\ufffdfinance\ufffdflows\ufffdconsistent\ufffdwith\ufffda\ufffdpathway\ufffdtowards\ufffdlow\ufffdgreenhouse\ufffdgas\ufffdemissions\ufffdand\ufffd climate-resilient development."


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"As Zimbabwe strives to mainstream climate change in all socio- economic sectors, the proposed mitigation options will be implemented in line with the country\u2019s national plans and programmes. 9. Means of Implementation Support Needs:  Conditional actions will be implemented subject to availability of affordable international financial support, investment, ability to leverage on our resources, technology development and transfer and capacity development as well as continued improvement in our national circumstances and creation of enabling environment."


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"As Zimbabwe strives to mainstream climate change in all socio-economic sectors, the proposed mitigation and adaptation options will be implemented in line with the country\u2019s national budget, plans, capital projects and programmes. Institutional responsibilities for implementation of the various adaptation and mitigation measures are spread across government ministries, local authorities and private sector organisations among others. Table 9 below details the roles of different organisations across sectors. Zimbabwe is currently developing a roadmap to operationalise the Enhanced Transparency Framework under the Paris Agreement."


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"As outlined in the first NDC, Zimbabwe also intends to leverage on its resources through the sale of carbon credits or emission reductions units through international and regional carbon markets and/or carbon pricing mechanisms to mobilise more resources for managing climate change. National Climate Change Fund The Government of Zimbabwe is establishing the National Climate Change Fund (NCCF), which was proposed in the National Climate Policy. The custodian of the NCCF is the Ministry responsible for climate change management."


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"As part of its commitment to this global cause, Zimbabwe is committed to addressing climate change as an active party to the UNFCCC whilst recognising the founding principles which include protecting the climate system for the benefit of present and future generations on the basis of equity and Common But Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC). The country\u2019s main climate change thrust remains adaptation and poverty reduction."


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"As part of the update of the NDC, an assessment was made of the potential gender impacts of the policies and measures needed to deliver the mitigation contribution, drawing on previous analysis.27 As a result of this analysis the many gender-related benefits of the measures in each sector were highlighted to help Zimbabwe plan future policies in a way that mitigates potential negative impacts on gender equality."


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"At the same time, families face a decrease in savings, as product prices increase during drought years by 30 to 40%, increasing households\u2019 expenditures. During the 2015\u20132016 drought the price of cattle in high rainfall areas ranged from $350\u2013$450, but communities in drought-affected districts were selling cattle for as little as $20 - $60 to buy food."


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"At this stage and for the summative purposes of this high-level NDC report, Zimbabwe is initially focusing on four high-level priority adaptation measures, namely to: \u2022\ufffd Develop,\ufffdimplement\ufffdand\ufffdscale-up\ufffdclimate\ufffdsmart\ufffdagriculture\ufffdsolutions\ufffdand\ufffdstrengthen\ufffdagricultural\ufffd value chains and markets; \u2022\ufffd Enhance\ufffdearly\ufffdwarning\ufffdand\ufffdclimate-related\ufffddisaster\ufffdrisk\ufffdreduction\ufffdsystems\ufffd(including\ufffdinformation\ufffd management systems); \u2022\ufffd Ensure\ufffdclimate\ufffdresilient\ufffdinfrastructure\ufffddesigns\ufffdand\ufffddevelopment;\ufffdand \u2022\ufffd Develop\ufffdand\ufffdpromote\ufffdresilient\ufffdand\ufffdsustainable\ufffdwater\ufffdresources\ufffdmanagement, 20    Zimbabwe Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment (2021)\f Table 2 below summarises these actions in greater detail. On-going development of the NAP will lead to a more expansive list of adaptation measures."


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"Available at:   introducing-the-transnational-climate-impacts-index-indicators-of-country-level-exposure-methodology-report.pdf 10  World Bank staff estimates based on IMF balance of payments data, and World Bank and OECD GDP estimates.\f \u2022\ufffd Importance\ufffdof\ufffdForeign\ufffdDirect\ufffdInvestments\ufffd(FDI). Zimbabwe\u2019s net inflows of FDI made up 3% of its GDP in 2018.11  However, assets may lose value and returns on investment may be disrupted or reduced either suddenly or gradually due to climate change, resulting in lower investments over time. \u2022\ufffd Immigration\ufffdfrom\ufffdclimate-vulnerable\ufffdcountries.\ufffdZimbabwe currently hosts 9,000 refugees."


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"Based on the status of current budget provisions, the total domestic support through the national government needed to build resilience of the agricultural sector is estimated at US$8.725. The required international support for adapting the agricultural sector of Zimbabwe is estimated at US$26.175 billion by 2030 under BAU. Further collation and analysis of information on support for financial investment, capacity development and technology generation and transfer in adaptation initiatives is however required."


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"Being dependent on food imports from abroad, Zimbabwe is exposed to climate-related disruptions in the availability, price or quality of food products. Table 1: Existing and potential climate impacts in Zimbabwe summarised by type of capital Human capital Exposure All citizens are exposed directly or indirectly to climate-related hazards that impact them and their assets. Among citizens, marginalised groups are more exposed as their geographical location is determined by lower costs of living."


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"Below are some of the clean energy initiatives under consideration: \uf0b7 Replacing more than a million incandescent bulbs with compact fluorescent lamps (CFLs) to more than 164,654 houses saving 42 MW. \uf0b7 Recognising and rewarding companies making efforts in the area of energy efficiency and carbon footprint as a way of promoting good behaviour. \uf0b7 Stepwise increase in Kariba Power Station (hydro power plant) from 666 to 750 MW and then 1050MW.  Work on this plant is underway (Figure 3a)."


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"Best practices and experience related to the preparation of the NDC; The GHG emissions inventory was compiled using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and the mitigation analysis conducted in the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP) model software. c. Other contextual aspirations and priorities acknowledged when joining the Paris Agreement; The achievement of the NDC target is subject to: 1. full implementation by developed countries of their commitments relating to finance, technology and capacity pursuant to Article 4 of the Convention; 2. full, effective and sustained implementation of the Convention; 3. receiving contributions by developed countries on all elements set out in paragraph 5 of decision 1/CP.17\u201d relating to mitigation, adaptation, finance, technology development and transfer, and capacity-building in the context of a global and comprehensive agreement for the period beyond 2020. b."


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"Beyond National Climate Policy, and NCCRS, key adaptation policy documents include the NAP Roadmap, the Green Climate Fund Country Programme, Zimbabwe Climate Change Gender Action Plan, draft National Water Resources Master Plan (2020-2040), National Agriculture Policy Framework (2018-2030), and the Zimbabwe Climate Smart Agriculture Investment Plan (CSAIP).\f The mitigation measures presented in this Revised NDC are also codified in existing policies and plans. Beyond the National Climate Policy, NCCRS and LEDS, several sector level policies will also support implementation of the mitigation measures."


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"Black Carbon (a short-lived climate pollutant), and co- emitted air pollutants (PM2.5, NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs), carbon monoxide (CO) were also included in the analysis. Business-as-usual (BAU) scenario The INDC BAU baseline focused solely on per capita energy emissions. Zimbabwean per capita energy emissions were projected 2030 under business as usual. Updated to include all IPCC sectors. National total emissions in the base data period ranged between 25.24 MtCO2e in 2011 and 41.66 MtCO2eq in 2015. Emissions in 2017 were 35.84 MtCO2eq."


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"By improving the availability and supply of water, this measure would also benefit women directly by reducing their burden associated with fetching water, allowing them to access other productive activities. Increases in water efficiency will also bring mitigation benefits, as less resources would be used in water provision. Furthermore, crop and pasture productivity would increase, which would increase carbon-capture capacity through roots and residues, all other things being equal."


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"Climate finance, including finance channelled through the National Climate Change Fund and Climate Finance Facility currently under development (see below), will crowd in the private sector through blended finance and results-based approaches to de-risk markets, scale up impact investments and increase participation in implementing climate actions."


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"Climate impacts Existing studies consider the climate impacts that Zimbabwe currently experiences. These studies have been reviewed, and their content is summarised below. All sectors of the economy have suffered direct impacts as a result of their exposure to hazards resulting from climate variability and change. Climate impacts are not confined to specific sectors due to the interconnections between vulnerabilities. Slow-onset climate changes and extreme weather events impact environmental, societal and economic assets upon which all sectors depend."


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"Climate projections suggest that climate-related hazards associated with slow-onset changes in temperature and precipitation, and with the magnitude and frequency of extreme events, will continue to worsen. In order to avoid further similar and more damaging impacts, Zimbabwe urgently needs to implement a wide range of adaptation measures, which seek to reduce climate sensitivities, increase adaptive capacities and/or reduce direct or indirect exposure to climate-related hazards."


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"Co-benefits of identified mitigation measures Adaptation is the over-riding priority for Zimbabwe given her vulnerability profile, an assessment of all the proposed mitigation actions was done to understand any impacts on climate resilience, positive or negative. Several mitigation measures included in the revised NDC have adaptation and broader sustainable development co-benefits including but not limited to the following: \u2022\ufffd Increased\ufffduptake\ufffdof\ufffdbiogas\ufffdwill\ufffdlead\ufffdto\ufffdimproved\ufffdair\ufffdquality,\ufffdhealth\ufffdand\ufffdgender\ufffdoutcomes. \u2022\ufffd Increased\ufffdforested\ufffdland\ufffdand\ufffdforest\ufffdplantations\ufffdwill\ufffdlead\ufffdto\ufffdimprovements\ufffdin\ufffdsoil\ufffdstability,\ufffdsoil\ufffd quality, groundwater quality, regulation of surface runoff, etc. thereby decreasing the sensitivity of all sectors that rely on these ecosystems."


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"Co-benefits: All of these measures would have multiple benefits beyond the emissions reductions associated with them, including gender inclusivity, job creation, and improved health and air quality. Some of the measures would also improve Zimbabwe\u2019s adaptive capacity (reduced burning) and lead to increased value chain development for timber and non-timber forest products (reduced burning and forest restoration). Waste Since 1990, GHG emissions from the waste sector gradually increased, reaching 1.76 MtCO2eq in 2017."


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"Co-benefits: The measures also offer a range of additional benefits, such as enhanced competitiveness through cost reductions (especially related to clinker substitution in cement production), gender inclusive employment creation along the supply value chain, health benefits through improved local air quality and reduced negative impacts on vegetation because of a decrease in associated NOx emissions from nitric acid production."


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"Co-emitted air pollutants were also included in the analysis.23   The table below outlines the coverage of sectors and GHGs in the Revised NDC. Based on this analysis, Zimbabwe has strengthened its mitigation contribution to be a 40% reduction in per capita GHG emissions below the projected business as usual scenario, a significant 7% increase from the 33% reduction in per capita emissions targeted for the INDC. Achieving this increased target will require considerable support from the international community."


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"Common factors that determine the climate vulnerability (i.e., high climate sensitivities and low adaptive capacities) of Zimbabwe across sectors include, in no particular order: \u2022\ufffd Insufficient\ufffdwater\ufffdavailability\ufffddue to a predominantly dry climate, compounded by growing competition for water resources increases all sectors\u2019 vulnerability to the potential impact of water shortages on production levels. \u2022\ufffd Poverty,\ufffdwhich limits access to socio-economic services and to social and financial capital that may otherwise help populations adapt to the impact of climate change."


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"Construction work at the Powerhouse of Kariba South Expansion project: b) Liquefied petroleum gas imports during the period 2000-2014  \uf0b7 Mini-hydros are already being constructed by Independent Power Producers (IPPs) and the mini-hydro installed capacity and is expected to rise to 27 MW early 2016. \uf0b7 Solar energy, which has a huge potential of reducing especially if combined with hydro \u2013power is already under consideration, Fig 4.  Figure 4."


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"Cost estimates were mainly drawn from the Low Emissions Development Strategy, with additional input from the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Model (GACMO of 14 August 2015). f. Information on the circumstances under which the Party may update the values of the reference indicators Zimbabwe may update the reference indicator under 1.b to account for significant changes (such as changes in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) or population projections or any technical errors identified) at the point of its next NDC submission, to be prepared in accordance with the Paris Agreement provisions in 2024. a."


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"Currently the sector is relying on a US$0.5 billion allocation from the national treasury. Up to US$35 billion will be cumulatively needed by 2030 under Business As Usual (BAU) for adapting to climate change in the agriculture sector. Zimbabwe aims to achieve this through joint efforts between the government, private sector, development partners and technology and funding mechanisms foreseen in context of the UNFCCC."


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"Develop and promote resilient water resources management Description Zimbabwe will implement actions which: (i) support the use of best available hydro-climatic information to improve water resource management (water resource assessment), (ii) explore options to increase water supply from surface and underground (water demand management and water use), considering gender differences in water supply and access, and (iii) support the management of extreme events (integrated flood management, drought management). Adaptation benefits All sectors are vulnerable to climate change as a result of water scarcity."


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"Domestic institutional arrangements, public participation and engagement with local communities and indigenous peoples, in a gender-responsive manner; The Climate Change Management Department (CCMD) under the Ministry responsible for climate change management is responsible for the coordination of NDC implementation and international reporting. Institutional responsibilities for implementation of the various adaptation and mitigation measures are spread across government ministries, local authorities and private sector organisations."


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"Each of the policies and strategies mentioned above fed into the NDC revision process and will be key components to its implementation. These and other policies or planning frameworks are discussed further in Section 5. Zimbabwe used a whole of government and whole of society approach to update the NDC, ensuring that the process was a collaborative and inclusive one."


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"Enhance early warning and climate-related disaster risk reduction systems (including information management systems) Description Zimbabwe will take steps to: (i) enhance early warning systems, including through better information management systems (ii) provide the systems and knowledge to manage disaster risks at national and community-level, and (ii) support the coordination of responses to climate hazards and to climate impacts across sectors and geographies."


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"Ensuring the representation and participation of all Zimbabweans in the development and implementation of the NDC is critical to ensuring its effectiveness. In particular, the issues of youth and gender must be considered integral to the process. The specific sensitivities and vulnerabilities of young people and women to the impacts of climate change and their essential role in achieving the emissions reductions targets demonstrate their importance as key stakeholders in the achievement of Zimbabwe\u2019s revised NDC."


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"Equitability and adequacy  According to the National Inventory Report (NIR, 2015) the national emissions were 26,996 Gg CO2eq in 2000 which constitute 0.045% of global emissions. The country is a net carbon sink with a high  potential sequestration capacity owing to its forests that cover 45% of the total land area."


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"Figure 1: Spatial distribution of Zimbabwe average temperature increase for the periods of 2020-2040  In turn, average rainfall is projected to further decrease by approximately 10% with significant regional differences, although there is more uncertainty over these estimates. This will induce shorter rainy seasons and shifts in the timing of their onset and cessation. The intensity of rainfall events is projected to increase, which may increase flood events. However, projections of the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, particularly cyclones, are uncertain."


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"Figure 1: The distribution of Zimbabwe\u2019s emissions by sector (Source: SNC, 2012) \f  The country\u2019s total GHGs emissions contribute less than 0.05% of global emissions, making it a low emitter. Whilst, the majority of rural energy needs are met from firewood, candles and paraffin, the country can further reduce its GHGs and increase its sequestration capacity through scaling up the uptake and implementation of cleaner initiatives."


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"Figure 3: Total GHG emissions in Zimbabwe between 2010 and 2017 (MtCO2e)  Total GHG emissions in Zimbabwe are projected to increase by 110% to 75.4 MtCO2eq by 2030 under a business-as-usual (BAU) scenario if policies and measures to reduce GHGs are not implemented as outlined in Figure 4 below. 24   Note that this is a different picture from that set out in the INDC and in Zimbabwe\u2019s Third National Communication submitted in 2017, which stated that Zimbabwe was a net sink (i.e."


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"Figure 4: Total GHG emission projections from 2010 to 2030 for the baseline scenario  The updated GHG mitigation contribution As shown in Figure 5 below, using the Zimbabwean LEAP model, the revised analysis suggests total GHG emissions in 2030 can be reduced by 40%, to 44.7 MtCO2eq. Figure 5: Total GHG emission projections from 2010 to 2030 in the updated mitigation scenario  Figure 6 presents the per capita baseline and mitigation pathways showing a 40% reduction in per capita GHG emissions below BAU by 2030."


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"Figure 6: Estimated reduction in per capita emissions  Figure 7: Population and GDP projections  Table 4 presents the mitigation contribution as drawing on a range of measures across the different sectors. The biggest reduction in emissions from the BAU comes from the AFOLU sector (25.35 MtCO2eq) followed by the energy sector (4.2 MtCO2eq), with smaller reductions from waste (0.65 MtCO2eq) and IPPU (0.45 MtCO2eq) sectors."


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"Figure 8: Public and private sources of finance for implementation of the NDC The scale of funding required to implement Zimbabwe\u2019s NDCs commitments and Sustainable Development Goals, means that the Government of Zimbabwe supports the exploration of innovative approaches to promoting access to climate finance and broadening the array of funding available for adaptation and mitigation projects and activities.\f Climate-sensitive Public Investment Management Guidelines The Government of Zimbabwe is taking steps to ensure that domestic public expenditures are climate sensitive."


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"Finally, actions would reduce sensitivity to climate change by expanding the use of climate-resilient breeds of crops and livestock. Strengthening the resilience of agricultural value chains and resource use efficiency is expected to reduce the sensitivity of water, energy, waste, and biodiversity sector to climate change and variabilty. Industry and commerce\u2019s sensitivity would also decrease through increased stability of the agriculture value chain.\f Co-benefits 10, 11, 12, 13."


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"For climate forcers included in nationally determined contributions not covered by IPCC guidelines, information on how the climate forcers are estimated; Emissions of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs) were included in the GHG mitigation assessment. Methane and HFCs mitigation are included in overall GHG reduction target and were included using IPCC (2006) methodologies."


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"For example, higher evaporation rates cause reduced availability of water from surface and groundwater resources, which, in turn, leads to: \u2022\ufffd Decreased crop yield and crop failure in agriculture \u2022\ufffd Fluctuating availability, quality, and cost of agricultural raw materials for industry \u2022\ufffd Reduced hydro-electric power output from the energy sector \u2022\ufffd Constrained processing in the mining sector \u2022\ufffd Decreased attractiveness of tourism destinations \u2022\ufffd Sanitation constraints and increased burden of water-borne diseases for the health sector 16  Mpakairi, K.S."


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"For example, tropical Cyclone Idai and the resultant flooding and landslides in March 2019 destroyed bridges, roads, telecommunications infrastructure, agricultural land, crops/livestock and several buildings/houses with 270,000 people in Zimbabwe affected. These direct impacts then disrupt operations in key sectors, such as electricity, water and transport, and disrupt entire supply chains, such as fruits (bananas, pineapples) from Chimanimani District. The disruption of this national capital stock bodes ill for long-run economic growth and poverty alleviation and takes time and scantily available resources to restore."


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"For more information contact: Ministry of Environment, Climate, Tourism and Hospitality Industry Climate Change Management Department 11th Floor, Kaguvi Building, Cnr S.V Muzenda Street/ Central Avenue, Harare, Zimbabwe Email: climatechange@environment.gov.zw Website: www.climatechange.org.zw Facebook: Climate Change Management Dept Twitter: @ClimateZimDept"


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"For this reason, co-emitted air pollutants were also included in the analysis. All actions will be implemented subject to availability of affordable international financial support, investment, ability to leverage domestic resources, technology development and transfer and capacity development. The various funding, technology and capacity mechanisms related to the Convention such as the Green Climate Fund (GCF), Climate Technology Centre and Network (CTCN), Adaptation Fund, Global Environment Facility (GEF) and continued investment by development partners in the national climate change discourse will be critical."


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"Forced migration also hinders development by increasing pressures on urban infrastructure and services and increasing competition over scarce resources, thereby increasing the risk of conflict and resulting in worse health, education and other social outcomes among migrants. On the other hand, climate variability and change also has impacts on institutions, as it strengthens the need for implementing adaptation and social policies alongside economic growth."


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"Further technical information, as necessary; Not applicable g. The intention to use voluntary cooperation under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, if applicable. Zimbabwe intends to leverage on its resources through the sale of carbon credits or emission reductions units through international and regional carbon markets and/or carbon pricing mechanisms to mobilise more resources for managing climate change. 6. How the Party considers that its NDC is fair and ambitious in light of its national circumstances a."


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"Furthermore, Zimbabwe is a small contributor to global emissions, contributing only 0.07% of global emissions in 2017.25  Despite this, Zimbabwe is committed to ensuring a fair contribution to the Paris Agreement by demonstrating enhanced ambition, through an expansion of the mitigation contribution. Zimbabwe\u2019s INDC target covered only the energy sector whilst the revised NDC is now economy-wide with an increased emissions reduction target. Conditionality The mitigation contribution outlined above is conditional on appropriate international support."


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"Furthermore, the cost data does not take into account the expected benefits of climate action, both in terms of avoiding future climate change but also from co-benefits such as green jobs, improved health and air quality and better access to energy. As explained in section 4, the scope of gases covered by the mitigation contribution has been expanded to include Hydrofluorocarbons and Black Carbon. These compounds were assessed for their mitigation potential as well as any co-benefits associated."


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"Furthermore, the country\u2019s national economic blueprint, \u201cZimbabwe Agenda for Sustainable Socio- Economic Transformation (Zim Asset) was crafted to achieve sustainable development and social equity anchored on indigenization, empowerment and employment creation which will be largely propelled by the judicious exploitation of the country\u2019s abundant human and natural resources\u201d \u2013 (HE President R.G. Mugabe, 2013)."


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"Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press. Available at:   6  METHI (2021) The National Gender Action Plan; METHI (2021) Gender Analysis of NDCs\f \u2022\ufffd The\ufffdlow\ufffdlevel\ufffdof\ufffdawareness\ufffdand\ufffdunderstanding\ufffdabout\ufffdclimate\ufffdchange, its likely impacts and possible adaptation solutions, including in relation to sustainable management of resources. In the documents informing the development of the NAP, the following sectors are rated as highly vulnerable: agriculture; water; health; forestry and biodiversity; infrastructure; human settlements; and tourism."


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"Hence, existing climate impacts in Zimbabwe are summarised in Table 1 by type of capital (human, physical, natural, social, and financial) exposed to climate hazards rather than by sector.8 In addition to the direct impacts of climate change, Zimbabwe is expected to suffer from indirect impacts caused by spill-over effects from direct climate impacts in neighbouring countries and internationally. The Transnational Climate Impacts Index9 rates Zimbabwe\u2019s overall exposure to transnational impacts of climate change as 8 out of 10."


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"How the NDC contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2; The NDC contributes to efforts to limit global temperature rise to less than 2 \u00b0C, with an intention to aim for 1.5 \u00b0C increase compared to pre-industrial levels and to increase Zimbabwe\u2019s ability to adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. b. How the NDC contributes towards paragraph 1, of the Paris Agreement. See above."


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"How the Party considers that its NDC is fair and ambitious in the light of its national circumstances; This updated NDC represents a significant increase in ambition by expanding the mitigation contribution to cover all IPCC sectors (whereas the INDC mitigation contribution only covered the energy sector), more GHG gases (HFCs) and by applying a more ambitious target to all these sectors (40% below BAU, compared to 33% in the INDC)."


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"How the economic and social consequences of response measures have been considered in developing the NDC; Zimbabwe conducted a country climate vulnerability assessment, which informed proposed adaptation measures. The adaptation and mitigation measures were selected from existing national and sectoral policies. The economic and social consequences of the several of the measures were assessed during the development of those policies."


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"How the reference indicators, baseline(s) and/or reference level(s), including, where applicable, sector-, category- or activity specific reference levels, are constructed, including, for example, key parameters, assumptions, definitions, methodologies, data sources and models used; The LEAP model was used to evaluate the different mitigation options. Some cost data was used from the GACMO model. ii. For Parties with nationally determined contributions that contain non greenhouse-gas components, information on assumptions and methodological approaches used in relation to those components, as applicable; Not applicable. iii."


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"However, only four mitigation measures were feasible in this first NDC revision as some could not meet the criteria for meaningful mitigation analysis (for example, no clear local implementing agency or lack of robust data to allow for emissions estimates), and this was the case for the livestock and climate-smart agriculture subsector notwithstanding their conceptual role in driving emissions from the agricultural sector. Consequently, four mitigation measures selected for this round of NDC revision are listed in Table 7 below."


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"However, strategically beneficial mitigation actions present a good opportunity for reducing greenhouse gas emissions and at the same time enhancing socio-economic growth and improving livelihoods, in particular when such action is supported by finance, capacity-building, technology development and transfer. The country has a vast potential for renewable energy production such as hydro-power and solar, which combined with energy efficiency and other related environmentally sound projects to constitute Zimbabwe\u2019s INDC.  1.4."


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"However, the country continues to face multiple environmental management challenges that include pollution, poor waste management, deforestation and land degradation, veldt fires and is susceptible to perennial floods and droughts caused by climatic changes emanating from global warming.  The country therefore seeks to build resilience to climate change whilst ensuring sustainable development in recognition of its climate change vulnerability and national circumstances. In presenting its INDC, Zimbabwe seeks to contribute to an ambitious goal of limiting temperature rise to below 1.5oC."


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"ICTU category Response The GHG mitigation assessment indicates that the implementation of the policies and measures that can achieve Zimbabwe\u2019s NDC would result in some simultaneous reduction in SLCP and air pollutant emissions, for example: \u2022\ufffd Black carbon: <1% reduction in 2030 compared to 2030 baseline emissions (25.1 thousand tonnes) \u2022\ufffd baseline emissions (192 thousand tonnes) \u2022\ufffd NOx: 5% reduction in 2030 compared to 2030 baseline emissions (158 thousand tonnes) \u2022\ufffd NMVOCs: <1% reduction in 2030 compared to 2030 baseline emissions (751 thousand tonnes) These SLCP and air pollutant emission reductions would yield local benefits for human health through reduced air pollution exposure, in addition to climate benefits. iv."


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"ICTU category Response e. Information on sources of data used in quantifying the reference point(s) Historical emissions data from various sources: \u2022\ufffd Zimbabwe\u2019s National Communications \u2022\ufffd Zimbabwe\u2019s first Biennial Update Report \u2022\ufffd National Ozone Office \u2022\ufffd OICA data on vehicle population Future emissions, including both the baseline and mitigation scenarios, were calculated using the LEAP (the Low Emissions Analysis Platform) software, integrating official government projections of population and GDP."


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"ICTU category Response for\ufffdanthropogenic\ufffdgreenhouse\ufffdgas\ufffdemissions\ufffdand,\ufffdas\ufffdappropriate,\ufffdremovals a. Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals corresponding to the Party\u2019s nationally determined contribution, consistent with decision 1/CP.21, paragraph 31, and accounting guidance adopted by the CMA; Zimbabwe accounted for its anthropogenic GHG emissions and removals using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories. b. Assumptions and methodological approaches used for accounting for the implementation of policies and measures or strategies in the nationally determined contribution; The impact on emissions of policies and measures has been calculated using the LEAP model, along with official government projections of population and GDP."


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"IPCC (2006) Guidelines have been used to prepare this NDC. c. How the Party has taken into consideration paragraphs 31(c) and (d) of decision 1/CP.21; This updated NDC now has a target for per capita GHG emissions from all sectors, an improvement from the INDC which only covered energy sector emissions. d. Mitigation co-benefits resulting from Parties\u2019 adaptation actions and/ or economic diversification plans, including description of specific projects, measures and initiatives of Parties\u2019 adaptation actions and/or economic diversification plans."


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"Impacts on health from heat-stress are also increasing, as a result of extreme temperatures, which may be particularly harmful to children and the elderly, partly because of their physiological predisposition and limited ability to manage their heat risk. 11  International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics and Balance of Payments databases, World Bank, International Debt Statistics, and World Bank and OECD GDP estimates. 12  United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and UNRWA through UNHCR\u2019s Refugee Data Finder at unhcr. org/refugee-statistics."


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"Implementation of the NDC will also align with Zimbabwe\u2019s devolution agenda. Where appropriate, the stakeholders responsible for implementation will coordinate with the Ministry of Local Government to feed the NDC adaptation and mitigation actions into local implementation processes. The two metropolitan and eight provinces, as well as the relevant local authorities, will be engaged in the planning and implementation of the climate mitigation and adaptation actions with central government, through the Ministry responsible for climate change management."


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"In 2012, only a few women (3%) and men (4%) were served by other formal financial institutions, such as insurance companies.\f Impacts During droughts or floods, crop yields reductions lead to income losses from farmers. The estimated value of crop losses each year is US $126 million. In 2001, the estimated loss was US $321 million, increasing to US $513 million in 2008."


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"In 2015, Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) came together and adopted the Paris Agreement which aims to transform Parties\u2019 developmental trajectories and set the world on a course towards sustainable development."


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"In 2019, personal remittances received in Zimbabwe accounted for 8% of its total GDP.10  Direct impacts in the host country of the migrant worker (e.g., South Africa) may lead to economic disruptions for those receiving remittances and the macro-economy."


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"In 2020 Zimbabwe 1  Global GHG emissions including land-use change in 2017 were 53.5 GtCO2eq (United Nations Environment Programme, Emissions Gap Report, 2018.), Zimbabwe total GHG emissions in 2017 of 35.84 MtCO2eq taken from LEAP modelling. 2  United Nations Environment Programme (2020). Emissions Gap Report 2020. 3 Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND-GAIN) (2021). NG-GAIN Country Index. Available at:   work/country-index/\f launched the Climate-Smart Agricultural Investment Plan (CASAIP) which modelled future climate change impacts (rainfall, temperature) on crop yields, livestock incomes and diseases."


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"In May 2009, 98,592 cases and 4,288 cholera deaths were reported, with 60 of the 62 districts in the country affected. This affects employees\u2019 health and safety, and cause reductions in productivity across sectors (including agriculture, mining, energy, industry and commerce, tourism, and transport). In turn, reductions in productivity will lead to lower incomes and loss of livelihoods."


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"In May 2020, the Bulawayo City Council implemented a weekly 144-hours water- shedding programme following an acute shortage of water, when the Lower Ncema Dam was decommissioned after the water level reached an all-time low of 6.7% following an extended drought. Zimbabwe is estimated to experience a decline of 38% in national water availability per capita by 2050 due to climate change14. This threatens agricultural production, with 70% of the population standing to lose their main source of livelihood."


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"In addition to agriculture, climate impacts also threaten other sectors\u2019 activities. Degradation of natural resources reduces the number of tourists, leading to losses of income by about 7.3% of the formally employed in this sector. Extreme weather events and heavy rains affects mining during the rainy season, which affects an estimated 500,000 to 1.5 million artisanal and small-scale miners in the country who rely on mining as a source of income."


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"In addition to the stakeholders discussed in this section, Parliament and its committees will play a critical role in establishing the legislative framework and providing oversight for NDC implementation."


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"In addition, Zimbabwe\u2019s position as a landlocked country at the heart of Southern Africa makes it highly vulnerable to direct or indirect climate-related impacts on neighbouring countries, and more generally elsewhere, that may lead to transboundary or \u201cspill-over\u201d effects. These may be related to: \u2022\ufffd Trade\ufffdof\ufffdagricultural\ufffdcommodities,\ufffdas\ufffdmanifested\ufffdin\ufffdglobal\ufffdfood\ufffdprices\ufffdthrough\ufffdintegrated\ufffdsupply\ufffd and distribution chains; \u2022\ufffd Trade\ufffdof\ufffdnon-agricultural\ufffdcommodities,\ufffde.g.,\ufffdraw\ufffdmaterials\ufffdsupply,\ufffdmanufacturing\ufffdindustries; \u2022\ufffd Infrastructure\ufffdand\ufffdtransport,\ufffde.g.,\ufffdenergy\ufffdsupply,\ufffdenergy\ufffdinfrastructure\ufffdand\ufffdregional\ufffdtransportation\ufffd networks; \u2022\ufffd Migration\ufffdand\ufffddisplacement\ufffdof\ufffdpeople,\ufffde.g.,\ufffdthrough\ufffdchanging\ufffdtourism\ufffdflows\ufffdand\ufffdmass\ufffdmigration\ufffd (either forced or voluntary); and \u2022\ufffd Spread\ufffdof\ufffddiseases\ufffdand\ufffdinvasive\ufffdspecies."


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"In addition, the revised NDC presents adaptation action in response to the country\u2019s high vulnerability to climate change impacts. The crafting of Zimbabwe\u2019s revised NDC was informed by the National Development Strategy 1 (2021- 2025) which seeks to transform Zimbabwe into an upper-middle income economy by 2030. In this regard, Zimbabwe will pursue a holistic and balanced development trajectory, which seeks to balance national development, fulfilment of our multilateral international obligations, and sustainable development."


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"In comparison, the G20 are responsible for 78% of emissions.2 On the other hand, Zimbabwe is among the World\u2019s 50 most vulnerable countries according to the ND- GAIN Index.3 Hence, Zimbabwe\u2019s revised NDC and wider climate policy focuses as much on adaptation as it does on mitigation. Zimbabwe\u2019s economy is highly reliant on agriculture which, along with forestry, employs 70% of the population (directly or indirectly). Agricultural production is largely rainfed and sensitive to fluctuating weather patterns."


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"In its first NDC, Zimbabwe committed to a target to reduce per capita energy-related carbon emissions by 33% below business-as-usual (BAU) emissions in 2030. NDC 2020 shows increased ambition by expanding per capita GHG reduction target to cover all sectors, hence adding in the waste, AFOLU and IPPU sectors, as well as increasing the level of ambition of the per capita target to 40% below BAU by 2030."


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"In line with the Paris Agreement to revise the NDCs every five years, Zimbabwe presents its revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) which represents a fair and ambitious 7% increase in emission reduction from 33% in the first NDC to 40% in this revised NDC. Unlike the first NDC which covered only the Energy Sector, this NDC makes progress towards an economy-wide NDC as it includes the Waste, Industrial Processes and Product Use and; the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land-Use Sectors."


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"In particular, it would reduce sensitivity of women and youth by providing them with the knowledge and skills to maintain agricultural production throughout varying climate, and to diversify their sources of income beyond production. As agricultural value-chains largely employ women, they are more at risk of unemployment when the industry is exposed. Strengthening the resilience of the agriculture industry hence contributes to reducing women\u2019s chances of unemployment due to climate change21."


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"In particular, the team would like to express its gratitude to Tafadzwa Dhlakama, the NDC Partnership Coordinator; Gibson Guvheya, Nkulumo Zinyengere and Enos Esikuri (World Bank) for the technical guidance, facilitation and coordination of the preparation of this report."


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"In: Global Warming of 1.5\u00b0C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, H.-O. P\u00f6rtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma-Okia, C. P\u00e9an, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I."


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"Increasingly frequent and intense extreme weather events, including tropical cyclones, droughts, mid-season dry spells, floods and localised heavy downpours are also having a negative impact on other sectors of the economy. Sectors affected directly and indirectly include energy, infrastructure and industry, due to the many interconnections between different sectors\u2019 climate vulnerabilities."


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"Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) Industrial processes and product use (IPPU) relates specifically to emissions from industrial processes which transform physically and chemically materials and emissions from the use of products. Energy use and efficiency in industry is covered in the energy sector analysis together with combustion of fuels in industry."


id: c828e5da5ada3680fea8352255cc500a
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"Institutional and Financial Framework Institutional Framework To implement the Revised NDC, the Government of Zimbabwe will be mainstreaming climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts across policies and programs at national and subnational levels. In terms of governance, the Ministry responsible for climate change management is responsible for the overall coordination of NDC implementation and international reporting to the UNFCCC."


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"Intersectionality of gender, disability, poverty and child-headed households compounds climate change vulnerabilities and is of importance in relation to the principle of \u201cleaving no one \u2022\ufffd Weak\ufffdand/or\ufffdinadequate\ufffdearly\ufffdwarning\ufffdsystems, which prevent key sectors from anticipating extreme events and, hence, leaves them vulnerable to adverse impacts. Disaster risk reduction is also not fully mainstreamed in development planning and investments in climate proofing infrastructure are limited. 4  Government of Zimbabwe (2019). National Adaptation Plan Roadmap for Zimbabwe. 5  IPCC (2018). Annex I: Glossary [Matthews, J.B.R. (ed.)]."


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"Introduction Zimbabwe is Party to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and its 2015 Paris Agreement."


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"Investments in disaster risk reduction would also reduce the costs of rehabilitation and reconstruction, thereby providing wider economic and social benefits. Ensure climate-resilient infrastructure and design Description Zimbabwe will implement actions that: (i) provide the means and incentives for new infrastructure to be planned, designed, built and operated while accounting for future climate change, including extreme-weather events, and (ii) facilitate retro-fitting of previously built infrastructure to ensure it is resilient to future climate events."


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"It is projected to be around 957 kWh in 2030. c. For strategies, plans and actions referred to in Article 4, paragraph 6, of the Paris Agreement, or polices and measures as components of nationally determined contributions where paragraph 1(b) above is not applicable, Parties to provide other relevant information Not applicable. d. Target relative to the reference indicator, expressed numerically, for example in percentage or amount of reduction 40% reduction in GHG emissions per capita compared to BAU by 2030, conditional on international support."


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"It is strengthening the national institutions for coordinating, managing and implementing climate transparency activities as well as the national systems for transparent, consistent, comparable, complete and accurate GHG inventories. Zimbabwe is also establishing the Monitoring, Reporting and Verification (MRV) Framework, including the systems and indicators for tracking the implementation of the mitigation and adaptation measures and their impacts. Several of the stakeholders listed in the table below are identified as implementers of the revised NDC and data providers for the MRV system."


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"It therefore presents the latest updated status of the possible contribution and adaptation requirements to date. Needless to say, a more comprehensive process could still be done when there is sufficient time and resources."


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"Lack of knowledge, skills and technologies for improving water use efficiency in agriculture \uf0b7 Lack of financial resources of needs The Zimbabwe Agriculture Investment Plan (2013-2018) indicates that the sector requires investments of at least US$2 billion per year to fully utilise its production potential."


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"Long-term and near-term adaptation visions, goals and targets  A. Zimbabwe commits to promoting adapted crop and livestock development and climate smart agricultural practices through the following interventions: \uf0b7 Strengthening capacities to generate new forms of empirical knowledge, technologies (including conservation agriculture) and agricultural support services that meet climate challenges \uf0b7 Promoting the use of indigenous and scientific knowledge on drought tolerant crop types and varieties and indigenous livestock that are resilient to changes in temperatures and rainfall."


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"Low Carbon Development Pathway  In view of the high energy sector GHG (in comparison to other sectors), the mitigation component of Zimbabwe\u2019s INDC is therefore focusing on the energy sector. Action in this sector is supported by a number of initiatives such as National Climate Policy, Renewable Energy Policy, Bio-fuels Policy, Transport Policy and Forestry Policy and other instruments seeking to keep GHGs emissions at a minimal level and ensuring green development."


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"Many of the measures are likely to lead to creation of green jobs but ameliorative action might need to be taken to soften the blow of job losses (for example from moving from smaller commuter omni-buses to bigger buses to curb emissions from public transport). 28  Government of Zimbabwe Financial and Macro-economic Analysis of the Implications of Zimbabwe\u2019s NDC Implementation, and Elaboration of a Climate Finance Strategy for NDC Implementation (2021)."


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"Ministry responsible for Health Co-lead of implementing agency - adaptation Ministry responsible for Transport Services Co-lead of implementing agency - Mitigation and Adaptation Energy Ministry responsible for Energy Utility mitigation projects (large hydro -Zimbabwe Power Company), MRV data Zimbabwe Energy Regulatory Authority Provider of Regulations, Tariffs and Activity Data (Petroleum including ethanol and bio-diesel, coal, electricity) Ministry responsible for Mines and Mining Development Provider of AD (coal production and its secondary products) ZimStats Data on NDC MRV Zimbabwe Electricity Transmission and Distribution Company Reduction of transmission and distribution losses Rural Energy Fund Provider biogas digestor projects Ministry responsible for Transport Mitigation projects in transport Ministry responsible for Local Government Coordination of the implementation of mitigation and adaptation actions in the provincial and local authorities IPPU Ministry responsible for climate change management and environmental affairs Co-lead of implementing agency Data Provider (annual production data on Non energy products and use, ODS substitutes) Private companies Data providers Industry Associations Data providers Ministry responsible for Industries Co-lead of implementing agency (Mitigation actions in industry) AFOLU Ministry responsible for Agriculture Co-lead of implementing agency-Agriculture mitigation / adaptation Department of Research and Specialist Services (DR&SS) Data provider and implementing agency Forestry Commission FOLU Mitigation actions"


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"Mitigation Contribution of Contribution GHGs, GHG Intensity (Emissions per capita)  Energy  5. Target level The Mitigation Contribution for Zimbabwe is given as 33%* below the projected Business As Usual energy emissions per capita by 2030.  Figure 2. Emissions per capita trends with and without mitigation projects.  *This is a contribution target subject to the following conditions as a minimum: 1."


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"Mitigation priorities and actions Zimbabwe strongly supports the objectives of the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to well below 2\u00b0C whilst pursuing efforts towards further reduction to 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels. This section presents Zimbabwe\u2019s updated national emission baseline and target. The updated mitigation contribution draws on an economy wide GHG mitigation assessment and Zimbabwe\u2019s Low Emissions Development Strategy (LEDS)."


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"Most notably, spill-over effects may arise from: \u2022\ufffd Transboundary\ufffd water\ufffd dependency. All of Zimbabwe\u2019s River basins are shared with other countries, both as sources and recipients of headwaters for major rivers. The management of water resources in those countries and heightened competition over shared water resources may impact on water availability and supply; energy availability and supply; transboundary biodiversity conservation; tourism and green jobs. \u2022\ufffd Remittance\ufffd flows\ufffd from\ufffd emigrant\ufffd workers\ufffd from\ufffd Zimbabwe."


id: d3f3a6f180915c91adb146ae5aec5979
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"NCCF financing takes different formats including blending public, private and philanthropic financing to support climate change mitigation and adaptation projects at national and sub-national levels. The role of the IDBZ Climate Finance Facility In transitioning to a low carbon and climate resilient economy, the government through the Infrastructure Bank of Zimbabwe (IDBZ) is working on the establishment of a National Climate Finance Facility (CFF). Ministries responsible for finance and climate change management provide government oversight of CFF strategic operations and implementation among other independent trustees."


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"NDS1 also aims to increase electricity and coal supply to resurgent iron and steel sectors, both of which will lead to an upward trajectory in emissions under a business-as- usual (BAU) scenario. Since submitting the INDC, Zimbabwe has adopted several policies and strategies to reduce emissions and address climate vulnerabilities. Zimbabwe\u2019s 2017 National Climate Policy aims to build a climate- resilient and low-carbon economy. In 2021, Zimbabwe developed a Low Emission Development Strategy (LEDS), which includes mitigation measures across all the sectors of the economy."


id: 6eca59433787d2d3da93f1f0bd00cc
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"National Context & Vision Zimbabwe\u2019s updated NDC takes into account its low GHG emissions per capita and substantial vulnerability to the impacts of climate change.  Zimbabwe is a small net emitter by global standards, responsible for 0.07%1 (2.5 tonnes CO2eq emissions per capita; BUR1 2017) of global emissions."


id: ec79ac8d95df039bdfa8d7b61a7ddb57
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"National total emissions per capita in the base data period 2015. Emissions per capita in 2017 were 2.45 tCO2eq. National emissions are projected to be 75.39 MtCO2eq in 2030 under business as usual, a 110% increase in total GHG emissions between 2017 and 2030. National emissions per capita are projected to be 3.90 tCO2eq in 2030 under business as usual, a 59% increase in per capita GHG emissions between 2017 and 2030."


id: ae6de77152915fa731040b86be82c130
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"National total emissions per capita in the base data period ranged between 2015. Emissions per capita in 2017 were 2.45 tCO2eq. The NDC revision process incorporated impacts of COVID-19 on emissions trends and macroeconomic parameters, including GDP, which fed into the updated baseline. Emission reduction target The INDC emission reduction target was a 33% reduction in energy-related emissions per capita compared to BAU by 2030, conditional on international support. In the mitigation scenario, energy-related emissions per capita were projected to be 2.21 tCO2eq in 2030."


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"Natural capital Exposure Water (surface and underground), soil, pastures, biodiversity (hot-spots: Kalahari and Save-Limpopo eco-regions), forests (covering about 46% of the total land area, 179,748km2), and wetlands (there are more than 1,100 of economic value in the country that cover about 1.2 million hectares, with dambos being the most important wetland type in terms of economic and environmental benefits) are directly exposed to extreme climatic events and slow-onset climate changes across the country. As a result, their provision of ecosystem services is also reduced."


id: 71432b434e60ea9734faf95782050eb8
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"No allowance was made for natural disturbances within this updated NDC target. ii. Approach used to account for emissions and removals from harvested wood products; Harvested wood products were not included within this NDC update due to a lack of data. iii. Approach used to address the effects of age-class structure in forests; Not applicable\f ICTU category Response f. Other assumptions and methodological approaches used for understanding the nationally determined contribution and, if applicable, estimating corresponding emissions and removals, including: i."


id: 9b70c52fe02b2c24dd2168e5435655bf
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"On average, the Forestry and Other Land Use sector alone was the largest net GHG emitting sector between 2010 and 2017, with average net emission of 13 million tonnes. Additionally, the scope of gases covered by the mitigation contribution has been expanded to include Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and Black Carbon (a short-lived climate pollutant), in addition to the carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide from the INDC."


id: da6bdbc62e259af1020bc01ab66c53bc
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"Once the NAP has been finalised, Zimbabwe has the option under the Paris Agreement to update its NDC to include the more expansive list of adaptation measures that speak to the economy-wide vulnerabilities to climate change and re-submit it to the UNFCCC prior to the end of the next five-year cycle. Gender will be mainstreamed throughout the implementation of all adaptation measures."


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"Operationalization of the CFF is supported by the legal registration of an independent entity (Trust Deed Fund) and the development of operational procedures and systems for effective Fund Administration. The CFF focuses its financial offering to support green infrastructure projects that align to the IDBZ core sectors, which include energy, transport, waste, water and sanitation. In addition to the IDBZ core sectors, the CFF also provides support to climate smart agricultural and forestry practices."


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"Other Land-Use Fifth Assessment Report of the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change BAU Business As Usual BUR Biennial Update Report \u00b0C Degrees Celsius CAEP Climate Action Enhancement Package CCMD Climate Change Management Department CFF Climate Finance Facility CO Carbon monoxide Carbon dioxide equivalent COP Conference of the Parties COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa CORDEX Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment FAO Food and Agriculture Organization FOLU Forestry and Other Land Use GACMO Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Model GDP Gross Domestic Product GHG Greenhouse Gas ICLEI International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives ICTU Information for Clarity, Transparency and Understanding IDBZ Infrastructure Development Bank of Zimbabwe INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPPU Industrial Processes and Product Use IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency LEAP Low Emissions Analysis Platform LEDS Low Emissions Development Strategy LULUCF Land Use and Land Use Change and Forestry MAC Marginal Abatement Cost MECTHI Ministry of Environment, Climate, Tourism and Hospitality Industry MDAs Ministries, Departments and Agencies MRV Measurement, Reporting and Verification NAP National Adaptation Plan NCCF National Climate Change Fund viii Abbreviation Definition NCCRS National Climate Change Response Strategy NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NDCSF NDC Support Facility National Development Strategy 1"


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"Other challenges include the need to train engineers for the waste to energy projects and an underdeveloped market for organic fertiliser from compost. Co-benefits: Identified co-benefits include employment creation, improved environmental aesthetics and local air quality, reduced pollution to soil and water bodies and ultimately decreasing the sensitivity of all sectors that rely on those systems. The waste to energy measure provides an alternative energy source that can reduce demand on the current national grid, thereby reducing sensitivity to drought-induced hydro power electricity shortfalls."


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"Other factors that will increase elephants\u2019 vulnerability to climate change include the increased spread of diseases, moderate genetic diversity, and slow reproductive rates.17 Impacts on these natural assets affects all sectors that rely on their provision of ecosystem services."


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"Other sources of data include: \u2022\ufffd Low Emissions Development Strategy \u2022\ufffd National Development Strategy 1: 2021-2025 \u2022\ufffd 2017 System Development Plan \u2022\ufffd Zimbabwe Livestock Growth Implementation Plan \u2022\ufffd Continuation of historic trends from Fourth National Communication Data (for emissions from IPCC category Land, 3B) The Zimbabwe LEAP model contains references to all relevant data sources and key assumptions. The emissions reference values were derived from the relevant IPCC (2006) guidelines."


id: a8f4c5f89f7b62be1f5af62b0f2edde5
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"Other studies rate additional sectors in Zimbabwe as vulnerable: energy, waste, mining, transport, and industry.7 Climate vulnerabilities are further amplified by sectors\u2019 interconnectedness. For example, the agriculture sector\u2019s vulnerabilities are compounded by vulnerabilities in the transport sector, as agricultural products need to be transported along the value chains. Such interconnections exist between all sectors. For this reason, Zimbabwe is adopting an economy-wide approach to adaptation that seeks to address climate vulnerabilities across all sectors."


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"Overall net primary productivity is projected to decrease, as the rangelands  carrying capacities are reduced.  3."


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"Package of policies and strategies The Government of Zimbabwe is guided by Vision 2030, which seeks to transform the country into an upper middle-income economy by 2030, with a per capita Gross National Income of over US$5,000 in real terms. The principal government policy for achieving Vision 2030 is the National Development Strategy (NDS1), 2021 to 2025. NDS1 targets an annual GDP growth rate of above 5% and the creation of at least 760,000 formal jobs over the five-year period."


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"Physical capital Exposure Sectors rely on a large array of physical infrastructure and assets, such as water storage (>10,000 small, medium and large dams) and reticulation investments, energy generation and distribution infrastructure, mining infrastructure, transport (about 18,601 km state (2012 estimate) and 9,499 km gravel road network) and telecommunications infrastructure, manufacturing and distribution facilities, and tourism facilities."


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"Preparation of the NDC was done under the expert guidance and leadership of Washington Zhakata (Director of the Climate Change Management Department); Kudzai Ndidzano (Deputy Director); Lawrence Mashungu (Mitigation Expert); Tirivanhu Muhwati (Compliance Officer) and Emily Matingo (Adaptation Expert) at the Ministry of Environment, Climate, Tourism and Hospitality Industry (MECTHI). The main contributing authors are Ryan Hogarth, Richard Smithers, James Harries, Cl\u00e9mence Moinier (Ricardo Energy & Environment), Dingane Sithole, Sekai Ngarize, Leonard Unganai, Caroline Tagwireyi, Farai Mapanda and Samantha Magosha (independent consultants)."


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"Projected Climate Change in Zimbabwe Projected climate changes faced by Zimbabwe have been identified from review of the ICLEI Risk and Vulnerability Assessment Report (2020) and of relevant data included in the NAP development process.18 Overall, the country is projected to experience a\ufffdprogressive\ufffdreduction\ufffdin\ufffdprecipitation,\ufffdincrease\ufffdin\ufffd temperatures,\ufffdincreasingly\ufffdvolatile\ufffdweather\ufffdevents,\ufffdand\ufffdless\ufffddependable\ufffdseasons. Based on CORDEX data for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios,19 there is high confidence that Zimbabwe\u2019s mean annual temperatures will increase by 1 to 1.5\u00b0C by 2040 from a 1986-2005 baseline. Droughts will increase in frequency and intensity."


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"Projections of mean monthly temperature show an average warming of around 2\u00b0C by 2080. Maize (the country`s staple food) yields are expected to decrease by up to 30% and even more in worst case scenarios by 2030 already. The area suitable for maize production is projected to further decrease by 2080. Probability of years in which growing season is likely to fail in future due to drought is projected to be as high as 100 % in some parts of the southern region."


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"Quality Control and Assurance  To ensure technical compliance with key stakeholders, the project identified strategic technical Government technical experts who were consulted regularly throughout the whole development process for real-time alignment of the findings with the national vision. The first draft was also subjected to an international technical peer review to check on the process and output."


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"Rainfall is, therefore, the most critical climate component for Zimbabwe as already small changes can affect ecosystems, and all key socio-economic sectors.  Zimbabwe\u2019s economy is founded on sectors vulnerable to climatic changes namely agriculture, forestry, energy, tourism, and industry, among others. The agricultural sector which constitutes between 10 and 15% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is largely rain-fed and hence highly sensitive to climate change. The latest census of 2012 estimated the population of Zimbabwe at 13.1million, with the majority (70%) living in rural areas."


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"Reduced supplies of agricultural raw materials also reduce employment opportunities in industry and commerce, as was the case during the extreme drought of 1991/92 when a number of industries faced closure, particularly in the City of Bulawayo. In addition, insurance products are less available, as insurers run higher covariate risks, which are anathema to statistical models of insurance, as extreme events are more widespread and affect many clients at once."


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"Seasonal forecasts on crop yields and rangeland conditions are coordinated under the drought mitigation strategy framework. Preliminary findings show that an estimate of US$900 million has been utilised in implementation of adaptation actions in the previous 5 years.  The water shortages at the hydro power plants have resulted in huge reductions in electricity generation. In 2014 the mini-hydro plants were generating around 50% of their maximum ratings while the Kariba Power Station is currently (August 2015) operating at 63% because of the reduced water allocation."


id: f0c484ee42e1a2ea0d4b26903637b9ee
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"Section 1 summarises the changes between Zimbabwe\u2019s INDC and this revised NDC. Section 2 introduces the document and presents the national context of Zimbabwe and the international context of Zimbabwe\u2019s contribution. Section 3 outlines Zimbabwe\u2019s vulnerability to climate change and key areas for adaptation. Section 4 presents the approach to mitigation analysis and Zimbabwe\u2019s updated total and per capita national GHG emission baseline and target. It then details the mitigation priorities and actions across the Energy, IPPU, AFOLU and Waste sectors."


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"Section 5 presents the package of policies and legislation that will underpin implementation of the NDC, and Section 6 outlines the institutional and financial framework. Section 7 concludes with a table summarising the Information for Clarity, Transparency and Understanding (ICTU).\f Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation Outputs from the National Adaptation Planning (NAP)4 process were considered in the development of all adaptation-related elements of the NDC to reflect the progress of the NAP process and thereby facilitate the coherence of the two documents."


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"Sector level mitigation actions Energy sector The energy sector, including transport, is currently the second biggest contributor to total national GHG emissions in Zimbabwe, accounting for 33% of GHG emissions in 2017. The main source of GHG emissions in the sector is thermal power generation (37.71%), followed by residential (19.08%), road transportation (15.48%) and agriculture (13.84%). A summary of the mitigation measures from the energy sector is provided in Table 5. 27  The Ministry of Environment, Climate, Tourism and Hospitality Industry."


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"Sectors, gases, categories and pools covered by the nationally determined contribution, including, as applicable, consistent with IPCC guidelines; Sectors covered: Energy, Waste, Industrial Processes and Product Use (IPPU) and Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use (AFOLU). Greenhouse gases covered: carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and hydrofluorocarbons. Black carbon (a short-lived climate pollutant), and co-emitted air pollutants (PM2.5, NOx, SO2, non-methane VOCs, carbon monoxide) were also included in the analysis."


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"Selective De-N2O catalyst results in abatement of approximately 75% of all N2O emissions produced during nitric acid production. Implementation by 2023 LEDS HFC Phasedown schedule Kigali Amendment (Freeze Regulation There are some challenges associated with implementation of the mitigation measures in the IPPU sector. Implementing clinker substitution with fly ash or BFS in the future rests on the availability of these materials and consumer acceptance of lower clinker content products."


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"Several adaptation measures included in the NDC can contribute mitigation co-benefits, including: \u2022\ufffd Improvements in water resources management may have mitigation co-benefits in two ways: (i) increased efficiency in water use may increase renewable hydropower supply (displacing thermal power) and (ii) better water management in agriculture may increase crop and pasture productivity, enhancing carbon capture capacity through roots and residues. \u2022\ufffd Widespread adoption of climate-smart agriculture may contribute to mitigation efforts by increasing resource-use efficiency and increasing capacity of healthier soils to capture carbon."


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"Several mitigation projects have been excluded from this analysis for either being  unfeasible for the planning horizon in question, 2030, (the large hydropower generation projects), for lack of data availability (the livestock subsector), or for lack of a clear local implementing agency to advance that particular project (efficient cook-stoves). This framework extends to the other IPCC mitigation sectors below. Co-benefits: A number of benefits are anticipated from mainly energy efficiency and renewable energy production policies with few risks identified."


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"Several of the adaptation actions in Zimbabwe\u2019s NDC will have a mitigation co-benefit (see 4.d.1 for further details). The extent of the co-benefits will depend on the final set of adaptation measures and the specific actions taken to achieve these measures, which will be defined in the National Adaptation Plan. 4. Planning process a. Information on the planning processes that the Party undertook to prepare its NDC and, if available, on the Party\u2019s implementation plans, including, as appropriate: i."


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"Social capital Exposure Zimbabwe\u2019s societal stability relies on norms, relationships and networks, social structure and cohesion, and institutions and laws. These are all exposed to impacts resulting from climate variability and change. Impacts Climate impacts, including from extreme weather events, lead to seasonal and forced migration in search of livelihood opportunities. Men and the able-bodied migrate, altering the social structure of communities by leaving women behind and responsible for agricultural production in rural areas."


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"Solar powered off-grids Integrated Waste Management Changing thermal power station technologies Reviewing the Transport system REDD+ implementation Sustainable Energy Alternatives of curing tobacco  Sub Total 2  TOTAL FOR MITIGATION  Methodologies The accounting of Zimbabwe s mitigation contribution will be done regularly using the IPCC and any other approved methodologies. The population, energy balance and energy intensities will be updated periodically.  *GWP: The CO2, CH4 and N2O emissions will be calculated based on the adopted methodologies or any internationally agreed locally relevant guidelines.  7."


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"Some programmes have provided support for the management of water resources and irrigation, crop, livestock and income loss risk reduction. The government has been largely coordinating national and long-term projects while independent civic organisations were primarily focusing on short-term programmes limited in geographical scope. The national government is the main player coordinating climate-related disaster risk reduction programmes through the Civil Protection\f  Unit, which includes key agencies in charge of disaster early warning, response and recovery."


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"Specific information applicable to Parties, including regional economic integration organizations and their member States, that have reached an agreement to act jointly under Article 4, paragraph 2, of the Paris Agreement, including the Parties that agreed to act jointly and the terms of the agreement, in accordance with Article 4, paragraphs 16\u201318, of the Paris Agreement; Not applicable."


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"Specific projects, measures and activities to be implemented to contribute to mitigation co-benefits, including information on adaptation plans that also yield mitigation co- benefits, which may cover, but are not limited to, key sectors, such as energy, resources, water resources, coastal resources, human settlements and urban planning, agriculture and forestry; and economic diversification actions, which may cover, but are not limited to, sectors such as manufacturing and industry, energy and mining, transport and communication, construction, tourism, real estate, agriculture and fisheries."


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"Street solar lighting project in Harare \f  arrangement and Implementation process  The Ministry of Environment, Water and Climate as the National Focal Point on Climate Change, is mandated to guide the nation\u2019s compliance in all multi-lateral environmental agreements, including INDC.  On INDCs, the Ministry works in constant liaison with the Office of President & Cabinet. Other relevant Ministries and key stakeholders are involved to ensure implementation and alignment with the various sectoral plans and the broader national vision."


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"Table 2: Priority adaptation measures Develop,\ufffdimplement\ufffdand\ufffdscale-up\ufffdclimate\ufffdsmart\ufffdagriculture\ufffdsolutions\ufffdand\ufffd strengthen the resilience of agricultural value chains and markets Description Zimbabwe will promote the use and roll-out of gender sensitive climate-smart agriculture technologies and practices such as land  and water resources conservation, sustainable mechanisation, agro-ecology, water-efficient irrigation, renewable energy and energy efficiency, climate adapted crop types/varieties and livestock types/breeds, crop/livestock diversification, agro-forestry, integrated pest and disease management, post-harvest technologies, improved livestock management, fodder production and livestock feeding strategies, silvi-pastoral systems."


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"Table 4: Sectoral reductions in GHGs in 2030 compared to a baseline scenario Sector emissions (million tonnes GHG Emissions (million tonnes CO2- equivalent) 2030  GHG emissions (million tonnes CO2- equivalent)-\ufffdwith\ufffd mitigation actions Energy IPPU Agriculture,\ufffd Forestry\ufffd and Other Land Use Waste Total\f Fairness and ambition Zimbabwe\u2019s updated target represents a fair and ambitious contribution. Zimbabwe is a highly vulnerable country to the impacts of climate change and the priority is to enhance climate resilience."


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"Table 5: Summary of mitigation measures from the energy sector # Mitigation Measure Reference document % GHG reduction baseline Absolute reduction baseline tonnes) Estimated cost (Million Reduced Transmission and Distribution National Development Strategy Expansion of Solar: 300 MW in 2025 System Development Expansion of microgrids: Additional of 2.098 MW of capacity added through microgrids by 2028 Rural Energy Masterplan 4.1 MW biogas capacity added in 2024 ZERA annual report Energy Efficiency Improvements: Agriculture: 12% savings (2030 compared to baseline scenario); Commercial: 16% savings; Domestic: 22.08% savings; Manufacturing: 18.63% savings; Mining: 8% savings ZERA energy efficiency audit 2% biodiesel in fuel by 2030 Biofuels Policy, Transport fuel economy policy / Fuel efficiency improvement 2025-2030: Motorcycles: 2.2% per year; LDVs: 2.9%/ year; Buses: 2.6%/year; HDVs: 2.5%/year LEDS Public transport."


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"Table 6 outlines the IPPU measures considered in the mitigation analysis. Table 6: Summary of mitigation measures from the IPPU sector # Mitigation Measure Plan/\ufffd Strategy/\ufffd Regulation % GHG reduction baseline Absolute reduction baseline tonnes) Estimated cost (Million USD) Increased clinker substitution with fly ash 2050). LEDS Increased clinker substitution with blast furnace slag (BFS) (up to 16% by 2030, 20% by 2050). LEDS Decomposition of N2O emissions through use of a secondary catalyst."


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"Table 7: Summary of mitigation measures in the AFOLU sector # Mitigation Measure Plan/\ufffd Strategy/\ufffd Regulation % GHG reduction vs Absolute reduction tonnes) Estimated cost (Million USD) Increase area of forest land from 9.9 million hectares to 10.4 million hectares by 2025: Add 100,000 hectares of natural forest land per year between National Development Strategy Increase area of forest plantation from 68848 hectares to 118848 hectares by 2025: Add 10,000 hectares of plantation forest land per year between National Development Strategy Reduce area burned by 500,000 hectares between 2020 and 2025 inclusive of agricultural production landscapes National Development Strategy  Challenges to implementation include inadequate institutional and financial capacity for all measures apart from increasing the area of forest plantation, and a need for improved human and technical capacity to implement and monitor mitigation measures."


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"Table 8: Summary of mitigation measures from the waste sector # Mitigation Measure Plan/\ufffd Strategy/\ufffd Regulation % GHG reduction vs Absolute reduction tonnes) Estimated cost (Million USD) Waste to Energy: It was assumed that 42% of the methane generated would be collected in 2030 and used for energy production through waste to energy projects in the Bulawayo, Harare, Gweru and Mutare metropolitan areas LEDS 20% of organic matter composted in the long term Zimbabwe s Integrated Solid Waste Management Plan, Low Emissions Development Strategy In terms of challenges, Zimbabwe urban local authorities are experiencing major challenges in managing solid waste due to population growth, urbanization, industrialisation and increased use of non- biodegradable plastics and bottles."


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"Table 9: Key institutions for NDC implementation Sector Name of stakeholder Role Crosscutting Ministry responsible for climate change management Co-lead of implementing agency Climate Change Management Department (CCMD) Coordination of NDC implementation and international reporting Ministry responsible for Finance and Economic Planning Co-lead of implementing agency Coordination of climate actions in national budget, projects and programmes ZimStat and Environmental Management Agency Data on NDC MRV Department of Social Welfare under the Ministry of Public Service, Labour and Social Welfare Support for communities suffering from adverse impacts of climate change Ministry responsible for Women Affairs, Community, Small and Medium Enterprises Promote, protect and advance gender equality in the NDC Zimbabwe Gender Commission Ministry responsible for Youth Ensure equitable participation of youth in NDC implementation Ministry of Local Government and the Provincial Development Committees Mainstream climate change at the subnational level in line with Zimbabwe\u2019s devolution agenda Water Ministry responsible for Agriculture Co-lead of implementing agency-adaptation Local authorities Adaptation/mitigation data provider Health Ministry responsible for Health Co-lead of implementing agency - adaptation Ministry responsible for Transport Services Co-lead of implementing agency -"


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"The 2020/21 la Nina rainy season significantly slowed-down the artisanal mining sector, leading to reduced gold deliveries and foreign currency earnings, and translating into large macroeconomic impacts. Environmental stress functions as an aggravating factor which adds to systemic, economic, and demographic factors that shape individual access to livelihoods, access to resources and vulnerability and, ultimately, affect their capacity to move."


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"The 40% per capita emissions reduction target is therefore conditional on such support being forthcoming and provided in a timely manner. Zimbabwe looks forward to working closely with partners to implement this updated NDC and to deliver on its increased ambition. 22  This revised BAU scenario projected per capita GHG emissions in the energy sector in 2030 to be substantially lower than the equivalent figure in the INDC."


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"The CASAIP recommends technology packages and investments to crime-proof agriculture in different agro-ecological regions. In 2017, Zimbabwe adopted a revised National Gender Policy that includes a specific thematic area on gender and climate change and promotes the mainstreaming of gender in environmental and climate change policies and strategies. In 2022, Zimbabwe expects to launch a National Adaptation Plan (NAP) that will seek to mainstream climate change into national and sub-national planning processes in relevant economic and social development sectors."


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"The Climate Finance Facility (CFF) provides a platform to crowd in various climate finance sources and private sector investment for green infrastructure projects. The CFF is co-funded by the Government of Zimbabwe through the proceeds of climate related taxes for green infrastructure development. It draws capital from various financing sources including multilateral and bilateral financiers and the private sector and will deploy financing through diverse financial instruments including grants, loans, equity and guarantees."


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"The Constitution further stipulates that the \u2018State must take reasonable legislative and other measures, within the limits of the resources available to it, to achieve the progressive realisation of the rights set out in this section\u2019."


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"The Constitution of Zimbabwe (2013) gives every person environmental rights that include the right:  a) to an environment that is not harmful to their health or well-being; and b) to have the environment protected for the benefit of present and future generations, through reasonable legislative and other measures that\u2014 i. prevent pollution and ecological degradation; ii. promote conservation; and iii. secure ecologically sustainable development and use of natural resources while promoting economic and social development."


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"The GHG emissions inventory was compiled using the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and a Zimbabwe emissions model was developed using the Low Emissions Analysis Platform (LEAP). First, historical (2010-2017) and projected emissions (2018-2030) were assessed to produce a Business-as-Usual (BAU) scenario without mitigation."


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"The GHG modelling shows that emissions from the IPPU sector contributed 1.2 MtCO2eq (3.3%) to Zimbabwe\u2019s 2017 emissions, compared with 0.7 MtCO2eq (2.2%) in 2010, which is an increase of approximately 0.47 MtCO2eq (1.1%) over the period. The largest contributions to emissions in the sector originated from ferrochrome production (37%), followed by cement production (32%), the consumption of HFCs (25%), chemical production (6%), and insignificant amounts from non-energy fuel use, lime production, lead and iron and steel production."


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"The Government of Zimbabwe (GOZ) would like to thank these organisations for their support in delivering Zimbabwe\u2019s revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). GOZ also acknowledges the contributions of  focal points  in  the  relevant  Ministries, Departments and Agencies,  Development  Partners, Private  Sector, Local Authorities, Civil  Society,  Research and Academia who  contributed  to  the successful delivery of this revised NDC."


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"The INDC emission reduction target was a 33% reduction in energy emissions per capita relative to a 2030 baseline. This document presents Zimbabwe\u2019s Revised NDC including an updated per capita emission reduction target that applies to all sectors of the economy, relative to a 2030 baseline. The updated emissions reduction target raises ambition beyond what was pledged in Zimbabwe\u2019s INDC as presented in the headline box below."


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"The INDC was developed through engaging a team of experts who carried out extensive countrywide consultations with key socio-economic sectors, geographic specific players, private and public sectors, vulnerable groups, the academia, the National Steering Committee, various experts and policy-makers. The process reviewed available literature, objective studies, collated information on planned and running projects to come up with the INDC."


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"The IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) projected that the average per capita energy CO2 emissions for the Non-Annex I regions will vary from 2.8 to 5.1 tCO2eq per capita by 2030 (IPCC, 2007). The Zimbabwean per capita emissions is projected to be 3.0 and 2.3t CO2eq in 2030 for the BAU and with mitigation respectively. Zimbabwe has a low per capita emission because of its low energy per capita consumption."


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"The Ministry of Finance and Economic Development (MoFED), the national Treasury in conjunction with the Ministry responsible for climate change, will play a central role in the coordination and financing of climate related projects and programmes to be implemented by the key MDAs and other stakeholders such as development partners, private sector among others."


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"The Ministry works in constant liaison with the Office of President & Cabinet, Parliament of Zimbabwe and other relevant Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) and key stakeholders, to ensure implementation and alignment with the various sectoral plans and the broader national vision to fully embed low carbon considerations into all aspects of Zimbabwe\u2019s socio-economic development. Progress in climate actions will be achieved through coordinated efforts and effective resource mobilisation and deployment among various Government arms."


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"The NCCF plays a central role in financing the implementation of the Revised NDC. It seeks to mobilise climate change resources from different financing sources, including public and private, international and domestic resources to support country-driven climate change priorities based on national circumstances and realities. It covers a diverse range of sectors through different thematic windows and offer a wide range of financing instruments such as grants and concessional loans to support climate change mitigation and adaptation actions."


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"The NDC also accounts for other government policies and technical guidance documents on vulnerability and adaptation in Zimbabwe. Vulnerability to climate change and adaptation Zimbabwe\u2019s climate vulnerabilities identified here, as a function of climate sensitivities and adaptive capacities,5 have been determined from review of the country\u2019s relevant national studies."


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"The PIM Guidelines and Sector Manuals will be implemented through the national budget process. Accessing international climate funds and carbon finance The Government of Zimbabwe designated the Climate Change Management Department (CCMD) as the National Designated Authority (NDA) responsible for coordinating national efforts to package green projects and accessing climate financing from the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and other international finance mechanisms. As the NDA, CCMD will be responsible for ensuring that GCF support aligns with the actions outlined in Zimbabwe\u2019s NDC."


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"The Paris Agreement established a series of five-year cycles to increase ambition through Parties\u2019 submission of updated NDCs. Through these updates, Parties should aim to achieve peaking of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions as soon as possible (recognising that peaking will take longer for developing countries) and to achieve net zero GHG emissions by the second half of the century. The five-yearly updates of countries\u2019 NDCs should increase ambition, expand sectoral scope and accelerate implementation of climate actions."


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"The Paris Agreement recognizes that to significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change, all Parties need to reduce their greenhouse gas emission levels with the aim of holding global average temperature increase to well below 2\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels whilst pursuing efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5\u00b0C above pre-industrial levels."


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"The System will track public sector investment, development assistance, as well as private sector projects in the country.\f Information\ufffdfor\ufffdClarity,\ufffdTransparency\ufffdand\ufffd Understanding (ICTU) ICTU category Response a. Reference year(s), base year(s), reference period(s) or other starting point(s) The reference year for the target is 2030."


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"The Zimbabwe National Development Strategy (2021-2025) framework, for example, captures \u201cEnvironment Protection, Climate Resilience and Natural Resources Management\u201d as a national priority to achieve sustainable socio-economic development. Financial capital Exposure Incomes, savings, credit, insurance, and employment held by all citizens and/ or businesses are exposed to climate variability and change. Vulnerable groups with limited or insecure access to financial services and informal businesses are particularly exposed and represent a majority of the rural area population (65%)."


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"The aggregation of GHG emissions have been estimated, and will be reported, using the 100-year time- horizon global warming potential values from the IPCC Second Assessment Report. e. Sector-, category- or activity- specific assumptions, methodologies and approaches consistent with IPCC guidance, as appropriate, including, as applicable: i. Approach to addressing emissions and subsequent removals from natural disturbances on managed lands; Emissions from fires are included in the national GHG inventory as per the 2006 IPCC Guidelines."


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"The agricultural sector also provides 60 % of the raw materials required by the manufacturing industry and 40 % of total export earnings.  Studies also show that even if there is deep decarbonisation, climate will continue to change for a while, thus there is need to consider adapting to the current and anticipated changes. Against this background, Zimbabwe seeks to upscale national planning and implementation of adaptation actions that enhance resilience of all sensitive socio- economic sectors to improve the national adaptive capacity."


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"The baseline projection scenario is based on key national documents, mainly NDS1, accounting for the impact of COVID-19 and the LEDS.22  Second, a revised mitigation scenario was developed through an evaluation of the GHG emission reduction potential of key plans and policies that have been put in place in Zimbabwe since 2015. A total of 70 mitigation measures were identified from existing plans, strategies and policies."


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"The electricity consumption per capita of 944 kWh in 2000 dropped to 666 kWh in 2012 and is projected to be around 1,271 kWh in 2030. This means that the national energy consumption has to increase.\f  Despite its low emissions and high carbon sequestration potential, Zimbabwe is already working towards universal access to cleaner energy by 2030."


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"The emissions reference values were derived from the relevant IPCC guidelines. c. If applicable, information on how the Party will take into account existing methods and guidance under the Convention to account for anthropogenic emissions and removals, in accordance with Article 4, paragraph 14, of the Paris Agreement, as appropriate; Zimbabwe used 2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and Decision 17/CP.8 and Decision 2/CP.17 to report on its GHG emissions and mitigation measures. d. IPCC methodologies and metrics used for estimating anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals; See 5 (a)."


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"The findings showed that the nation has relevant legislative framework and development plans already in place, which are enunciated in various documents such as the Constitution of Zimbabwe, ZimAsset, National Climate Change Response Strategy (NCCRS), the First, Second and Third National Communication to the UNFCCC (the latter being finalized) amongst others.\f  The selection of mitigation and adaptation options was based on their economic, social and environmental benefits coupled with their existence in various plans as well as their feasibility."


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"The following agencies have been accredited to assist the country in accessing international climate finance: \u2022\ufffd The Environmental Management Agency has been accredited as the National Implementing Entity (NIE) to the Adaptation Fund. \u2022\ufffd The Infrastructure Development Bank of Zimbabwe (IDBZ) has been accredited as a Direct Access Entity to the Green Climate Fund."


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"The following documents and processes also provided guidance and useful reference material where there were gaps in addition to the use of proxy data: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth and Fifth Assessment Report; National Communications to UNFCCC; National Energy Policy; National Studies and Consultations; INDC Project Management Unit; Industrial Development Policy, Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CADDP) and Zimbabwe Agriculture Investment Plan (ZAIP), among others.  1.7."


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"The global climate target is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system so as to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. \f  1.2. Zimbabwe\u2019s Vulnerability to Climate Change  The country\u2019s location in the Southern subtropics makes it a particularly vulnerable country as rainfall is the key parameter determining its seasons, equivalent to how temperature determines seasons in the extra-tropics."


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created_at: 2023-10-04 15:13:30
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"The growth targets in NDS1 contributed to framing the revised NDC target. Since 2015, Zimbabwe has also adopted several important national and sectoral policies and strategies that will be central to the implementation of the NDC. Overarching national policies include: National Climate Policy (2017) that forms the backbone of Zimbabwe\u2019s climate change response. It aims to build a climate resilient and low-carbon Zimbabwe."


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"The implementation of the policies and measures to achieve the updated NDC, were estimated to reduce national total methane emissions by 10% in 2030 compared to a baseline scenario (Baseline methane emissions were 554 thousand tonnes). As an SLCP, Black carbon was also included in the GHG mitigation assessment, alongside co-emitted air pollutants, including organic carbon, fine particulate matter (PM2.5), NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds, and carbon monoxide."


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"The increase from 1990-2005 and 2011-2017 was due to increased generation and collection rates while the dip from 2006-2011 was attributed to the economic recession with low collection rates for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW). Compared to 1990, emissions in 2017 increased due to increase in volumes of MSW received at the landfill. Mitigation measures for the waste sector were drawn from the Low Emission Development Strategy and Zimbabwe\u2019s Integrated Solid Waste Management Plan and are listed in Table 8."


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"The increase in Zimbabwe\u2019s mean annual temperatures could potentially exceed 3\u00b0C by 2050, depending on the actual global emissions pathway achieved. Figure 1 shows projections under RCP8.5 for 2020-2080."


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created_at: 2023-10-04 15:13:30
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"The invasion of fall armyworm in 2016 caused maize yield losses estimated at 263,000 tons (about $83 million in value). Low rainfall conditions, for example during the 2015\u20132016 drought, caused livestock disease rates to increase, accounting for 61% of reported cattle deaths, particularly in Manicaland and Masvingo provinces. Between November 2017 and May 2018, a combination of late, heavy rains and a shortage in cattle dip led to over 3,000 cattle perishing from tick-borne diseases, primarily Theileriosis."


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"The key category analysis helped to identify areas with huge GHG reduction and adaptation potential.  Models used to evaluate the different mitigation options included the Zimbabwe Load Forecast (ZILF), LEAP and GACMO models. The selected options were presented to various stakeholders including Government, the business community and development agents such as UNDP, UNIDO, SNV, HIVOs, among others.  The INDC development process capitalised on ongoing initiatives such as the development of the National Climate Policy to provide forward-looking contributions in cases where there were gaps."


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"The major drivers of emissions and removals in this sector include deforestation due to agricultural expansion, fuelwood gathering, increased livestock, commercial logging, veld fires, harvesting construction timber, illegal settlements and mining, tobacco curing and charcoal making. Several mitigation measures were identified and considered for mitigation analysis in the AFOLU sector."


id: f385592f365a4c53a358a9521e3ce12f
created_at: 2023-10-04 15:13:30
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"The mitigation measures alone will cost an estimated US$4,834.47 million.  Zimbabwe\u2019s adaptation measures will be costed in the forthcoming NAP. A mix of public and private sources of finance will be needed to finance the adaptation and mitigation measures (Figure 8). The private sector will play an important role in financing and implementing the NDC, provided there is an enabling environment and appropriate incentives. Climate finance will be critical to unlock other sources of investment, including foreign and domestic sources of private finance and investment."


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"The policy guides climate change management in the country, enhances the national adaptive capacity, scales up mitigation actions, facilitates domestication of global policies and ensures compliance to the global mechanisms. The policy sets high level goals and institutional frameworks for climate change governance, National Climate Fund, economy-wide climate change mitigation and adaptation. It provides the national policy context for NDC revision and has sector specific strategies."


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"The policy recognises that women are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. \u2022\ufffd\ufffd National\ufffd Youth\ufffd Policy\ufffd (2013)\ufffd ensures the active involvement of young people in national development, and, among other objectives, aims to foster skills, entrepreneurship, environmental education and active participation in environmental conservation among the youth of Zimbabwe. The adaptation measures presented in this Revised NDC were drawn from a series of existing economy- wide and sectoral policies and plans."


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"The power station is expected to run at such levels till the onset of the rainy season. This requires the nation to have the adaptive capacity, hence the inclusion of an adaptation amount for the energy sector to the tune of US$1.5 billion of which US$300 million is own contribution. *NB: A more comprehensive exercise such as the National Adaptation Planning (NAP) process will advance the assessment of the countries  vulnerability, adaptation needs and costs."


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"The search for water, sufficient rainfall, fertile soils and good pastures for livestock has also triggered climate migrants who have settled at water sources, wetlands, riverbanks and grazing lands. The worst affected areas are in Manicaland Province. These new illegal and unplanned settlements pose social, economic and administrative challenges and generate natural-resource-use conflicts at a local level, and precipitate heightened environmental degradation in fragile ecosystems."


id: 1a61af23928e579c607f9b117f1fe9c1
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"The sector thus has multiple benefits, and Zimbabwe foresees Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emission reductions whilst improving agricultural productivity and enhancing national food security.  1.3. National Economic Development Pathway  Zimbabwe has a total land area of approximately 390 000km2 of which 45% of the area is under forest cover. Coupled with limited emissions from industry, the high potential sequestration capacity of its forests makes Zimbabwe a net carbon sink."


